Game plan
Tatjana Maria v Claudia Kohde Kilsch
Every number combines what Tatjana Maria does well with what Claudia Kohde Kilsch allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Tatjana Maria serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Tatjana wins | v Claudia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 70% | 66% | 69.9%±11.7 | 54% ▲ |
| Body | 14% | 60% | 61% | 63.4%±13.3 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 47% | 75% | 66% | 73.8%±10.4 | 46% ▼ |
Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.7±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Tatjana wins | v Claudia | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 24% | 74% | 60% | 69.3%±11.4 | 33% ▲ |
| Body | 11% | 54% | 55% | 52.8%±16.0 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 65% | 68% | 67% | 70.4%±12.6 | 67% ▲ |
Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Claudia Kohde Kilsch serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Claudia wins | v Tatjana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 33% | 69% | 61% | 64.6%±12.6 | 34% |
| Body | 40% | 54% | 61% | 56.9%±12.3 | 25% ▼ |
| T | 26% | 59% | 66% | 57.8%±13.3 | 41% ▲ |
Optimal v Tatjana Maria: +0.3±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Claudia wins | v Tatjana | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 20% | 67% | 58% | 59.4%±14.8 | 35% ▲ |
| Body | 42% | 55% | 58% | 57.0%±12.4 | 41% |
| T | 39% | 56% | 56% | 47.7%±13.2 | 24% ▼ |
Optimal v Tatjana Maria: +0.3±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Tatjana Maria returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice through the middle | 44% | −6.7 | +3.5 | ±0.0 | −3.3±1.7 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 19% | −6.6 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | −2.5±2.0 |
| FH through the middle | 14% | +4.2 | −3.2 | −1.0 | −0.1±3.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 11% | +5.3 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +5.9±4.2 |
| FH slice down the line | 9% | −10.5 | +3.7 | ±0.0 | −6.8±2.3 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +7.8±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (254 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 46% | −6.2 | +4.6 | +0.9 | −0.8±2.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 31% | −4.2 | +3.2 | +0.7 | −0.3±2.4 |
| BH slice down the line | 9% | −12.5 | +3.9 | ±0.0 | −8.6±2.5 |
| BH through the middle | 8% | +6.0 | −1.0 | −1.6 | +3.4±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 4% | +7.7 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +8.8±2.8 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +9.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (356 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice through the middle | 33% | −15.2 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | −12.2±1.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 25% | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.3±3.9 |
| FH through the middle | 16% | −3.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −3.5±2.4 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 14% | −14.9 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | −13.5±1.6 |
| FH slice down the line | 12% | −14.1 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −12.9±1.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +8.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Claudia | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 34% | −11.7 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | −10.4±1.7 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 30% | −7.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −7.3±2.1 |
| BH through the middle | 7% | −2.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −3.2±2.1 |
| BH slice down the line | 7% | −10.6 | +4.5 | ±0.0 | −6.1±2.6 |
| BH down the line | 6% | −0.5 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.8±3.0 |
Lean BH through the middle: +3.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (202 returns charted)
Claudia Kohde Kilsch returning
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Tatjana | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 67% | −4.2 | +3.8 | −1.5 | −1.9±2.9 |
| BH slice through the middle | 33% | −6.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −6.1±2.4 |
Lean BH slice crosscourt: +1.4±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Tatjana Maria
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +7.3±2.6 | +1.9 | +5.4 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +4.5±4.8 | +1.9 | +2.6 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.6±5.5 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −5.0±6.0 | −1.4 | −3.6 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −5.0±6.0 | −1.4 | −3.6 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.6±5.5 | +0.9 | +0.7 |
| BH slice to their forehand · rally | +4.5±4.8 | +1.9 | +2.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +7.3±2.6 | +1.9 | +5.4 |
Claudia Kohde Kilsch
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −0.5±3.5 | +7.1 | −7.6 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −8.8±4.7 | −3.6 | −5.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −16.0±4.8 | −8.5 | −7.5 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | −16.0±4.8 | −8.5 | −7.5 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −8.8±4.7 | −3.6 | −5.2 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | −0.5±3.5 | +7.1 | −7.6 |
Against Claudia Kohde Kilsch-like opponents
| Tatjana Maria v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 58.5% | 42.6% |