Game plan

Tereza Valentova v Solana Sierra

Every number combines what Tereza Valentova does well with what Solana Sierra allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tereza Valentova wins, best of 3 81%90%: 32%–99% · best of 5: 87%

Serve points won 57.5% / 50.9% Tereza / Solana · tour 55.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 81%serve 57.5% / 50.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Tereza Valentova's record against Solana Sierra's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tereza	Solana
Direction choice	−0.19 ±0.10 better than 19%	−0.29 ±0.07 better than 7%
Shot selection	−0.15 ±0.18 better than 33%	−0.05 ±0.13 better than 41%
Execution	−0.48 ±0.63 better than 34%	−3.33 ±0.95 better than 1%
Points left on the table	2.94 ±0.16 lower than 14%	2.85 ±0.17 lower than 20%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tereza Valentova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tereza wins	v Solana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	67%	67%	68.7%±7.5	56% ▼
Body	13%	58%	68%	68.8%±10.8	0% ▼
T	29%	74%	72%	77.1%±9.0	44% ▲

Optimal v Solana Sierra: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tereza wins	v Solana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	70%	65%	69.6%±9.2	48% ▲
Body	13%	51%	56%	50.7%±12.5	0% ▼
T	55%	62%	63%	61.1%±8.8	52% ▼

Optimal v Solana Sierra: +1.0±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Solana Sierra serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Solana wins	v Tereza	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	65%	62%	60.7%±9.0	65% ▲
Body	21%	60%	59%	61.6%±10.3	8% ▼
T	29%	67%	61%	60.5%±10.9	27% ▼

Optimal v Tereza Valentova: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Solana wins	v Tereza	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	37%	61%	63%	58.1%±9.6	52% ▲
Body	22%	58%	58%	60.3%±11.8	13% ▼
T	41%	56%	66%	57.5%±9.7	35% ▼

Optimal v Tereza Valentova: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tereza Valentova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Solana	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	−0.1	+0.4	+4.5±2.8
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.3	±0.0	−0.1	+5.1±4.4
FH down the line	15%	+1.5	+2.2	−0.6	+3.2±4.7
FH slice through the middle	10%	−6.7	−1.0	−0.2	−7.9±2.4
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	+0.9	+1.7	−4.0±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (210 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Solana	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.0	+0.6	−0.3	+6.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	+0.8	−3.6	+4.9±3.7
BH down the line	21%	+2.2	+0.5	−3.2	−0.6±4.6
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−0.3	+1.0	−5.5±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−1.5	+0.2	−5.4±2.4

Lean BH through the middle: +3.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (239 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Solana	Value
FH through the middle	63%	−3.2	+0.1	−1.0	−4.0±3.0
FH crosscourt	23%	+0.5	−1.5	−1.4	−2.3±3.9
FH down the line	14%	−0.6	+1.6	+1.3	+2.4±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: −1.3±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (43 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Solana	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+1.1	+0.1	−1.4±2.7
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.5	−1.3	+0.3	+0.4±3.7
BH down the line	29%	−0.5	−3.0	−2.1	−5.6±5.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (139 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Solana Sierra returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tereza	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.2	−0.4	+1.0	+4.8±2.9
FH down the line	28%	+1.5	−3.2	−2.4	−4.0±4.7
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.3	−1.0	−2.4	+1.9±4.3
FH slice through the middle	7%	−6.7	−2.1	±0.0	−8.8±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−0.9	−1.1	−8.5±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +4.9±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (240 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tereza	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.0	−2.5	−0.8	+2.8±2.9
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	−0.9	−0.5	+6.3±3.7
BH down the line	18%	+2.2	−0.1	−0.4	+1.7±4.6
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−0.5	−0.7	−7.3±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.2	+0.4	−0.7	−4.5±1.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (148 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tereza	Value
FH crosscourt	44%	+0.5	+3.5	+0.1	+4.1±4.3
FH through the middle	36%	−3.2	−1.3	−1.6	−6.0±2.9
FH down the line	20%	−0.6	+0.1	+0.2	−0.2±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (50 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tereza	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.6	+0.4	+1.6	−0.7±2.7
BH crosscourt	37%	+1.5	+0.5	+1.0	+3.0±3.6
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	−1.6	−0.1	−2.3±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (78 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tereza Valentova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.4±5.1	+3.7	−0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.5±4.8	−1.5	+4.0
BH to the middle · return	+1.9±3.5	+2.5	−0.7
BH to their forehand · rally	+1.0±6.3	+3.7	−2.8
FH to the middle · serve +1	+0.6±3.2	+1.4	−0.8
FH to their backhand · return	+0.3±5.3	+0.3	±0.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−8.3±5.2	−0.9	−7.5
BH to the middle · return +1	−7.5±3.1	−3.6	−3.9
BH to their forehand · return	−6.3±5.3	−1.9	−4.4
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.6±4.5	±0.0	−4.6
BH to their backhand · return	−4.3±4.2	+0.3	−4.6

Solana Sierra

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+3.0±5.3	+4.6	−1.6
BH to their backhand · return	±0.0±4.2	−0.4	+0.5
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.4±4.5	−1.1	+0.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−0.6±4.8	−1.3	+0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−0.6±2.9	+0.3	−0.9
FH to the middle · return +1	−1.0±3.3	+1.1	−2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−11.8±5.9	−8.7	−3.1
FH to the middle · serve +1	−7.6±3.2	−4.6	−3.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	−7.0±4.4	−3.8	−3.2
BH to the middle · rally	−6.7±3.0	−3.1	−3.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	−5.8±3.0	−2.8	−3.0

Against Solana Sierra-like opponents

Tereza Valentova v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.0%	45.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Iva Jovic, Anastasia Potapova, Karolina Pliskova, Shuai Zhang, Elena Gabriela Ruse, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Veronika Kudermetova, Irina Camelia Begu, Anett Kontaveit. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.