RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 8 charted matches · 1989–1995

Aaron Krickstein

Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.5% ±3.5 raw 57.7% · tour 63.4% · 815 points
Return points won 36.6% ±3.5 raw 35.2% · tour 36.6% · 756 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.07 ±0.18 better than 76% of ATP · raw +0.08
Shot selection −0.77 ±0.21 better than 5% of ATP · raw −0.76
Execution +1.53 ±0.89 better than 99% of ATP · raw +1.66
Points left on the table 2.54 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 57% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,699 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Aaron Krickstein goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 342 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 47.8%±6.6 47.6%
BH through the middle 19% 53.3%±9.0 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 11% 51.7%±10.7 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 7% 29.6%±11.3 35.1%
BH down the line 6% 40.7%±12.8 46.4%
FH inside-in 6% 56.2%±13.1 54.7%
FH inside-out 5% 58.9%±13.1 51.8%
FH through the middle 3% 45.3%±14.7 45.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 271 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 32% 56.6%±7.9 48.0%
BH slice crosscourt 16% 46.7%±10.3 42.1%
BH through the middle 15% 54.5%±10.4 43.8%
BH slice through the middle 11% 41.2%±11.3 35.1%
BH down the line 8% 44.9%±12.5 46.5%
FH inside-in 5% 55.5%±14.0 54.3%
FH inside-out 4% 54.8%±14.5 52.6%
FH through the middle 4% 50.7%±15.0 46.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 204 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 47% 50.3%±7.6 46.6%
FH through the middle 29% 44.7%±9.2 41.5%
FH down the line 24% 49.2%±9.9 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 195 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 48.2%±7.5 46.9%
FH down the line 26% 52.1%±9.8 44.8%
FH through the middle 22% 41.7%±10.2 41.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Aaron Krickstein's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 94 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 52% 69% / 73%
Body 11% 8% 64% / 63%
T 45% 40% 68% / 75%

399 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 48% ▲ 65% / 73%
Body 11% 12% 63% / 63%
T 51% 41% ▼ 63% / 72%

318 normal · 69 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 56.4%±5.5 n=191 42% ▼
Body10% 62.5%±9.3 n=44 0% ▼
T45% 62.6%±5.4 n=189 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.28).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 56.1%±6.0 n=156 53% ▲
Body11% 55.4%±9.6 n=42 0% ▼
T49% 54.6%±5.5 n=189 47% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.95).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.36 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.8±3.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (277 repeats, 518 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 38 32% −4.5±9.3
1stAd courtT 64 31% +3.3±7.9
1stAd courtWide 129 28% +1.2±5.9
1stDeuce courtBody 74 36% −1.1±7.7
1stDeuce courtT 105 26% +0.5±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 79 24% −3.2±6.7
2ndAd courtBody 45 48% −1.6±9.5
2ndAd courtT 10 54% +5.2±13.0
2ndAd courtWide 77 45% −3.0±7.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 52 44% −5.5±9.0
2ndDeuce courtT 56 51% +1.4±8.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 24 51% +2.7±11.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Aaron Krickstein's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 63% · +1.9±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 7.4% · won 58% · −2.4±9.3 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.3% · won 58% · −3.3±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 56% · −4.6±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 56% · −4.6±11.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 7.9% · won 43% · +5.4±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.3% · won 41% · +3.6±10.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 9.3% · won 41% · +3.6±10.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.8% · won 40% · +2.3±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 9.6% · won 34% · −3.1±9.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 2.3% · won 60% · +11.5±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 55% · +6.4±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 56% · +7.6±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 4.1% · won 54% · +5.3±9.9 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.7% · won 54% · +5.6±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Aaron Krickstein wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 55% · +8.1±12.5 vs own baseline · +19.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Muster (5/11), Jimmy Connors (7/7)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 53% · +5.4±11.7 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jimmy Connors (13/23)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 53% · +5.6±12.0 vs own baseline · +10.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (2/6), Stefan Edberg (9/13)
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 53% · +5.6±12.0 vs own baseline · +13.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Muster (6/10), Jimmy Connors (7/10)
  5. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 51% · +4.2±10.8 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jimmy Connors (16/27)
  6. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.1% · won 52% · +4.3±11.4 vs own baseline · +12.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+2.9184
BH to their backhand · return+2.9139
BH to their forehand · rally+2.1192
FH to the middle · rally+1.7185
BH to their backhand · rally+1.6251

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return−3.8131
BH slice to their backhand · rally−3.0138
BH to their forehand · rally−2.5206
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.2123
FH to their backhand · rally−0.6425

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Miomir Kecmanovic, Andy Murray, Joao Fonseca, Bernard Tomic, Albert Ramos

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length5.0
T serves · ad49%
Run-around forehands23%
Backhand slice27%
Wide serves · deuce45%
T serves · deuce45%
Through the middle24%
Serve & volley1%
BH down the line18%
Forehand share49%
Points at net7%
Drop shots / shot0.4%
1st serve in57%
Chipped returns3%
Wide serves · ad40%
FH down the line24%
Unforced errors / shot6.1%
Point-ending shots14.2%
Deep returns11%

Plays most like

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998 plan v
  2. Guillermo Canas 2001–2007 plan v
  3. Andy Murray 2005–2024 plan v
  4. Gilles Simon 2008–2022 plan v
  5. John Millman 2014–2024 plan v
  6. Bjorn Borg 1974–1991 plan v
  7. Andy Roddick 2001–2012 plan v
  8. Andreas Seppi 2008–2021 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Andy Murray 2005–2024
  2. Gilles Simon 2008–2022
  3. John Millman 2014–2024

Charted matches