Game plan

Tatjana Maria v Peyton Stearns

Every number combines what Tatjana Maria does well with what Peyton Stearns allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tatjana Maria wins, best of 3 57%90%: 23%–86% · best of 5: 59%

Serve points won 58.9% / 57.6% Tatjana / Peyton · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 59%serve 59.1% / 57.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tatjana Maria's record against Peyton Stearns's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −6.2 on serve, −5.6 on return vs expectation (138 points); head-to-head: +2.3 on serve, +0.8 on return vs expectation (224 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tatjana	Peyton
Direction choice	+0.17 ±0.11 better than 82%	+0.01 ±0.13 better than 55%
Shot selection	−4.80 ±0.55 better than 0%	+0.40 ±0.24 better than 90%
Execution	+1.80 ±0.44 better than 98%	−1.43 ±0.74 better than 12%
Points left on the table	3.32 ±0.20 lower than 3%	2.46 ±0.11 lower than 68%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Tatjana Maria +1.69, Peyton Stearns −4.14. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tatjana Maria serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tatjana wins	v Peyton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	70%	69%	72.8%±7.4	54% ▲
Body	14%	60%	62%	64.2%±10.5	0% ▼
T	47%	75%	72%	79.0%±6.4	46% ▼

Optimal v Peyton Stearns: +0.9±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tatjana wins	v Peyton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	24%	74%	63%	71.9%±8.8	39% ▲
Body	11%	54%	57%	55.3%±12.2	0% ▼
T	65%	68%	61%	64.8%±8.3	61% ▼

Optimal v Peyton Stearns: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Peyton Stearns serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Peyton wins	v Tatjana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	58%	61%	52.1%±8.7	23% ▼
Body	33%	59%	61%	62.6%±8.6	33%
T	29%	62%	66%	60.7%±9.0	44% ▲

Optimal v Tatjana Maria: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Peyton wins	v Tatjana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	61%	58%	53.1%±8.0	55% ▲
Body	23%	54%	58%	56.7%±9.7	25% ▲
T	36%	54%	56%	45.0%±9.4	20% ▼

Optimal v Tatjana Maria: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tatjana Maria returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Peyton	Value
FH slice through the middle	44%	−6.7	+3.5	−2.5	−5.8±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	19%	−6.6	+4.2	±0.0	−2.5±2.5
FH through the middle	14%	+4.2	−3.2	+0.3	+1.3±3.0
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.3	+0.7	+3.2	+9.2±4.2
FH slice down the line	9%	−10.5	+3.7	−0.5	−7.3±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +11.6±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (254 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Peyton	Value
BH slice through the middle	46%	−6.2	+4.6	+2.0	+0.3±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	31%	−4.2	+3.2	−0.2	−1.2±2.6
BH slice down the line	9%	−12.5	+3.9	−1.6	−10.1±3.0
BH through the middle	8%	+6.0	−1.0	−1.4	+3.7±2.7
BH crosscourt	4%	+7.7	+0.9	−0.5	+8.2±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.7±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (356 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Peyton	Value
FH slice through the middle	33%	−15.2	+3.0	±0.0	−12.2±1.8
FH crosscourt	25%	+0.5	−0.4	+1.9	+2.0±4.3
FH through the middle	16%	−3.2	−0.3	−0.3	−3.7±2.8
FH slice crosscourt	14%	−14.9	+1.4	±0.0	−13.5±1.6
FH slice down the line	12%	−14.1	+1.2	±0.0	−12.9±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +9.6±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (76 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Peyton	Value
BH slice through the middle	34%	−11.7	+1.2	±0.0	−10.4±1.7
BH slice crosscourt	30%	−7.5	+0.2	±0.0	−7.3±2.1
BH through the middle	7%	−2.6	−0.5	+0.5	−2.6±2.5
BH slice down the line	7%	−10.6	+4.5	±0.0	−6.1±2.6
BH down the line	6%	−0.5	−1.3	−1.4	−3.2±4.8

Lean BH through the middle: +3.8±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (202 returns charted)

Peyton Stearns returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.2	−0.5	−0.1	+3.5±2.9
FH crosscourt	28%	+5.3	−3.1	+0.4	+2.6±4.4
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	−2.9	−6.0	−7.4±4.6

Lean FH through the middle: +2.4±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (174 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
BH through the middle	37%	+6.0	−0.9	−2.0	+3.2±2.8
BH crosscourt	32%	+7.7	−1.0	−2.5	+4.2±3.6
BH down the line	13%	+2.2	−1.5	−6.2	−5.5±4.6
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	−1.5	+0.3	−7.5±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.2	−1.4	−1.5	−7.2±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (238 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
FH down the line	41%	−0.6	+3.1	−0.1	+2.5±5.0
FH through the middle	39%	−3.2	+0.2	+0.4	−2.6±2.8
FH crosscourt	20%	+0.5	−2.1	+3.2	+1.6±3.9

Lean FH down the line: +2.2±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (51 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tatjana	Value
BH crosscourt	28%	+1.5	+0.3	±0.0	+1.8±3.6
BH through the middle	24%	−2.6	+1.0	+2.2	+0.6±2.7
FH inside-in	16%	+0.7	−2.1	+3.2	+1.9±4.5
FH through the middle	15%	−2.7	−0.3	+0.4	−2.6±2.4
FH inside-out	10%	+1.4	−2.3	−0.1	−1.1±3.9

Lean FH inside-in: +1.5±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (144 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tatjana Maria

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+5.0±4.2	+1.3	+3.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+3.3±3.2	+3.9	−0.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.9±4.2	+1.2	−0.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±5.2	+1.8	−1.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.5±4.0	+0.8	−1.3
FH to the middle · rally	−1.5±2.7	+0.5	−2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−4.9±3.5	−5.4	+0.5
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±4.0	−0.9	−0.9
FH to the middle · rally	−1.5±2.7	+0.5	−2.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.5±4.0	+0.8	−1.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.7±5.2	+1.8	−1.1

Peyton Stearns

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−0.1±5.0	+0.8	−1.0
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±3.2	−0.1	−0.2
FH to the middle · return	−1.9±3.3	−1.2	−0.7
FH to the middle · serve +1	−2.3±3.2	+0.7	−3.1
BH to their backhand · return	−2.5±4.4	−0.3	−2.2
FH to their forehand · return	−2.6±5.1	−2.8	+0.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−10.6±3.8	−4.1	−6.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−10.3±4.5	−3.2	−7.0
BH to their forehand · rally	−9.9±5.7	−6.9	−3.0
FH to their backhand · return	−9.5±5.2	−3.1	−6.4
BH to their forehand · return	−6.7±5.6	+0.2	−6.9

Against Peyton Stearns-like opponents

Tatjana Maria v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.5%	42.6%
Players most similar to Peyton Stearns	1	52.1%	36.9%
Peyton Stearns (charted head-to-head)	1	59.6%	43.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Madison Keys, Xin Yu Wang, Tamara Zidansek, Lulu Sun, Katie Boulter, Nao Hibino, Jule Niemeier, Daria Saville, Misaki Doi, Ana Ivanovic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head

Tatjana Maria v Peyton Stearns Madrid R128 · Clay · 23 Apr 2024