Game plan

Serena Williams v Helena Sukova

Every number combines what Serena Williams does well with what Helena Sukova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Serena Williams wins, best of 3 96%90%: 86%–99% · best of 5: 99%

Serve points won 66.9% / 53.2% Serena / Helena · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 96%serve 66.9% / 53.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Serena Williams's record against Helena Sukova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Serena	Helena
Direction choice	+0.34 ±0.04 better than 97%	+0.12 ±0.30 better than 76%
Shot selection	+0.47 ±0.05 better than 93%	+0.20 ±0.33 better than 66%
Execution	−0.04 ±0.27 better than 59%	−1.46 ±0.74 better than 11%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Serena Williams serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Serena wins	v Helena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	70%	65%	69.6%±7.4	43% ▼
Body	8%	62%	61%	65.4%±10.3	0% ▼
T	42%	79%	75%	84.5%±5.0	57% ▲

Optimal v Helena Sukova: +1.0±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +8.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Serena wins	v Helena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	75%	65%	74.5%±5.9	36% ▼
Body	6%	60%	55%	58.8%±12.8	0% ▼
T	49%	70%	68%	73.3%±8.2	64% ▲

Optimal v Helena Sukova: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Helena Sukova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Helena wins	v Serena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	68%	65%	66.6%±8.1	59% ▲
Body	10%	57%	53%	52.8%±12.5	0% ▼
T	46%	61%	66%	58.1%±8.6	41% ▼

Optimal v Serena Williams: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Helena wins	v Serena	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	45%	61%	66%	61.0%±8.6	30% ▼
Body	9%	66%	57%	67.2%±12.2	22% ▲
T	46%	71%	61%	68.5%±8.9	48% ▲

Optimal v Serena Williams: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Serena Williams returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	−2.6	+0.6	+2.1±2.4
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	−1.6	+1.3	+5.0±3.1
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	−0.4	+1.4	+2.5±4.0
BH through the middle	1%	+5.2	−3.4	−2.4	−0.6±2.9
FH slice through the middle	1%	−6.7	−0.7	+1.3	−6.1±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (2166 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+0.3	−2.4	+3.9±2.3
BH crosscourt	33%	+7.7	+1.3	+0.9	+10.0±2.6
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+1.1	−1.2	+2.0±3.4
BH slice through the middle	3%	−6.2	−4.5	−0.7	−11.4±2.6
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−2.8	+2.2	−4.7±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1939 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
FH crosscourt	43%	+0.5	−0.5	+1.1	+1.1±3.8
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	−0.1	−0.9	−4.2±2.7
FH down the line	18%	−0.6	+5.3	+0.5	+5.3±5.0
BH inside-in	1%	+2.0	−1.4	+1.9	+2.5±3.3
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	−0.2	+0.5	−0.7±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +5.4±4.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (750 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Helena	Value
BH crosscourt	51%	+1.5	+0.9	+1.9	+4.3±2.7
BH through the middle	30%	−2.6	−1.8	+0.5	−3.9±2.2
BH down the line	17%	−0.5	+3.4	−0.7	+2.2±4.3
FH inside-in	1%	+0.7	+0.7	+1.1	+2.5±4.0
FH inside-out	1%	+1.4	+0.2	+0.5	+2.0±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (954 returns charted)

Helena Sukova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
FH through the middle	33%	+4.2	−2.5	−1.3	+0.3±2.4
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+1.3	−4.0	+2.7±3.4
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	+1.7	−1.4	+1.7±3.7
FH slice through the middle	15%	−6.7	+0.9	+2.1	−3.7±2.1
FH slice down the line	5%	−10.5	+0.4	+0.9	−9.2±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (102 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
BH slice through the middle	37%	−6.2	+1.4	−0.2	−5.0±2.3
BH slice down the line	20%	−12.5	+3.4	−1.2	−10.2±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	17%	−4.2	+2.6	−2.8	−4.4±2.9
BH through the middle	14%	+6.0	−0.8	−1.0	+4.3±2.2
BH crosscourt	7%	+7.7	−1.4	−0.2	+6.1±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +8.0±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (175 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	+1.6	−3.0	−0.9±3.5
FH down the line	33%	−0.6	+1.2	+0.6	+1.3±4.1
FH through the middle	28%	−3.2	−2.2	−0.9	−6.3±2.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Serena	Value
BH slice crosscourt	31%	−7.5	−0.5	−1.0	−9.0±2.6
BH slice through the middle	29%	−11.7	+0.2	+0.8	−10.7±2.3
BH slice down the line	21%	−10.6	+0.4	±0.0	−10.2±2.6
FH inside-out	10%	+1.4	−1.1	+0.6	+0.9±3.0
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	+1.5	−2.1	−1.1±3.4

Lean BH slice crosscourt: −0.9±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (70 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Serena Williams

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−4.7±3.4	−1.7	−2.9
BH to the middle · return	−4.9±3.2	−1.1	−3.8
BH slice to the middle · return	−5.6±3.6	−5.4	−0.2
FH to their forehand · rally	−6.7±4.4	−2.1	−4.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−6.7±4.4	−2.1	−4.6
BH slice to the middle · return	−5.6±3.6	−5.4	−0.2
BH to the middle · return	−4.9±3.2	−1.1	−3.8
FH to the middle · return	−4.7±3.4	−1.7	−2.9

Helena Sukova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · return	+1.0±3.0	+0.6	+0.4
BH slice to their backhand · return	−1.4±4.2	+1.8	−3.1
FH to their forehand · return	−1.4±5.2	+2.5	−3.9
FH to the middle · return	−7.0±3.4	−5.6	−1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−7.0±3.4	−5.6	−1.4
FH to their forehand · return	−1.4±5.2	+2.5	−3.9
BH slice to their backhand · return	−1.4±4.2	+1.8	−3.1
BH slice to the middle · return	+1.0±3.0	+0.6	+0.4

Against Helena Sukova-like opponents

Serena Williams v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.1%	45.1%