Game plan

Svetlana Kuznetsova v Clara Tauson

Every number combines what Svetlana Kuznetsova does well with what Clara Tauson allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Svetlana Kuznetsova wins, best of 3 30%90%: 16%–48% · best of 5: 25%

Serve points won 55.4% / 59.4% Svetlana / Clara · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 27%serve 55.0% / 59.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Svetlana Kuznetsova's record against Clara Tauson's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +10.3 on serve, +6.8 on return vs expectation (106 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Svetlana	Clara
Direction choice	+0.24 ±0.09 better than 90%	+0.21 ±0.06 better than 88%
Shot selection	+0.19 ±0.15 better than 64%	−0.45 ±0.14 better than 12%
Execution	+0.37 ±0.49 better than 75%	+0.95 ±0.46 better than 90%
Points left on the table	2.35 ±0.12 lower than 81%	2.46 ±0.09 lower than 68%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Svetlana Kuznetsova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Svetlana wins	v Clara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	66%	68%	68.8%±5.0	63% ▲
Body	12%	55%	55%	52.4%±8.7	0% ▼
T	40%	61%	67%	60.5%±5.8	37% ▼

Optimal v Clara Tauson: +0.9±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Svetlana wins	v Clara	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	63%	66%	63.5%±5.3	65% ▲
Body	12%	56%	56%	55.7%±8.9	0% ▼
T	38%	59%	67%	61.9%±6.1	35% ▼

Optimal v Clara Tauson: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Clara Tauson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Clara wins	v Svetlana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	72%	63%	69.3%±5.2	58% ▲
Body	13%	56%	64%	62.2%±8.1	0% ▼
T	44%	73%	71%	76.2%±4.8	42% ▼

Optimal v Svetlana Kuznetsova: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Clara wins	v Svetlana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	73%	63%	71.1%±5.6	55% ▲
Body	10%	57%	57%	57.8%±9.5	0% ▼
T	50%	66%	62%	63.0%±5.7	45% ▼

Optimal v Svetlana Kuznetsova: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Svetlana Kuznetsova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Clara	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+1.4	−0.9	+4.7±2.3
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.3	+2.0	−3.1	+4.2±3.8
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+1.2	−0.4	−5.9±2.4
FH down the line	10%	+1.5	+2.3	−1.7	+2.2±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	−0.3	−0.4	−7.3±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +2.6±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (597 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Clara	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.0	+1.7	−0.7	+7.0±2.2
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.6	±0.0	+5.1±3.1
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	+0.3	−0.8	−6.8±2.5
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+0.6	−3.7	−1.0±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	+0.2	−0.7	−4.7±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +4.8±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (541 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Clara	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+2.0	+1.1	±0.0±2.9
FH crosscourt	29%	+0.5	−0.1	−0.6	−0.2±4.3
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	+3.8	−3.6	−0.4±5.1

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (129 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Clara	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+1.6	+2.4	+5.5±2.9
BH through the middle	25%	−2.6	±0.0	+1.1	−1.5±2.3
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+4.1	+3.9	+7.4±5.1
FH through the middle	10%	−2.7	+0.7	+1.1	−0.8±2.5
FH inside-in	9%	+0.7	−6.1	−0.6	−5.9±4.6

Lean BH down the line: +5.8±4.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted)

Clara Tauson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	−1.6	+1.0	+3.6±2.2
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.3	−0.2	−0.6	+4.5±3.8
FH slice through the middle	15%	−6.7	−1.1	+1.6	−6.1±2.5
FH down the line	9%	+1.5	−1.7	+1.1	+0.9±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	+0.5	−0.5	−6.6±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (658 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.0	+1.9	+1.3	+9.2±2.0
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+1.0	+1.6	+10.3±2.9
BH slice through the middle	16%	−6.2	+0.8	−1.1	−6.5±2.4
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+3.0	+3.4	+8.6±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.2	−0.7	+1.1	−3.8±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (723 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.2	−0.1	+0.9	−2.4±2.9
FH crosscourt	37%	+0.5	+2.5	±0.0	+3.1±4.3
FH down the line	16%	−0.6	+0.5	−3.9	−3.9±5.0
FH slice through the middle	5%	−15.2	−0.4	+1.1	−14.5±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (154 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.5	−1.4	+0.4	+0.6±3.1
BH through the middle	38%	−2.6	−0.1	+1.1	−1.6±2.4
BH down the line	16%	−0.5	+1.9	+2.6	+4.0±5.1
BH slice through the middle	5%	−11.7	−0.2	−0.8	−12.8±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−7.5	−2.5	±0.0	−9.9±1.6

Lean BH down the line: +4.6±4.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (386 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Svetlana Kuznetsova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+5.8±4.6	+2.8	+3.1
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.3±3.8	+1.6	+3.6
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.8±6.1	+4.0	+0.8
BH to their forehand · return	+4.5±5.3	+4.1	+0.5
FH slice to the middle · rally	+4.1±3.7	+0.1	+3.9
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.6±3.5	+1.3	+2.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−3.7±2.1	−0.8	−2.9
FH to the middle · serve +1	−2.3±2.7	−1.4	−1.0
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.3±5.7	−2.1	−0.1
BH to the middle · rally	−1.8±2.0	+0.9	−2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.4±3.5	−1.3	−0.1

Clara Tauson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	+10.2±4.8	+5.2	+5.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+6.1±3.7	+3.0	+3.1
FH to their forehand · return	+4.9±4.2	+5.1	−0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.9±3.5	+1.7	+3.1
BH to their forehand · return +1	+4.3±6.5	+4.4	−0.1
BH to their backhand · return	+4.3±3.0	+1.9	+2.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.7±6.1	−4.1	−1.6
FH to their backhand · return	−2.4±5.1	−0.8	−1.5
FH to the middle · rally	−2.2±2.2	−2.3	+0.1
BH slice to the middle · return	−0.1±3.3	+1.0	−1.0
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.0±2.9	+0.8	+0.3

Against Clara Tauson-like opponents

Svetlana Kuznetsova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.6%	43.5%
Players most similar to Clara Tauson	1	70.0%	53.6%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Karolina Pliskova, Rebecca Sramkova, Linda Noskova, Barbora Krejcikova, Viktoria Hruncakova, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Sofia Kenin, Veronika Kudermetova, Anett Kontaveit, Sabine Lisicki. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.