RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 14 charted matches · 2016–2023

Mikael Ymer

Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.0% ±2.9 raw 60.8% · tour 63.4% · 1,316 points
Return points won 40.8% ±3.1 raw 38.9% · tour 36.6% · 1,237 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.40 ±0.13 better than 2% of ATP · raw −0.39
Shot selection −0.49 ±0.18 better than 11% of ATP · raw −0.48
Execution +0.37 ±0.81 better than 82% of ATP · raw +0.41
Tactical adaptability +0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 12 matches
Adaptation speed +0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.60 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 49% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 6,795 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mikael Ymer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 404 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 23% 47.7%±7.8 47.0%
BH through the middle 21% 45.5%±8.0 46.8%
BH crosscourt 19% 58.2%±8.3 49.1%
FH crosscourt 16% 42.3%±8.9 52.7%
FH down the line 13% 55.8%±9.5 51.5%
BH down the line 5% 56.6%±12.9 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 397 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 47.4%±5.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 36% 46.4%±6.5 43.7%
BH down the line 9% 47.9%±10.9 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 4% 40.6%±13.3 35.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 392 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 57% 47.8%±5.3 48.0%
BH through the middle 30% 49.8%±7.0 43.8%
BH down the line 7% 51.6%±11.7 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 3% 39.5%±14.0 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 48.1%±15.0 42.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 316 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 23% 54.3%±8.5 52.7%
BH crosscourt 22% 57.2%±8.6 49.6%
BH through the middle 19% 58.5%±9.0 46.8%
FH through the middle 17% 50.6%±9.6 47.4%
FH down the line 13% 52.3%±10.6 52.0%
BH down the line 4% 49.7%±14.1 49.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Mikael Ymer's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 114 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 48% 67% / 73%
Body 26% 19% 65% / 63%
T 33% 33% 66% / 75%

658 normal · 21 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 37% 69% / 73%
Body 30% 35% 58% / 63%
T 30% 28% 68% / 72%

542 normal · 93 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 60.8%±4.5 n=282 55% ▲
Body26% 62.0%±5.6 n=175 13% ▼
T33% 59.9%±5.1 n=222 32%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.87).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 63.1%±4.7 n=256 53% ▲
Body30% 55.6%±5.5 n=193 17% ▼
T29% 63.6%±5.4 n=186 30%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.09).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.5±3.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (478 repeats, 808 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 36 40% +2.5±9.9
1stAd courtT 180 34% +6.0±5.4
1stAd courtWide 138 27% +0.2±5.7
1stDeuce courtBody 52 37% −0.1±8.8
1stDeuce courtT 173 34% +9.2±5.5
1stDeuce courtWide 196 26% −1.0±4.8
2ndAd courtBody 113 52% +2.2±6.9
2ndAd courtT 54 51% +1.7±9.0
2ndAd courtWide 66 47% −1.0±8.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 110 55% +5.8±6.9
2ndDeuce courtT 71 49% −0.3±8.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 48 42% −6.5±9.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mikael Ymer's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 62% · −1.1±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.7% · won 61% · −2.3±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 61% · −2.6±10.7 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 60% · −3.0±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 2.3% · won 59% · −4.1±11.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 4.5% · won 54% · +9.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.8% · won 52% · +7.9±10.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH direction unknown used 3.9% · won 52% · +8.1±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.9% · won 50% · +6.3±11.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.0% · won 48% · +4.3±11.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH direction unknown → FH direction unknown used 3.1% · won 64% · +11.7±8.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH direction unknown → BH direction unknown used 2.4% · won 65% · +12.6±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. BH direction unknown → BH direction unknown used 2.6% · won 64% · +11.9±9.0 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 60% · +8.1±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. FH direction unknown → FH direction unknown used 2.2% · won 62% · +9.7±9.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mikael Ymer wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 2.1% · won 56% · +6.3±7.9 vs own baseline · +12.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Leonardo Mayer (3/9), Gael Monfils (3/7)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 57% · +7.5±10.2 vs own baseline · +12.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (3/6), Botic Van De Zandschulp (7/11)
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 57% · +7.7±11.0 vs own baseline · +15.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (13/19)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH through the middle used 1.0% · won 56% · +6.6±10.1 vs own baseline · +11.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (2/7), Hubert Hurkacz (6/9)
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 55% · +5.8±9.4 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gael Monfils (4/8), Hubert Hurkacz (7/13)
  6. Body serve → FH down the line return, mid → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 57% · +7.3±12.4 vs own baseline · +18.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · serve +1+2.4133
BH to their backhand · serve +1+2.2234
BH to their backhand · rally+1.8660
FH to the middle · rally+1.3425
BH to the middle · return+1.3244

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−2.2223
BH to the middle · return +1−1.5133
BH to the middle · rally−1.4352
FH to the middle · return−1.1301
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6259

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle34%
Avg rally length5.1
1st serve in68%
Chipped returns24%
Deep returns30%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
Wide serves · deuce42%
Serve & volley1%
Backhand slice9%
Points at net6%
BH down the line14%
FH down the line26%
Forehand share47%
Unforced errors / shot7.2%
Run-around forehands5%
T serves · ad29%
Wide serves · ad40%
Point-ending shots16.1%
T serves · deuce33%

Plays most like

  1. Jenson Brooksby 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Hyeon Chung 2015–2019 plan v
  3. Pablo Carreno Busta 2015–2026 plan v
  4. Miomir Kecmanovic 2019–2026 plan v
  5. Diego Schwartzman 2015–2025 plan v
  6. Dominik Koepfer 2018–2025 plan v
  7. Alex De Minaur 2016–2026 plan v
  8. John Millman 2014–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Guillermo Coria 2002–2005
  2. Andrei Chesnokov 1989–1995
  3. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006

Charted matches