Game plan

Adrian Andreev v Yuichi Sugita

Every number combines what Adrian Andreev does well with what Yuichi Sugita allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Adrian Andreev wins, best of 3 60%90%: 19%–92% · best of 5: 62%

Serve points won 61.5% / 59.6% Adrian / Yuichi · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 60%serve 61.5% / 59.6%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Adrian Andreev's record against Yuichi Sugita's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Adrian Andreev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Yuichi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	63%	77%	67.9%±11.0	66% ▲
Body	2%	63%	58%	57.4%±19.3	0% ▼
T	45%	73%	79%	77.5%±10.1	34% ▼

Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Adrian wins	v Yuichi	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	66%	61.5%±12.5	34% ▼
Body	5%	64%	66%	66.5%±17.2	5%
T	48%	67%	68%	63.4%±11.9	61% ▲

Optimal v Yuichi Sugita: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Yuichi Sugita serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yuichi wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	65%	64%	55.7%±14.3	41% ▲
Body	4%	62%	58%	57.1%±19.3	0% ▼
T	68%	70%	68%	61.8%±11.3	59% ▼

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.2±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yuichi wins	v Adrian	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	58%	58%	65%	49.1%±12.2	58%
Body	13%	63%	59%	59.1%±17.9	0% ▼
T	29%	69%	69%	66.1%±14.3	42% ▲

Optimal v Adrian Andreev: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +10.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Adrian Andreev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.3	+2.0	−1.1	+5.2±3.0
FH crosscourt	23%	+5.5	+0.9	−0.5	+5.9±3.7
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	+5.3	+1.2	+8.2±3.9
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.3	+0.7	±0.0	−3.7±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.7±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
BH through the middle	53%	+6.4	+2.5	+1.0	+9.9±2.8
BH crosscourt	29%	+8.8	+2.5	+1.6	+12.8±3.3
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+0.9	+0.1	+5.2±3.6
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	+1.0	+1.5	−1.7±2.2
BH slice down the line	3%	−8.4	+1.4	+0.3	−6.6±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yuichi	Value
BH through the middle	62%	−2.9	+0.5	+0.7	−1.7±2.5
BH crosscourt	32%	+1.0	−0.6	−0.9	−0.5±3.2
BH down the line	6%	−0.2	+0.5	+0.7	+1.1±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.6±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (128 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Yuichi Sugita returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.3	+1.4	+3.4	+9.0±3.1
FH down the line	31%	+1.7	−2.1	+4.1	+3.6±4.2
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	+0.4	+2.3	+8.2±3.3

Lean FH through the middle: +1.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+1.6	+2.3	+10.3±2.8
BH crosscourt	36%	+8.8	+1.4	+2.9	+13.1±3.5
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.2	+1.4	−2.9±2.1
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.4	+2.6	+7.2±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (66 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Adrian	Value
BH through the middle	52%	−2.9	+1.9	+1.3	+0.3±2.5
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.0	+1.5	±0.0	+2.5±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Adrian Andreev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+7.2±4.5	+3.5	+3.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.3±4.5	+1.5	+1.8
BH to the middle · rally	+2.3±2.3	+2.5	−0.3
FH to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.6	+2.9	−2.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.1±5.0	−1.2	+1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±2.9	−0.8	−1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±2.9	−0.8	−1.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.1±5.0	−1.2	+1.2
FH to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.6	+2.9	−2.4
BH to the middle · rally	+2.3±2.3	+2.5	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.3±4.5	+1.5	+1.8

Yuichi Sugita

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+5.3±3.7	+1.7	+3.6
FH to the middle · rally	+4.7±2.6	+1.0	+3.6
BH to the middle · return	+4.5±3.3	+1.6	+2.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.4±5.7	+0.3	+3.1
BH to the middle · rally	+0.6±3.0	−1.5	+2.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±4.6	−1.0	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.6±5.1	−6.9	+0.3
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.5±2.8	−2.2	−0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.4±4.5	−0.1	−2.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.3±5.2	−0.6	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−0.5±4.6	−1.0	+0.4

Against Yuichi Sugita-like opponents

Adrian Andreev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.2%	40.8%