RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 7 charted matches · 2022–2026

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.1% ±3.5 raw 57.7% · tour 63.4% · 553 points
Return points won 35.6% ±3.6 raw 34.3% · tour 36.6% · 501 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.18 ±0.12 better than 17% of ATP · raw −0.18
Shot selection −0.07 ±0.26 better than 43% of ATP · raw −0.06
Execution −1.27 ±0.89 better than 17% of ATP · raw −1.04
Points left on the table 2.90 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 24% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,786 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Juan Manuel Cerundolo goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 202 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 24% 33.1%±9.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 19% 34.0%±10.2 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 37.5%±10.8 46.4%
FH inside-in 12% 47.6%±12.4 54.7%
FH inside-out 11% 50.9%±12.7 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 6% 33.4%±13.5 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 133 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 63% 52.2%±8.1 46.6%
FH down the line 23% 47.9%±11.6 44.7%
FH through the middle 14% 46.9%±13.1 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 128 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 45% 51.4%±9.4 52.7%
FH down the line 29% 58.4%±10.7 51.5%
FH through the middle 14% 48.4%±13.3 47.0%
BH through the middle 8% 44.5%±14.9 46.8%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 90 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 32% 42.4%±11.6 43.8%
BH crosscourt 24% 39.5%±12.4 48.0%
BH down the line 16% 45.0%±14.0 46.5%
FH inside-in 11% 59.5%±14.7 54.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −3 How much less varied Juan Manuel Cerundolo's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 24% 25% 66% / 73%
Body 30% 17% ▼ 62% / 63%
T 47% 58% ▲ 65% / 75%

273 normal · 12 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 58% 50% ▼ 65% / 73%
Body 14% 17% 62% / 63%
T 28% 33% 66% / 72%

217 normal · 48 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide24% 57.7%±8.2 n=68 37% ▲
Body29% 51.9%±7.7 n=83 16% ▼
T47% 56.5%±6.4 n=134 47%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.55).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide57% 60.9%±6.0 n=150 56%
Body15% 57.0%±9.8 n=39 2% ▼
T29% 60.4%±7.8 n=76 42% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.75).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.69 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.8±6.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (232 repeats, 304 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 30 38% +1.5±10.3
1stAd courtT 86 26% −1.8±6.7
1stAd courtWide 29 19% −8.3±8.4
1stDeuce courtBody 17 36% −0.5±11.5
1stDeuce courtT 48 21% −3.9±7.6
1stDeuce courtWide 98 28% +1.1±6.5
2ndAd courtBody 38 51% +1.8±10.0
2ndAd courtT 44 54% +4.5±9.5
2ndAd courtWide 14 47% −1.8±12.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 36 45% −4.0±10.1
2ndDeuce courtT 28 50% +0.1±10.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 33 42% −6.1±10.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Juan Manuel Cerundolo's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 7.7% · won 68% · +1.3±10.3 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 11.2% · won 66% · −0.3±9.3 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 6.2% · won 61% · −5.8±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 8.3% · won 55% · −11.4±10.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 20.3% · won 53% · +5.5±8.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 12.7% · won 52% · +4.7±10.5 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 8.4% · won 50% · +3.1±11.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.7% · won 56% · +8.6±11.8 vs own baseline · +11.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Vit Kopriva (4/6), Kevin Anderson (5/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 55% · +7.7±12.0 vs own baseline · +10.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jesper De Jong (11/13)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 52% · +4.7±10.0 vs own baseline · +6.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alexander Bublik (2/7), Francisco Cerundolo (4/7)
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.5% · won 51% · +3.5±12.3 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Vit Kopriva (3/7)
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 40% · −6.8±12.2 vs own baseline · −14.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Francisco Cerundolo (1/6), Kevin Anderson (3/7)
  6. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 39% · −8.7±12.6 vs own baseline · −22.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · return+1.6128
FH to their backhand · serve +1+0.6127
FH to their backhand · rally+0.5281
FH to their forehand · rally+0.5150
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.7150

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−2.2171
FH to their backhand · rally−1.7237
FH to their backhand · serve +1−0.1123
BH to their forehand · rally±0.0135
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.1144

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Charted matches