RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2000–2007

Juan Ignacio Chela

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.5% ±4.0 raw 57.8% · tour 63.4% · 313 points
Return points won 36.0% ±4.1 raw 31.5% · tour 36.6% · 276 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Juan Ignacio Chela goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 79 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 45.0%±11.1 46.6%
FH down the line 30% 52.2%±12.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 27% 34.9%±12.2 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 77 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 29% 58.4%±12.5 52.7%
FH down the line 25% 57.2%±13.0 51.5%
FH through the middle 17% 43.6%±14.2 47.0%
BH crosscourt 16% 43.2%±14.4 49.1%
BH through the middle 14% 33.4%±13.9 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 47.3%±11.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 40% 32.8%±11.1 43.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 53 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 40% 57.8%±12.7 53.4%
FH crosscourt 30% 56.1%±13.6 56.0%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 50% ▲ 66% / 73%
Body 14% 25% ▲ 63% / 63%
T 48% 25% ▼ 67% / 75%

145 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 57% 67% / 73%
Body 18% 7% ▼ 62% / 63%
T 31% 36% 77% / 72%

120 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide39% 58.0%±8.6 n=59
Body15% 50.2%±11.3 n=23
T46% 51.6%±8.2 n=71

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide53% 56.9%±7.8 n=78
Body16% 58.7%±11.1 n=23
T32% 67.8%±8.8 n=47

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +6.5±6.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (107 repeats, 184 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 9 36% −0.8±12.7
1stAd courtT 16 29% +1.1±11.0
1stAd courtWide 46 34% +7.2±9.0
1stDeuce courtBody 8 37% +0.2±12.9
1stDeuce courtT 41 27% +2.4±8.7
1stDeuce courtWide 39 26% −0.9±8.7
2ndAd courtBody 7 45% −3.9±13.5
2ndAd courtT 7 43% −6.6±13.4
2ndAd courtWide 33 44% −4.7±10.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 16 38% −10.5±11.8
2ndDeuce courtT 24 46% −3.6±11.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 14 49% +0.6±12.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Juan Ignacio Chela's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 15.7% · won 41% · −0.7±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Juan Ignacio Chela wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 49% · +3.1±12.4 vs own baseline · +5.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (6/12), Carlos Moya (4/7)

Charted matches