RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 26 charted matches · 2011–2022

Kevin Anderson

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 68.1% ±2.5 raw 67.2% · tour 63.4% · 2,408 points
Return points won 35.5% ±2.7 raw 30.2% · tour 36.6% · 2,295 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.05 ±0.10 better than 71% of ATP · raw +0.05
Shot selection +0.16 ±0.17 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.15
Execution −0.37 ±0.61 better than 51% of ATP · raw −0.52
Tactical adaptability +0.09 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 25 matches
Adaptation speed +0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.35 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 78% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 10,590 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Kevin Anderson goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 499 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 38.8%±5.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 26% 35.0%±6.4 43.7%
BH down the line 9% 39.5%±10.1 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 36.1%±10.8 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 32.0%±11.2 35.1%
FH inside-out 4% 48.5%±12.7 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 427 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 55.0%±7.2 52.7%
FH down the line 25% 48.2%±7.4 51.5%
FH through the middle 15% 39.5%±8.9 47.0%
BH crosscourt 13% 38.4%±9.2 49.1%
BH through the middle 12% 35.7%±9.4 46.8%
BH down the line 6% 37.0%±11.8 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 4% 66.9%±12.4 70.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 375 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 55% 37.5%±5.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 24% 33.9%±7.5 41.5%
FH down the line 16% 32.0%±8.7 44.7%
FH slice crosscourt 3% 29.6%±13.5 30.9%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 281 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 35% 43.1%±7.5 46.9%
BH through the middle 30% 30.4%±7.4 43.0%
BH down the line 13% 43.6%±10.8 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 37.9%±11.5 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 9% 31.5%±11.3 32.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +9 How much less varied Kevin Anderson's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 166 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 41% 73% / 73%
Body 5% 4% 69% / 63%
T 53% 56% 81% / 75%

1,237 normal · 27 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 53% ▲ 80% / 73%
Body 7% 3% 69% / 63%
T 54% 45% ▼ 76% / 72%

1,004 normal · 139 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 66.5%±3.3 n=525 34% ▼
Body5% 69.9%±7.6 n=69 0% ▼
T53% 68.2%±2.9 n=670 66% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.66).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 63.9%±3.6 n=463 34% ▼
Body6% 67.5%±7.6 n=74 0% ▼
T53% 68.5%±3.0 n=606 66% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.23).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.50 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.6±2.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,061 repeats, 1,296 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 82 29% −8.3±7.0
1stAd courtT 313 24% −3.7±3.8
1stAd courtWide 318 21% −6.5±3.6
1stDeuce courtBody 100 33% −3.6±6.8
1stDeuce courtT 370 20% −4.7±3.3
1stDeuce courtWide 327 24% −2.8±3.7
2ndAd courtBody 130 43% −6.4±6.4
2ndAd courtT 82 43% −6.6±7.7
2ndAd courtWide 157 52% +3.8±6.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 198 44% −5.3±5.4
2ndDeuce courtT 130 46% −3.5±6.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 85 41% −6.8±7.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Kevin Anderson's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 69% · −2.6±8.8 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 69% · −2.9±8.3 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 61% · −10.5±8.7 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 61% · −10.9±8.1 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 59% · −13.0±8.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.6% · won 45% · +10.2±8.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.8% · won 46% · +10.8±9.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 46% · +11.3±9.9 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 3.2% · won 45% · +9.9±9.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.8% · won 43% · +8.1±9.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 48% · +11.0±10.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 6.5% · won 41% · +4.6±7.0 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.9% · won 44% · +7.3±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 41% · +4.2±8.0 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.4% · won 40% · +2.8±7.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Kevin Anderson wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 56% · +13.7±11.4 vs own baseline · +16.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/6)
  2. T serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 55% · +12.5±12.5 vs own baseline · +17.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/6)
  3. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 54% · +11.2±12.4 vs own baseline · +14.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 50% · +7.8±12.3 vs own baseline · +13.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by John Isner (4/7)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 48% · +5.8±11.7 vs own baseline · +2.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gilles Simon (3/8)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 46% · +4.0±11.3 vs own baseline · −3.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court+3.9670
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+2.4525
T 1st serve · ad court+2.1606
Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.5463
FH to their forehand · return+1.1182

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · rally−2.8219
T 2nd serve · deuce court−2.6130
BH to the middle · rally−2.1300
BH slice to the middle · rally−1.8152
BH slice to the middle · return−1.7202

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juncheng Shang, Pedro Martinez, Learner Tien, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nishesh Basavareddy

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · ad53%
T serves · deuce53%
1st serve in66%
Unforced errors / shot12.0%
Forehand share57%
Point-ending shots27.1%
Deep returns31%
Run-around forehands21%
FH down the line32%
Points at net12%
Backhand slice19%
BH down the line19%
Chipped returns13%
Serve & volley4%
Wide serves · deuce42%
Through the middle23%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
Avg rally length3.5
Wide serves · ad41%

Plays most like

  1. Zhizhen Zhang 2019–2026 plan v
  2. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  3. Nick Kyrgios 2013–2025 plan v
  4. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  5. Felix Auger Aliassime 2017–2026 plan v
  6. Tomas Berdych 2005–2019 plan v
  7. Sam Querrey 2010–2022 plan v
  8. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jim Courier 1989–1999
  2. Thomas Enqvist 1993–2001
  3. Marc Rosset 1991–2000

Charted matches