Game plan

Roberto Carballes Baena v Filip Misolic

Every number combines what Roberto Carballes Baena does well with what Filip Misolic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Roberto Carballes Baena wins, best of 3 39%90%: 12%–73% · best of 5: 36%

Serve points won 62.0% / 64.2% Roberto / Filip · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 39%serve 62.0% / 64.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roberto Carballes Baena's record against Filip Misolic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Roberto	Filip
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.09 better than 41%	−0.02 ±0.16 better than 51%
Shot selection	+0.14 ±0.19 better than 68%	−0.30 ±0.17 better than 23%
Execution	+0.70 ±0.38 better than 89%	+0.12 ±0.88 better than 73%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Roberto Carballes Baena serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Filip	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	68%	70%	64.7%±9.6	45%
Body	12%	56%	59%	51.6%±14.4	0% ▼
T	42%	72%	74%	71.4%±9.8	55% ▲

Optimal v Filip Misolic: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Roberto wins	v Filip	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	61%	63%	72%	61.7%±9.8	48% ▼
Body	15%	61%	62%	59.7%±14.5	14%
T	25%	63%	67%	57.0%±11.7	38% ▲

Optimal v Filip Misolic: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Filip Misolic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Filip wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	76%	71%	73.8%±9.4	44% ▲
Body	7%	68%	62%	67.0%±15.1	0% ▼
T	62%	68%	75%	67.9%±8.9	56% ▼

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Filip wins	v Roberto	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	73%	73%	73.7%±8.6	45% ▼
Body	7%	68%	63%	67.6%±15.5	0% ▼
T	42%	77%	73%	78.4%±8.4	55% ▲

Optimal v Roberto Carballes Baena: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Roberto Carballes Baena returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Filip	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.3	+1.9	−0.7	+5.5±2.8
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+2.6	+0.2	+4.6±4.1
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+0.3	−2.4	+3.4±4.3
FH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.8	±0.0	−5.0±1.7
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.3	±0.0	−2.9±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +1.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (452 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Filip	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	+0.1	+1.9	+8.5±2.6
BH crosscourt	37%	+8.8	+2.0	−1.7	+9.1±3.4
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.9	−4.7±2.2
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+0.4	+0.6	+5.2±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−0.1	−1.0	−0.6±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (393 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Filip	Value
FH through the middle	45%	−3.5	+0.9	−0.9	−3.4±2.8
FH down the line	43%	−1.8	−0.8	+0.4	−2.1±4.6
FH crosscourt	13%	−0.2	+1.0	−0.8	±0.0±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Filip	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.9	+0.4	+0.5±3.2
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.8	−1.1±2.5
FH inside-out	11%	+1.0	−0.1	+0.4	+1.3±3.6
FH through the middle	11%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.9	−2.8±2.3
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	−0.3	±0.0	−0.5±3.8

Lean FH inside-out: +1.7±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (297 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Filip Misolic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
FH through the middle	68%	+4.3	−0.3	+1.6	+5.5±2.7
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	+0.3	−1.2	+0.8±4.1
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	+0.6	+3.3	+9.4±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: +0.4±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (71 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	+0.3	+1.3	+8.0±2.4
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	−0.6	+0.6	+8.8±3.2
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−0.6	−1.2	−6.0±2.3
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	+0.2	−1.0	+3.4±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Roberto	Value
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	+0.9	+0.6	+2.5±3.1
BH through the middle	34%	−2.9	−0.2	+1.1	−1.9±2.4
FH through the middle	31%	−2.9	+0.7	+0.4	−1.7±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (67 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.3±2.9	+2.9	+2.4
BH to the middle · rally	+3.3±2.0	+1.8	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	+3.1±2.2	+2.6	+0.5
BH to the middle · return	+3.0±2.3	+0.8	+2.2
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.9±2.3	+1.6	+0.3
BH to their backhand · return	+0.8±3.0	+1.7	−0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.4±3.8	−0.4	−3.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±2.7	+1.6	−3.4
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.2±4.1	+0.4	−1.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.1±3.2	−0.9	+0.9
FH to the middle · return	+0.5±2.5	+1.4	−0.9

Filip Misolic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.5±3.4	+2.2	+3.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.0±2.7	+1.5	+2.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.5±2.8	+1.5	+2.0
FH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.3	+1.4	+0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±2.4	+0.4	+1.6
FH to the middle · return	+1.8±2.4	+0.4	+1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.6±3.8	−1.1	+0.6
BH to the middle · rally	−0.4±2.0	+0.3	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	+1.5±2.3	−1.2	+2.7
FH to the middle · return	+1.8±2.4	+0.4	+1.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±2.4	+0.4	+1.6

Against Filip Misolic-like opponents

Roberto Carballes Baena v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.8%	35.6%