Game plan

Roberto Carballes Baena v Andrei Cherkasov

Every number combines what Roberto Carballes Baena does well with what Andrei Cherkasov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Roberto Carballes Baena wins, best of 3 69%90%: 28%–94% · best of 5: 74%

Serve points won 61.8% / 57.9% Roberto / Andrei · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 69%serve 61.8% / 57.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roberto Carballes Baena's record against Andrei Cherkasov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Roberto Carballes Baena serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Andrei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	68%	69%	63.4%±10.2	59% ▲
Body	12%	56%	59%	51.4%±15.0	0% ▼
T	42%	72%	67%	64.0%±12.9	41%

Optimal v Andrei Cherkasov: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Andrei	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	63%	72%	62.3%±10.9	48% ▼
Body	15%	61%	65%	63.5%±15.2	14%
T	25%	63%	72%	63.2%±13.7	38% ▲

Optimal v Andrei Cherkasov: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andrei Cherkasov serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andrei wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	63%	71%	60.9%±9.8	67% ▲
Body	11%	63%	62%	62.0%±15.7	0% ▼
T	34%	66%	75%	65.8%±12.1	33% ▼

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andrei wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	69%	73%	69.9%±12.3	30%
Body	20%	57%	63%	56.8%±16.1	7% ▼
T	50%	66%	73%	67.5%±10.2	63% ▲

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Roberto Carballes Baena returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	+1.9	−0.3	+5.9±2.8
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+2.6	+0.9	+5.2±4.3
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+0.3	+2.3	+8.1±4.0
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	±0.0	−5.0±1.7
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.3	±0.0	−2.9±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (452 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.1	+0.8	+7.3±2.6
BH crosscourt	37%	+8.8	+2.0	+0.3	+11.2±3.3
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	+1.2	−2.6±2.2
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+0.4	+2.6	+7.2±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−0.1	±0.0	+0.5±1.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (393 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+0.9	+1.7	−0.9±2.7
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−0.8	+0.4	−2.1±4.5
FH crosscourt	13%	−0.2	+1.0	+1.5	+2.3±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andrei	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.9	+1.7	+1.8±2.7
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.8	−1.2±2.1
FH inside-out	11%	+1.0	−0.1	+0.4	+1.2±3.6
FH through the middle	11%	−2.9	+0.9	+1.7	−0.3±2.3
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	−0.3	−0.6	−1.1±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (297 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Andrei Cherkasov returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH down the line	62%	+1.7	+4.9	−1.2	+5.4±4.5
FH through the middle	30%	+4.3	−0.4	+1.6	+5.4±2.5
FH crosscourt	8%	+5.5	−1.0	+3.3	+7.8±3.5

Lean FH through the middle: −0.2±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (60 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH down the line	46%	+4.2	+0.6	−1.0	+3.8±4.4
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+0.8	+1.3	+8.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	+0.4	+0.6	+9.9±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +2.0±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (50 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	+2.2	+1.1	+0.5±2.5
BH down the line	28%	−0.2	+1.1	−2.4	−1.5±4.7
BH crosscourt	12%	+1.0	−0.7	+0.6	+0.9±2.7
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.4	+0.4	−2.1±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +0.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.9±4.5	±0.0	+4.9
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.2±4.6	+3.7	+0.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±3.5	+1.2	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±3.5	+1.2	+0.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.2±4.6	+3.7	+0.5
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.9±4.5	±0.0	+4.9

Andrei Cherkasov

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+4.8±3.6	+2.6	+2.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±4.5	−0.9	+2.9
BH to the middle · rally	+1.0±3.1	+1.2	−0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.2±5.7	+3.1	−2.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.4±3.6	−1.6	+1.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.3±4.6	−5.9	+3.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.3±4.6	−5.9	+3.7
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.4±3.6	−1.6	+1.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+0.2±5.7	+3.1	−2.9
BH to the middle · rally	+1.0±3.1	+1.2	−0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.1±4.5	−0.9	+2.9

Against Andrei Cherkasov-like opponents

Roberto Carballes Baena v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.8%	35.6%