Game plan
Alex Molcan v Nick Hardt
Every number combines what Alex Molcan does well with what Nick Hardt allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Alex Molcan serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Alex wins | v Nick | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 28% | 72% | 65% | 64.1%±13.1 | 41% ▲ |
| Body | 19% | 61% | 59% | 56.3%±15.4 | 6% ▼ |
| T | 52% | 66% | 58% | 47.3%±11.7 | 53% |
Optimal v Nick Hardt: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +10.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Alex wins | v Nick | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 68% | 67% | 61.5%±11.0 | 42% |
| Body | 13% | 59% | 60% | 55.5%±16.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 71% | 70% | 69.2%±13.4 | 58% ▲ |
Optimal v Nick Hardt: +0.9±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Nick Hardt serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Nick wins | v Alex | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 70% | 71% | 67.9%±11.6 | 47% |
| Body | 18% | 60% | 51% | 47.9%±16.7 | 5% ▼ |
| T | 35% | 66% | 81% | 73.6%±11.1 | 48% ▲ |
Optimal v Alex Molcan: +1.1±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Nick wins | v Alex | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 68% | 67% | 77% | 72.1%±11.0 | 68% |
| Body | 13% | 63% | 63% | 62.7%±16.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 19% | 72% | 73% | 73.3%±12.4 | 32% ▲ |
Optimal v Alex Molcan: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Alex Molcan returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 34% | +4.3 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +6.6±2.9 |
| FH slice through the middle | 27% | −4.2 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −5.0±1.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 19% | +5.5 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +6.9±3.8 |
| FH down the line | 10% | +1.7 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5±2.8 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 6% | −4.3 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −3.6±1.6 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (177 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 46% | +6.4 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +7.7±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +8.8 | −2.6 | ±0.0 | +6.2±2.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 14% | −4.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −4.6±1.8 |
| BH down the line | 11% | +4.2 | +2.8 | +1.4 | +8.4±4.5 |
| BH slice down the line | 10% | −8.4 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −9.1±2.4 |
Lean BH down the line: +4.6±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (290 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 50% | −0.2 | −0.8 | +1.0 | −0.1±3.8 |
| FH through the middle | 38% | −3.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.6±2.6 |
| FH down the line | 12% | −1.8 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6±2.5 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (86 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nick | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 66% | −2.9 | +2.5 | +1.4 | +1.0±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 23% | +1.0 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +2.8±2.3 |
| BH down the line | 11% | −0.2 | +2.1 | −1.0 | +0.9±4.5 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (137 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Nick Hardt returning
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Alex | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 50% | +6.4 | +2.4 | +0.1 | +8.9±2.7 |
| BH crosscourt | 33% | +8.8 | +0.7 | +2.7 | +12.2±3.5 |
| BH down the line | 10% | +4.2 | +1.7 | −1.4 | +4.5±3.9 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | +7.7 | +0.4 | −1.1 | +7.0±2.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (72 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Alex Molcan
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.9±2.8 | +3.0 | −2.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −1.5±3.5 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.5±2.7 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · rally | −2.5±2.7 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −1.5±3.5 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.9±2.8 | +3.0 | −2.1 |
Nick Hardt
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · rally | +2.5±2.1 | +0.9 | +1.6 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +1.5±3.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +0.4±3.4 | +1.6 | −1.2 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.5±2.8 | −0.2 | −1.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.5±2.8 | −0.2 | −1.3 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +0.4±3.4 | +1.6 | −1.2 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +1.5±3.1 | ±0.0 | +1.5 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +2.5±2.1 | +0.9 | +1.6 |
Against Nick Hardt-like opponents
| Alex Molcan v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 61.5% | 34.5% |