RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2023–2025

Dino Prizmic

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±3.9 raw 59.7% · tour 63.4% · 474 points
Return points won 37.5% ±4.0 raw 35.4% · tour 36.6% · 489 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.02 ±0.07 better than 62% of ATP · raw +0.02
Shot selection −0.02 ±0.33 better than 50% of ATP · raw −0.03
Execution −0.12 ±0.54 better than 62% of ATP · raw −0.22
Points left on the table 2.20 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 92% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,911 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Dino Prizmic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 184 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 43.7%±8.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 32% 42.0%±9.2 43.7%
BH down the line 9% 52.1%±13.5 46.4%
FH inside-out 7% 43.5%±14.2 51.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 162 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 48.5%±8.6 48.0%
BH through the middle 28% 49.6%±10.1 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 39.0%±13.2 42.1%
BH down the line 9% 45.0%±14.0 46.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 152 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 49.8%±8.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 32% 38.7%±9.7 41.5%
FH down the line 17% 47.7%±12.1 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 147 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 42.8%±9.2 46.9%
FH down the line 31% 53.0%±10.1 44.8%
FH through the middle 18% 47.4%±12.0 41.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +23 How much less varied Dino Prizmic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 48 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 67% ▲ 66% / 73%
Body 12% 0% ▼ 64% / 63%
T 36% 33% 75% / 75%

233 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 57% 70% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 17% 9% 61% / 63%
T 26% 21% 62% / 72%

189 normal · 33 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 59.4%±6.3 n=132 51% ▼
Body11% 64.2%±10.4 n=28 0% ▼
T35% 62.5%±7.3 n=88 49% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.67).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide59% 58.9%±6.4 n=130 58%
Body16% 58.3%±10.1 n=35 3% ▼
T26% 56.5%±8.7 n=57 39% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.90).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.47 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.2±7.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (192 repeats, 268 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 21 34% −3.5±10.9
1stAd courtT 69 28% −0.3±7.4
1stAd courtWide 54 25% −2.0±7.8
1stDeuce courtBody 15 42% +5.5±12.1
1stDeuce courtT 67 20% −4.9±6.7
1stDeuce courtWide 71 29% +1.7±7.4
2ndAd courtBody 36 51% +1.9±10.1
2ndAd courtT 25 49% −0.6±11.1
2ndAd courtWide 26 46% −2.8±10.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 45 49% −0.1±9.5
2ndDeuce courtT 35 54% +4.0±10.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 25 44% −3.7±11.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Dino Prizmic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 13.1% · won 59% · −4.7±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 14.6% · won 29% · −9.2±11.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 6.2% · won 49% · +4.2±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 3.8% · won 50% · +5.0±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.4% · won 49% · +3.5±9.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 49% · +4.1±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 49% · +4.0±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Dino Prizmic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 52% · +5.5±10.5 vs own baseline · +7.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Otto Virtanen (3/9), Novak Djokovic (7/13)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.7% · won 48% · +2.1±11.1 vs own baseline · +4.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nishesh Basavareddy (2/6), David Goffin (3/6)
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 49% · +2.7±13.0 vs own baseline · +9.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (4/8)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 1.1% · won 47% · +0.5±12.4 vs own baseline · +3.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by David Goffin (4/10)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.0% · won 47% · +0.3±12.7 vs own baseline · −6.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Musetti (3/8)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 46% · −0.6±12.2 vs own baseline · +0.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally+1.8152
BH to their backhand · rally+1.1205
FH to the middle · rally+0.8120
FH to their forehand · rally−0.2244
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.7132

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · return−2.2120
BH to their backhand · rally−0.6229
FH to their backhand · rally+0.1160
FH to their forehand · rally+1.0248
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.5135

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roman Safiullin, Tomas Machac, Miomir Kecmanovic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Tommy Paul

Charted matches