RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2015–2019

Margarita Gasparyan

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.3% ±3.9 raw 56.1% · tour 56.3% · 419 points
Return points won 45.3% ±3.9 raw 43.9% · tour 43.7% · 415 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.25 ±0.15 better than 91% of WTA · raw +0.26
Shot selection −0.26 ±0.23 better than 22% of WTA · raw −0.25
Execution +0.58 ±1.68 better than 81% of WTA · raw +0.71

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,281 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Margarita Gasparyan goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 156 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 30% 50.0%±10.0 47.6%
BH down the line 24% 53.2%±10.9 46.8%
BH through the middle 19% 46.2%±11.7 43.3%
BH slice crosscourt 15% 37.4%±12.1 40.4%
BH slice through the middle 9% 43.8%±14.0 34.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 125 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 51.1%±9.5 46.7%
FH down the line 37% 43.9%±10.0 44.9%
FH through the middle 19% 46.1%±12.4 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 78 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 31% 49.0%±12.4 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 55.0%±13.1 52.2%
BH down the line 17% 54.6%±14.3 50.0%
BH through the middle 14% 39.5%±14.4 46.2%
BH crosscourt 14% 36.1%±14.2 50.9%

Return +1: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 71 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 50.0%±11.1 47.6%
FH down the line 35% 55.2%±12.2 44.1%
FH through the middle 15% 39.5%±14.4 41.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Margarita Gasparyan's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 42 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 43% 68% / 66%
Body 24% 21% 61% / 57%
T 36% 36% 69% / 68%

204 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 43% 62% / 66%
Body 14% 11% 54% / 56%
T 40% 46% 67% / 64%

173 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 57.4%±7.5 n=88 53% ▲
Body24% 56.5%±9.0 n=52 9% ▼
T36% 58.0%±7.8 n=78 38% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.97).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 52.7%±7.5 n=90 44%
Body14% 48.9%±10.8 n=28 0% ▼
T41% 59.9%±7.6 n=83 56% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.14).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.63 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.9±7.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (123 repeats, 284 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 31 43% −1.0±10.4
1stAd courtT 53 39% +3.8±8.8
1stAd courtWide 47 42% +7.5±9.3
1stDeuce courtBody 29 37% −5.7±10.3
1stDeuce courtT 51 37% +4.5±8.8
1stDeuce courtWide 62 33% −1.2±8.1
2ndAd courtBody 34 59% +3.6±10.1
2ndAd courtT 6 54% −0.8±13.7
2ndAd courtWide 27 47% −6.1±10.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 30 57% +2.8±10.5
2ndDeuce courtT 28 55% −1.2±10.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 17 51% −2.4±12.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Margarita Gasparyan's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 11.9% · won 54% · −11.1±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 7.7% · won 56% · +7.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 7.7% · won 54% · +5.2±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 16.1% · won 52% · +3.1±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 8.8% · won 53% · +4.0±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH down the line used 7.7% · won 53% · +3.2±11.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Margarita Gasparyan wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 54% · +5.9±11.6 vs own baseline · +11.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Patricia Maria Tig (5/11), Priscilla Hon (5/6)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 54% · +6.2±12.1 vs own baseline · +13.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Patricia Maria Tig (4/7), Elina Svitolina (6/9)
  3. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 53% · +4.3±12.7 vs own baseline · +10.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Patricia Maria Tig (3/6), Elina Svitolina (6/7)
  4. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.4% · won 46% · −1.8±12.9 vs own baseline · −3.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elina Svitolina (5/8)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.8% · won 44% · −4.0±9.8 vs own baseline · −5.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Patricia Maria Tig (5/15), Elina Svitolina (6/12)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+0.7144
FH to their backhand · rally+0.2165

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−3.0144
FH to their forehand · rally−0.7184

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches