Game plan

Reilly Opelka v Todd Woodbridge

Every number combines what Reilly Opelka does well with what Todd Woodbridge allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Reilly Opelka wins, best of 3 62%90%: 37%–82% · best of 5: 64%

Serve points won 71.1% / 68.5% Reilly / Todd · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 62%serve 71.1% / 68.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Reilly Opelka's record against Todd Woodbridge's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Reilly	Todd
Direction choice	−0.19 ±0.11 better than 16%	+0.09 ±0.22 better than 79%
Shot selection	+0.14 ±0.11 better than 69%	−0.85 ±0.50 better than 4%
Execution	−1.23 ±0.68 better than 18%	−1.34 ±1.10 better than 15%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Reilly Opelka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Reilly wins	v Todd	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	77%	77%	80.9%±6.6	54% ▲
Body	9%	62%	64%	62.3%±13.3	0% ▼
T	41%	80%	81%	85.3%±5.3	46% ▲

Optimal v Todd Woodbridge: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Reilly wins	v Todd	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	82%	69%	79.0%±6.2	62% ▲
Body	7%	61%	62%	59.3%±14.5	0% ▼
T	44%	77%	72%	77.3%±7.9	38% ▼

Optimal v Todd Woodbridge: +0.9±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Todd Woodbridge serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Todd wins	v Reilly	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	71%	80%	78.9%±6.4	44% ▼
Body	11%	54%	70%	61.2%±12.5	0% ▼
T	43%	76%	83%	83.8%±6.0	56% ▲

Optimal v Reilly Opelka: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Todd wins	v Reilly	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	66%	81%	75.8%±7.0	56% ▼
Body	11%	61%	72%	69.9%±11.9	0% ▼
T	31%	70%	80%	78.6%±7.6	44% ▲

Optimal v Reilly Opelka: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Reilly Opelka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Todd	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	−3.8	+1.4	+1.9±2.6
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−0.8	+2.0	+2.9±4.2
FH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	−2.6	±0.0	−6.9±1.5
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−1.9	+2.1	+5.7±4.1
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.2	±0.0	−3.0±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (809 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Todd	Value
BH through the middle	57%	+6.4	−2.2	−1.0	+3.2±2.4
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−2.2	−0.3	+6.3±3.3
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−1.9	+1.0	−5.0±2.3
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+2.8	−1.4	+5.6±4.2
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−1.7	−1.1	−2.3±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (713 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Todd	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	−4.5	−0.4	−8.4±2.7
FH down the line	31%	−1.8	−4.5	−1.9	−8.2±4.5
FH crosscourt	15%	−0.2	−5.8	−0.1	−6.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.1	±0.0	−12.6±1.4
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.5	+0.2	−0.2±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.9±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (219 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Todd	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	−2.9	+0.2	−5.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	−3.5	−1.2	−3.6±3.0
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−1.5	+0.7	−1.0±4.6
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.3	−0.4	−3.0±2.1
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+0.7	−1.9	−0.2±3.1

Lean BH down the line: +3.4±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (482 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Todd Woodbridge returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Reilly	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	−3.8	+1.2	+1.7±2.7
FH down the line	41%	+1.7	±0.0	+4.4	+6.1±4.4
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	−2.6	+1.7	+4.6±3.9

Lean FH down the line: +2.1±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (91 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Reilly	Value
BH through the middle	32%	+6.4	−1.0	+0.8	+6.2±2.5
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	+0.1	−1.5	−5.7±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	17%	+0.5	+2.0	−1.8	+0.7±3.0
BH down the line	14%	+4.2	−3.9	−2.0	−1.6±4.4
BH crosscourt	12%	+8.8	−2.0	+0.3	+7.1±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.0±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (146 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Reilly	Value
BH slice crosscourt	29%	−4.0	+1.4	−3.2	−5.8±2.6
BH slice through the middle	18%	−11.3	−0.5	−2.8	−14.5±2.3
BH slice down the line	17%	−9.3	+2.2	+0.2	−6.9±3.4
BH through the middle	9%	−2.9	+0.2	−1.1	−3.8±1.8
BH crosscourt	7%	+1.0	−0.1	−2.1	−1.1±2.6

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +0.6±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (110 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Reilly Opelka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	−2.7±3.0	−1.7	−1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.8±4.1	−4.1	+1.3
FH to the middle · return	−3.3±3.4	−4.3	+1.0
BH to their backhand · return	−4.8±3.9	−2.8	−2.0
FH to their backhand · return	−5.2±5.0	−5.5	+0.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−9.2±3.6	−4.7	−4.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−14.2±4.6	−4.4	−9.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−9.2±3.6	−4.7	−4.5
FH to their backhand · return	−5.2±5.0	−5.5	+0.3
BH to their backhand · return	−4.8±3.9	−2.8	−2.0
FH to the middle · return	−3.3±3.4	−4.3	+1.0

Todd Woodbridge

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−1.1±5.7	−5.3	+4.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.0±4.6	−4.2	+2.2
BH to the middle · return	−2.0±3.1	−1.4	−0.6
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.9±3.3	−0.1	−3.8
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.6±4.4	−3.3	−1.4
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.0±5.0	−1.6	−3.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.0±5.0	−1.6	−3.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.6±4.4	−3.3	−1.4
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−3.9±3.3	−0.1	−3.8
BH to the middle · return	−2.0±3.1	−1.4	−0.6
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.0±4.6	−4.2	+2.2

Against Todd Woodbridge-like opponents

Reilly Opelka v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	70.0%	27.5%