RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 16 charted matches · 2004–2014

Radek Stepanek

Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.5% ±2.8 raw 60.0% · tour 63.4% · 1,437 points
Return points won 36.6% ±2.9 raw 32.6% · tour 36.6% · 1,404 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.07 ±0.11 better than 74% of ATP · raw +0.06
Shot selection +0.44 ±0.15 better than 88% of ATP · raw +0.42
Execution −0.90 ±0.61 better than 27% of ATP · raw −1.11
Tactical adaptability +0.03 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 15 matches
Adaptation speed +0.05 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 3.18 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 13% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 6,833 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Radek Stepanek goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 271 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 30% 39.5%±8.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 49.1%±9.1 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 20% 34.9%±9.2 42.5%
BH down the line 15% 47.2%±10.4 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 9% 22.8%±10.4 35.1%
BH slice down the line 4% 33.6%±14.0 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 269 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 35% 38.3%±7.5 46.6%
FH down the line 28% 36.8%±8.1 44.7%
FH through the middle 25% 41.0%±8.7 41.5%
FH down the line + approach 5% 67.2%±13.2 69.3%
FH slice through the middle 4% 29.7%±13.7 24.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 218 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 28% 41.7%±9.1 46.9%
BH slice crosscourt 21% 32.1%±9.5 40.9%
BH through the middle 19% 34.9%±10.0 43.0%
BH down the line 13% 34.4%±11.2 44.2%
BH slice through the middle 12% 28.7%±10.9 32.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 193 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 20% 39.5%±10.5 51.5%
BH crosscourt 16% 43.7%±11.5 49.1%
BH through the middle 14% 41.2%±11.8 46.8%
FH crosscourt 11% 56.1%±12.6 52.7%
FH through the middle 10% 48.5%±13.0 47.0%
BH down the line 10% 37.6%±12.8 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 7% 56.2%±14.0 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Radek Stepanek's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 138 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 53% 72% / 73%
Body 13% 22% ▲ 62% / 63%
T 40% 25% ▼ 72% / 75%

711 normal · 32 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 51% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 9% 9% 62% / 63%
T 49% 40% ▼ 72% / 72%

584 normal · 106 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 59.6%±4.1 n=357 48%
Body13% 58.5%±7.2 n=97 0% ▼
T39% 61.5%±4.5 n=289 52% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.76).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 58.7%±4.5 n=297 39% ▼
Body9% 57.5%±8.4 n=63 0% ▼
T48% 62.1%±4.2 n=330 61% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.51).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.47 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.8±4.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (532 repeats, 869 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 47 31% −5.7±8.7
1stAd courtT 196 25% −3.5±4.7
1stAd courtWide 178 26% −1.2±5.0
1stDeuce courtBody 77 28% −8.7±7.1
1stDeuce courtT 204 20% −4.8±4.3
1stDeuce courtWide 213 27% ±0.0±4.7
2ndAd courtBody 93 47% −2.4±7.4
2ndAd courtT 53 50% +1.1±9.0
2ndAd courtWide 96 50% +1.2±7.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 118 49% +0.1±6.8
2ndDeuce courtT 70 47% −2.8±8.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 59 47% −1.5±8.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Radek Stepanek's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 2.3% · won 68% · +1.2±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH volley down the line used 2.5% · won 65% · −1.2±10.6 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH volley down the line used 2.3% · won 64% · −2.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 2.1% · won 63% · −3.9±11.2 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 2.7% · won 54% · −12.3±10.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → FH down the line, mid used 4.0% · won 50% · +13.2±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.3% · won 48% · +11.0±9.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 7.8% · won 46% · +8.6±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 5.0% · won 45% · +8.0±9.9 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.4% · won 44% · +7.5±9.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 3.1% · won 48% · +9.9±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 47% · +8.9±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH through the middle used 2.6% · won 44% · +6.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.0% · won 44% · +5.4±10.9 vs own baseline
  5. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 42% · +3.3±11.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Radek Stepanek wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.7% · won 50% · +6.3±12.1 vs own baseline · +12.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (5/7)
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 48% · +5.0±12.9 vs own baseline · +7.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.5% · won 47% · +3.7±13.0 vs own baseline · +9.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 0.5% · won 42% · −1.3±12.9 vs own baseline · −0.3 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.7% · won 42% · −1.1±11.9 vs own baseline · −7.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (4/10)
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 41% · −1.9±12.4 vs own baseline · −7.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · return+2.2243
T 1st serve · deuce court+0.8289
BH to the middle · return+0.6256
T 1st serve · ad court+0.6330
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.2297

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−2.2307
BH to their forehand · rally−1.9159
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.6337
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.5187
BH to their backhand · return−1.4190

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nicolas Jarry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

FH down the line43%
Points at net26%
Serve & volley41%
BH down the line30%
T serves · ad48%
Backhand slice33%
Wide serves · deuce48%
Point-ending shots26.2%
Drop shots / shot2.0%
Through the middle26%
1st serve in62%
Unforced errors / shot9.9%
Avg rally length3.8
Chipped returns8%
Deep returns21%
T serves · deuce39%
Wide serves · ad43%
Forehand share46%
Run-around forehands3%

Plays most like

  1. Jonas Bjorkman 1997–2006 plan v
  2. Brad Gilbert 1987–1994 plan v
  3. Mischa Zverev 2013–2020 plan v
  4. Mario Ancic 2002–2008 plan v
  5. Boris Becker 1985–1999 plan v
  6. Malivai Washington 1992–1996 plan v
  7. Todd Martin 1992–2001 plan v
  8. Cedric Pioline 1992–2000 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Brad Gilbert 1987–1994
  2. Boris Becker 1985–1999
  3. Malivai Washington 1992–1996

Charted matches