Game plan
Solana Sierra v Anastasia Potapova
Every number combines what Solana Sierra does well with what Anastasia Potapova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Solana Sierra's record against Anastasia Potapova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −4.1 on serve, −5.8 on return vs expectation (350 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Solana | Anastasia |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.29 ±0.07 better than 7% | +0.15 ±0.08 better than 79% |
| Shot selection | −0.05 ±0.13 better than 41% | −0.06 ±0.09 better than 40% |
| Execution | −3.33 ±0.95 better than 1% | −0.14 ±0.50 better than 55% |
| Points left on the table | 2.85 ±0.17 lower than 20% | 2.34 ±0.11 lower than 84% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Solana Sierra serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Solana wins | v Anastasia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 65% | 65% | 64.0%±7.2 | 50% |
| Body | 21% | 60% | 60% | 62.5%±9.4 | 37% ▲ |
| T | 29% | 67% | 67% | 67.0%±9.5 | 13% ▼ |
Optimal v Anastasia Potapova: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Solana wins | v Anastasia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 37% | 61% | 65% | 60.9%±8.6 | 52% ▲ |
| Body | 22% | 58% | 60% | 61.8%±9.6 | 19% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 56% | 64% | 55.9%±8.3 | 29% ▼ |
Optimal v Anastasia Potapova: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Anastasia Potapova serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Anastasia wins | v Solana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 48% | 68% | 67% | 69.2%±6.8 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 20% | 52% | 68% | 63.9%±9.0 | 20% |
| T | 32% | 63% | 72% | 67.4%±9.4 | 17% ▼ |
Optimal v Solana Sierra: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Anastasia wins | v Solana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 43% | 67% | 65% | 66.8%±8.0 | 58% ▲ |
| Body | 17% | 61% | 56% | 60.9%±9.8 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 41% | 66% | 63% | 64.8%±7.9 | 37% ▼ |
Optimal v Solana Sierra: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Solana Sierra returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Anastasia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | +4.2 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +5.0±2.6 |
| FH down the line | 28% | +1.5 | −3.2 | −1.9 | −3.5±4.5 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | +5.3 | −1.0 | −3.0 | +1.2±4.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 7% | −6.7 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | −8.9±2.4 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 4% | −6.6 | −0.9 | +1.4 | −6.0±2.4 |
Lean FH through the middle: +5.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (240 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Anastasia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 36% | +6.0 | −2.5 | +0.8 | +4.4±2.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 28% | +7.7 | −0.9 | +1.9 | +8.7±3.5 |
| BH down the line | 18% | +2.2 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +3.5±4.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 9% | −6.2 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −7.5±2.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 5% | −4.2 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −4.9±2.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Anastasia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 44% | +0.5 | +3.5 | −0.6 | +3.4±4.3 |
| FH through the middle | 36% | −3.2 | −1.3 | +2.2 | −2.3±2.8 |
| FH down the line | 20% | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2±4.6 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (50 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Anastasia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 50% | −2.6 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −1.2±2.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 37% | +1.5 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +3.5±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 13% | −0.5 | −1.6 | +1.8 | −0.4±4.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (78 returns charted)
Anastasia Potapova returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Solana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 51% | +4.2 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +5.3±2.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 21% | +5.3 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +7.2±4.2 |
| FH down the line | 13% | +1.5 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +0.5±4.7 |
| FH slice through the middle | 9% | −6.7 | −4.7 | −0.2 | −11.6±2.5 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 4% | −6.6 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | −4.9±2.4 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (578 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Solana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 49% | +6.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | +5.2±2.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 26% | +7.7 | +2.0 | −3.6 | +6.1±3.6 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +2.2 | −0.5 | −3.2 | −1.5±4.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 7% | −6.2 | −1.9 | +1.0 | −7.1±2.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 4% | −4.2 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −5.8±2.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (405 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Solana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 51% | −3.2 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −4.3±3.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 39% | +0.5 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −1.0±4.4 |
| FH down the line | 10% | −0.6 | −3.4 | +1.3 | −2.6±4.8 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.8±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (162 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Solana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 47% | −2.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −2.5±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 37% | +1.5 | −2.4 | +0.3 | −0.7±3.6 |
| BH down the line | 16% | −0.5 | −1.3 | −2.1 | −3.9±5.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (221 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Solana Sierra
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · return +1 | +0.4±3.6 | −1.9 | +2.3 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +0.4±4.1 | +2.8 | −2.4 |
| BH to the middle · return +1 | +0.4±2.4 | −1.2 | +1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | +0.2±3.4 | −0.3 | +0.5 |
| FH to the middle · return | +0.1±2.3 | −2.0 | +2.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.5±2.5 | −1.3 | +0.8 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · return | −5.6±3.9 | −4.4 | −1.2 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −5.2±3.8 | −3.9 | −1.3 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −4.9±4.7 | −7.9 | +3.1 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | −4.4±2.4 | −4.7 | +0.3 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −3.7±3.3 | −2.4 | −1.3 |
Anastasia Potapova
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their forehand · rally | +2.0±2.6 | +0.2 | +1.8 |
| FH to the middle · return | +1.8±2.1 | +1.2 | +0.6 |
| FH to their forehand · return | +0.8±4.0 | +1.6 | −0.7 |
| FH to the middle · return +1 | +0.6±2.6 | +1.1 | −0.5 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −0.2±3.7 | +1.1 | −1.3 |
| FH to the middle · rally | −0.3±2.0 | +0.8 | −1.2 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | −7.6±4.1 | −1.8 | −5.8 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −5.2±4.0 | −2.8 | −2.4 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −4.9±4.3 | −1.0 | −3.9 |
| BH to the middle · return +1 | −3.0±2.4 | +0.3 | −3.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return | −2.7±4.3 | −3.1 | +0.4 |
Against Anastasia Potapova-like opponents
| Solana Sierra v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 52.6% | 40.3% |
| Players most similar to Anastasia Potapova | 3 | 48.9% | 33.0% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Iva Jovic, Karolina Pliskova, Anna Blinkova, Iga Swiatek, Belinda Bencic, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Sorana Cirstea, Kimberly Birrell, Varvara Gracheva, Eugenie Bouchard. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.