RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2002–2006

Paradorn Srichaphan

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 66.2% ±3.4 raw 65.4% · tour 63.4% · 563 points
Return points won 39.1% ±3.6 raw 33.6% · tour 36.6% · 566 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.22 ±0.15 better than 96% of ATP · raw +0.21
Shot selection −0.64 ±0.35 better than 7% of ATP · raw −0.66
Execution +0.61 ±0.94 better than 86% of ATP · raw +0.31

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,672 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Paradorn Srichaphan goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 171 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 60.4%±9.2 47.6%
BH down the line 19% 57.1%±11.2 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 19% 42.5%±11.2 42.5%
BH through the middle 16% 44.1%±11.9 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 9% 37.2%±13.4 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 126 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 53% 45.2%±8.8 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 45.0%±11.5 44.7%
FH through the middle 17% 41.2%±12.5 41.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 85 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 27% 35.3%±12.0 40.9%
BH through the middle 24% 46.5%±13.0 43.0%
BH crosscourt 24% 51.0%±13.0 46.9%
BH slice through the middle 18% 41.5%±13.7 32.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 77 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 46.4%±13.0 52.7%
FH down the line 25% 46.9%±13.1 51.5%
BH through the middle 19% 43.9%±13.8 46.8%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 25% ▼ 70% / 73%
Body 4% 0% 68% / 63%
T 53% 75% ▲ 83% / 75%

275 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 60% 46% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 8% 7% 63% / 63%
T 32% 46% ▲ 65% / 72%

225 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 63.2%±6.5 n=118 33% ▼
Body4% 67.0%±11.9 n=12 0% ▼
T54% 70.4%±5.6 n=153 67% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.12).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide59% 68.4%±5.7 n=149 72% ▲
Body8% 61.8%±11.4 n=19 0% ▼
T34% 57.1%±7.6 n=85 28% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.06).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.5±4.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (222 repeats, 300 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 11 39% +2.3±12.5
1stAd courtT 70 24% −3.6±7.1
1stAd courtWide 92 30% +3.2±6.9
1stDeuce courtBody 10 38% +0.8±12.6
1stDeuce courtT 90 30% +4.5±6.9
1stDeuce courtWide 65 19% −8.1±6.6
2ndAd courtBody 19 53% +3.3±11.7
2ndAd courtT 9 46% −3.7±13.1
2ndAd courtWide 57 48% −0.7±8.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 43 46% −2.8±9.6
2ndDeuce courtT 56 52% +2.5±8.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 18 43% −5.5±11.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Paradorn Srichaphan's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 9.0% · won 55% · +5.0±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 9.9% · won 51% · +1.0±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 11.2% · won 48% · −1.7±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Paradorn Srichaphan wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 54% · +5.6±12.9 vs own baseline · +15.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (5/8)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 54% · +5.6±12.9 vs own baseline · +14.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lleyton Hewitt (4/7), Mark Philippoussis (4/6)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.7% · won 46% · −2.4±12.1 vs own baseline · −3.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/7)
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 45% · −2.8±12.7 vs own baseline · −3.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.4% · won 45% · −2.8±12.7 vs own baseline · −3.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.2149
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.6153
FH to their forehand · rally−0.9159

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−0.2150
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.2145
FH to their forehand · rally+0.2160
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.5163

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Charted matches