Game plan
Rafael Nadal v Nick Hardt
Every number combines what Rafael Nadal does well with what Nick Hardt allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Rafael Nadal serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Rafael wins | v Nick | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 31% | 75% | 65% | 67.2%±10.1 | 44% ▲ |
| Body | 18% | 64% | 59% | 60.0%±13.0 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 51% | 69% | 58% | 51.5%±10.3 | 51% |
Optimal v Nick Hardt: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Rafael wins | v Nick | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 54% | 71% | 67% | 65.7%±8.7 | 54% |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 60% | 63.7%±12.4 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 28% | 75% | 70% | 73.6%±10.9 | 41% ▲ |
Optimal v Nick Hardt: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Nick Hardt serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Nick wins | v Rafael | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 70% | 66% | 62.9%±11.1 | 47% |
| Body | 18% | 60% | 58% | 55.1%±12.3 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 35% | 66% | 74% | 65.3%±10.7 | 48% ▲ |
Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Nick wins | v Rafael | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 68% | 67% | 71% | 66.1%±10.1 | 81% ▲ |
| Body | 13% | 63% | 57% | 57.0%±13.7 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 19% | 72% | 66% | 66.4%±12.8 | 19% |
Optimal v Rafael Nadal: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Rafael Nadal returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | +4.3 | +0.4 | +2.4 | +7.0±2.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 31% | +5.5 | +2.4 | +0.7 | +8.6±2.4 |
| FH down the line | 16% | +1.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.9±1.4 |
| FH slice through the middle | 3% | −4.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.1±1.4 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.3 | +7.5 | ±0.0 | +3.1±1.9 |
| BH inside-out | 0% | +6.3 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +9.1±3.8 |
Lean BH inside-out: +3.1±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (5711 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 38% | +6.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +6.4±2.1 |
| BH crosscourt | 19% | +8.8 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +7.6±0.9 |
| BH slice through the middle | 17% | −4.2 | +2.1 | ±0.0 | −2.1±0.6 |
| BH down the line | 15% | +4.2 | +3.3 | +1.4 | +9.0±3.3 |
| BH slice down the line | 7% | −8.4 | +5.7 | ±0.0 | −2.7±1.3 |
| FH through the middle | 1% | +7.7 | +2.5 | +2.4 | +12.6±2.4 |
Lean FH through the middle: +7.9±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (9039 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 48% | −0.2 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.4±2.6 |
| FH through the middle | 33% | −3.5 | −2.6 | ±0.0 | −6.1±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | +3.8 | ±0.0 | +2.0±2.2 |
| BH inside-out | 1% | +0.9 | +0.3 | −1.0 | +0.2±3.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 1% | −12.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −12.8±1.3 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.2±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2037 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 35% | −2.9 | +2.0 | +1.4 | +0.5±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +1.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0±0.8 |
| BH down the line | 17% | −0.2 | +1.8 | −1.0 | +0.6±3.6 |
| FH through the middle | 9% | −2.9 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −1.7±1.7 |
| FH inside-in | 8% | +0.6 | +1.5 | +1.0 | +3.0±2.9 |
Lean FH inside-in: +2.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (5854 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Nick Hardt returning
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Rafael | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 50% | +6.4 | +2.4 | +0.7 | +9.4±2.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +8.8 | +0.7 | +4.3 | +13.8±2.5 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +4.2 | +1.7 | −1.0 | +4.9±2.3 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | +7.7 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +7.3±1.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Rafael Nadal
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | +0.4±3.9 | +2.0 | −1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.2±2.9 | +1.1 | −1.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −2.0±3.6 | +2.9 | −4.9 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −2.0±3.6 | +2.9 | −4.9 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.2±2.9 | +1.1 | −1.2 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +0.4±3.9 | +2.0 | −1.5 |
Nick Hardt
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.0±4.0 | +5.0 | −1.0 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +1.1±1.7 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.3±3.8 | −1.0 | +1.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.4±2.3 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · rally | −0.4±2.3 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.3±3.8 | −1.0 | +1.2 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +1.1±1.7 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +4.0±4.0 | +5.0 | −1.0 |
Against Nick Hardt-like opponents
| Rafael Nadal v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 66.0% | 40.1% |