RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 28 charted matches · 2008–2021

Andreas Seppi

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.8% ±2.7 raw 61.2% · tour 63.4% · 2,397 points
Return points won 38.3% ±2.8 raw 34.1% · tour 36.6% · 2,399 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.08 ±0.05 better than 36% of ATP · raw −0.08
Shot selection −0.27 ±0.12 better than 26% of ATP · raw −0.28
Execution −0.27 ±0.42 better than 54% of ATP · raw −0.35
Tactical adaptability +0.02 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 28 matches
Adaptation speed +0.06 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.46 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 67% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 12,308 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Andreas Seppi goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 855 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 50.6%±4.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 31% 44.7%±4.8 43.7%
BH down the line 9% 41.3%±8.3 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 44.9%±9.2 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 6% 45.1%±9.7 35.1%
FH inside-out 5% 50.6%±10.4 51.8%
BH slice down the line 2% 43.2%±13.2 37.1%
FH inside-in 2% 53.9%±13.5 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 658 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 55.2%±5.9 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 51.2%±6.6 51.5%
FH through the middle 19% 43.8%±6.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 17% 40.1%±7.0 46.8%
BH crosscourt 11% 43.9%±8.5 49.1%
BH down the line 2% 46.3%±13.7 48.3%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 589 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 51.4%±5.0 48.0%
BH through the middle 22% 42.5%±6.6 43.8%
BH down the line 11% 50.9%±8.9 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 28.4%±8.3 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 9% 35.2%±9.1 35.1%
FH inside-out 3% 55.8%±13.8 52.6%
BH slice down the line 2% 36.8%±13.8 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 525 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 49.4%±4.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 26% 32.4%±6.2 41.5%
FH down the line 19% 43.8%±7.4 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 3% 22.6%±11.6 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 36.1%±14.2 30.9%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Andreas Seppi's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 220 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 52% 68% / 73%
Body 4% 2% 62% / 63%
T 49% 46% 72% / 75%

1,182 normal · 50 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 52% 72% / 73%
Body 6% 6% 55% / 63%
T 46% 42% 67% / 72%

979 normal · 170 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 62.4%±3.2 n=588 61% ▲
Body4% 64.1%±9.1 n=46 0% ▼
T49% 61.4%±3.2 n=598 39% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.77).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide49% 61.0%±3.3 n=563 42% ▼
Body6% 52.9%±8.4 n=65 0% ▼
T45% 60.5%±3.4 n=521 58% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.18).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.20 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.6±4.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (895 repeats, 1,430 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 63 35% −2.5±8.1
1stAd courtT 297 25% −3.4±3.9
1stAd courtWide 343 21% −5.7±3.5
1stDeuce courtBody 78 36% −0.6±7.6
1stDeuce courtT 335 22% −2.7±3.6
1stDeuce courtWide 364 28% +0.8±3.7
2ndAd courtBody 135 42% −7.7±6.3
2ndAd courtT 78 53% +3.3±7.9
2ndAd courtWide 220 45% −3.4±5.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 192 51% +1.8±5.5
2ndDeuce courtT 200 55% +5.0±5.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 81 53% +4.6±7.8

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Andreas Seppi's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 66% · +1.6±8.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 64% · −0.6±8.9 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 59% · −5.5±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 57% · −7.1±9.4 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.1% · won 58% · −6.5±8.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.2% · won 51% · +14.5±9.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 51% · +14.7±9.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.7% · won 47% · +10.5±7.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.6% · won 45% · +8.5±7.9 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 45% · +7.9±10.1 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 54% · +9.0±7.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 53% · +7.8±6.7 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 52% · +6.6±7.9 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 4.0% · won 50% · +5.0±6.6 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 51% · +6.1±7.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Andreas Seppi wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 57% · +9.1±7.4 vs own baseline · +10.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Zhizhen Zhang (3/7), Nick Kyrgios (7/15)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 57% · +9.5±8.5 vs own baseline · +11.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nick Kyrgios (2/6), Stefanos Tsitsipas (4/6)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 55% · +7.8±9.5 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/6), Alex De Minaur (5/8)
  4. FH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 55% · +7.9±9.6 vs own baseline · +13.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nick Kyrgios (11/18)
  5. BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 58% · +10.6±11.7 vs own baseline · +25.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nick Kyrgios (4/8)
  6. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 54% · +7.0±10.2 vs own baseline · +7.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · return +1+1.6159
BH to their backhand · serve +1+1.6220
Body 2nd serve · ad court+1.3169
BH to their backhand · return+1.2263
FH to the middle · return+1.0392

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · return−2.8286
BH to their backhand · serve +1−2.3212
FH to their forehand · serve +1−1.7331
FH to the middle · return−1.6436
FH to their forehand · return−1.2186

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Ugo Humbert, Miomir Kecmanovic, Casper Ruud, Zhizhen Zhang, Bernard Tomic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle30%
T serves · ad45%
Avg rally length4.4
Wide serves · deuce48%
T serves · deuce49%
Unforced errors / shot10.1%
FH down the line30%
Backhand slice21%
Chipped returns15%
Run-around forehands18%
Forehand share53%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Wide serves · ad49%
Serve & volley1%
Deep returns22%
1st serve in59%
Point-ending shots20.4%
Points at net6%
BH down the line14%

Plays most like

  1. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  2. Taylor Fritz 2016–2026 plan v
  3. Marcos Giron 2018–2026 plan v
  4. Andy Murray 2005–2024 plan v
  5. Alexandre Muller 2023–2025 plan v
  6. Rinky Hijikata 2023–2026 plan v
  7. Karim Mohamed Maamoun 2017–2020 plan v
  8. Marcos Baghdatis 2004–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  2. Aaron Krickstein 1989–1995
  3. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002

Charted matches