Game plan

Alex Molcan v Alessandro Giannessi

Every number combines what Alex Molcan does well with what Alessandro Giannessi allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alex Molcan serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Alessandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	28%	72%	70%	69.3%±11.8	41% ▲
Body	19%	61%	59%	56.8%±15.7	6% ▼
T	52%	66%	77%	67.7%±13.6	53%

Optimal v Alessandro Giannessi: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alex wins	v Alessandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	68%	69%	63.2%±14.6	42%
Body	13%	59%	67%	63.3%±16.0	0% ▼
T	45%	71%	74%	73.2%±10.9	58% ▲

Optimal v Alessandro Giannessi: +0.9±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alessandro Giannessi serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alessandro wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	29%	75%	71%	73.4%±11.6	42% ▲
Body	23%	66%	51%	53.8%±17.3	10% ▼
T	48%	65%	81%	72.6%±11.2	48%

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +1.0±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alessandro wins	v Alex	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	66%	70%	77%	74.8%±10.8	65%
Body	12%	65%	63%	64.4%±16.8	0% ▼
T	22%	71%	73%	71.9%±12.9	35% ▲

Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alex Molcan returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
FH through the middle	34%	+4.3	±0.0	+1.7	+5.9±2.9
FH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−0.8	±0.0	−5.0±1.7
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	+0.7	−3.5	+2.7±3.6
FH down the line	10%	+1.7	−1.2	+1.7	+2.2±3.8
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.3	+0.8	±0.0	−3.6±1.6

Lean FH through the middle: +4.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+1.1	+2.0	+9.5±2.7
BH crosscourt	14%	+8.8	−2.6	±0.0	+6.2±2.9
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.4	+1.8	−2.8±2.2
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+2.8	±0.0	+7.1±3.7
BH slice down the line	10%	−8.4	−0.7	±0.0	−9.1±2.4

Lean BH through the middle: +4.7±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (290 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
FH crosscourt	50%	−0.2	−0.8	±0.0	−1.0±3.1
FH through the middle	38%	−3.5	±0.0	−0.5	−4.0±2.5
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+1.1	+0.9	+0.2±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.0±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alessandro	Value
BH through the middle	66%	−2.9	+2.5	+0.3	−0.1±2.4
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	+1.8	±0.0	+2.8±2.3
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	+2.1	±0.0	+1.9±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.0±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Alessandro Giannessi returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alex	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	−1.3	+0.1	+5.2±2.6
BH down the line	30%	+4.2	+0.8	+2.7	+7.7±4.3
BH slice through the middle	30%	−4.2	+0.2	+1.7	−2.3±2.3

Lean BH down the line: +4.0±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (54 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alex Molcan

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+5.2±2.8	+3.0	+2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+5.2±2.8	+3.0	+2.2

Alessandro Giannessi

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.7±2.9	+3.2	+1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±3.4	−2.9	−1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.2±3.4	−2.9	−1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.7±2.9	+3.2	+1.5

Against Alessandro Giannessi-like opponents

Alex Molcan v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.5%	34.5%