Game plan

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah v Olga Danilovic

Every number combines what Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah does well with what Olga Danilovic allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah wins, best of 3 72%90%: 30%–95% · best of 5: 76%

Serve points won 60.4% / 56.0% Tiantsoa / Olga · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 72%serve 60.4% / 56.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah's record against Olga Danilovic's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Tiantsoa	Olga
Direction choice	−0.18 ±0.15 better than 21%	−0.03 ±0.07 better than 49%
Shot selection	+0.52 ±0.13 better than 95%	+0.44 ±0.13 better than 92%
Execution	−0.77 ±0.62 better than 25%	−1.00 ±0.59 better than 18%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Tiantsoa wins	v Olga	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	21%	72%	66%	71.5%±10.5	28% ▲
Body	31%	54%	65%	61.2%±10.7	16% ▼
T	48%	64%	72%	68.7%±9.1	56% ▲

Optimal v Olga Danilovic: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Tiantsoa wins	v Olga	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	59%	63%	72%	69.8%±7.9	59%
Body	27%	53%	51%	48.1%±12.1	12% ▼
T	14%	68%	71%	74.1%±10.9	29% ▲

Optimal v Olga Danilovic: +1.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +9.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Olga Danilovic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Olga wins	v Tiantsoa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	26%	64%	63%	61.5%±9.9	41% ▲
Body	29%	54%	55%	51.4%±10.9	14% ▼
T	45%	64%	66%	62.0%±10.8	45%

Optimal v Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Olga wins	v Tiantsoa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	61%	64%	59.8%±9.3	58%
Body	18%	57%	62%	62.4%±11.8	3% ▼
T	23%	73%	58%	67.5%±10.8	39% ▲

Optimal v Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah: +0.4±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.2	+0.8	−2.8	+2.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	26%	+5.3	+0.4	−1.6	+4.1±4.2
FH slice through the middle	13%	−6.7	+0.8	+1.3	−4.6±2.3
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+1.9	+0.5	+4.0±4.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	+0.8	+0.5	−5.3±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (92 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	−0.3	+0.2	+5.9±2.5
BH down the line	23%	+2.2	−1.9	+1.4	+1.7±4.1
BH crosscourt	16%	+7.7	−0.6	−3.8	+3.3±3.2
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	−0.8	−0.3	−7.3±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.1±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (111 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
FH through the middle	53%	−3.2	+0.3	−1.7	−4.5±2.7
FH crosscourt	48%	+0.5	−0.6	−4.9	−4.9±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (40 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Olga	Value
BH through the middle	62%	−2.6	−1.3	+0.3	−3.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	−0.5	−1.0	−0.1±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (45 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Olga Danilovic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	+0.6	−0.6	+4.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.3	+2.3	+0.4	+8.1±3.7
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−3.6	+0.8	−1.2±4.6
FH slice through the middle	8%	−6.7	−1.6	+0.2	−8.1±2.1
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	−2.0	±0.0	−8.6±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (304 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.0	−1.7	−0.8	+3.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	25%	+7.7	−1.6	−5.0	+1.2±3.5
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	−1.3	+2.4	+3.3±4.6
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−2.3	−0.2	−8.7±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	7%	−4.2	−1.4	±0.0	−5.6±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.9±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (485 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
FH crosscourt	42%	+0.5	−0.2	+0.6	+0.9±3.8
FH through the middle	38%	−3.2	−0.5	−0.7	−4.3±2.9
FH down the line	20%	−0.6	−2.5	+1.7	−1.4±4.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (74 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Tiantsoa	Value
BH through the middle	47%	−2.6	+0.7	−2.4	−4.3±2.6
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.5	+0.9	−0.7	+1.7±3.2
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	−6.6	−1.5	−8.6±5.2
FH inside-in	4%	+0.7	+0.9	+0.6	+2.3±3.6
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+0.7	−0.7	−2.7±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (294 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.6±4.0	+1.7	+1.9
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.6±4.0	+2.9	+0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±3.3	+1.3	+1.7
BH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.1±4.6	−0.5	+2.6
FH to the middle · rally	+1.3±2.4	±0.0	+1.3
FH to their backhand · return	+0.4±4.1	−0.7	+1.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	−3.4±2.5	+0.7	−4.1
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.2±4.6	−0.5	−0.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.2±4.6	+0.7	−0.9
BH to the middle · rally	+0.3±2.1	−1.0	+1.3
BH to the middle · return	+0.4±2.9	−0.9	+1.3

Olga Danilovic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±3.8	+1.7	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.3±3.8	+0.5	+1.8
BH to their forehand · return	+2.2±3.9	+1.4	+0.8
BH to their forehand · rally	−0.5±3.7	−0.4	±0.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.0±3.5	−1.1	+0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.0±3.2	+0.2	−1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · serve +1	−5.8±2.5	−3.1	−2.7
BH to the middle · rally	−4.6±2.1	−2.7	−1.9
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.2±3.3	−2.8	−1.4
FH to the middle · rally	−2.3±2.4	−1.7	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	−1.3±2.9	±0.0	−1.2

Against Olga Danilovic-like opponents

Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.1%	49.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Alexandra Eala, Diana Shnaider, Marta Kostyuk, Leylah Fernandez, Sara Bejlek, Kaja Juvan, Olivia Gadecki, Xiyu Wang, Bernarda Pera, Misaki Doi. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.