Game plan

Alexandra Eala v Svetlana Kuznetsova

Every number combines what Alexandra Eala does well with what Svetlana Kuznetsova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexandra Eala wins, best of 3 21%90%: 5%–54% · best of 5: 16%

Serve points won 48.5% / 54.4% Alexandra / Svetlana · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 21%serve 48.5% / 54.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexandra Eala's record against Svetlana Kuznetsova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexandra	Svetlana
Direction choice	−0.02 ±0.07 better than 50%	+0.24 ±0.09 better than 90%
Shot selection	+0.35 ±0.15 better than 83%	+0.19 ±0.15 better than 64%
Execution	+0.51 ±0.45 better than 79%	+0.37 ±0.49 better than 75%
Points left on the table	2.89 ±0.13 lower than 16%	2.35 ±0.12 lower than 81%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexandra Eala serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandra wins	v Svetlana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	30%	66%	63%	62.7%±7.2	40% ▲
Body	29%	56%	64%	62.8%±7.4	34% ▲
T	41%	55%	71%	59.0%±6.7	26% ▼

Optimal v Svetlana Kuznetsova: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandra wins	v Svetlana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	61%	63%	58.9%±6.7	54% ▲
Body	26%	55%	57%	56.2%±8.6	11% ▼
T	35%	62%	62%	59.6%±7.5	35%

Optimal v Svetlana Kuznetsova: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Svetlana Kuznetsova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Svetlana wins	v Alexandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	66%	61%	61.6%±6.0	48%
Body	12%	55%	59%	56.0%±9.0	0% ▼
T	40%	61%	73%	67.5%±6.5	52% ▲

Optimal v Alexandra Eala: +0.2±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Svetlana wins	v Alexandra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	63%	64%	61.5%±6.4	50%
Body	12%	56%	51%	51.3%±9.5	4% ▼
T	38%	59%	59%	53.7%±7.0	46% ▲

Optimal v Alexandra Eala: ±0.0±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexandra Eala returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+1.5	+1.0	+6.7±2.5
FH crosscourt	36%	+5.3	+2.3	+1.1	+8.7±3.8
FH down the line	11%	+1.5	+1.0	−0.6	+1.9±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	4%	−6.6	−0.4	±0.0	−6.9±2.3
FH slice through the middle	3%	−6.7	−0.5	+1.6	−5.6±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (342 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+1.3	+1.3	+8.7±2.2
BH crosscourt	37%	+7.7	+1.3	+3.4	+12.5±3.4
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+3.2	+1.6	+7.0±4.0
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	+2.3	−1.1	−5.0±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.3	+0.2	−4.3±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (436 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
FH through the middle	37%	−3.2	+2.3	+0.9	±0.0±2.9
FH down the line	33%	−0.6	+0.3	±0.0	−0.2±5.0
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+1.6	−3.9	−1.7±4.4

Lean FH through the middle: +0.6±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (134 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
BH crosscourt	48%	+1.5	+1.7	+2.6	+5.7±3.4
BH through the middle	38%	−2.6	+0.9	+1.1	−0.6±2.6
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+0.5	+0.4	+0.4±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−7.5	−1.9	±0.0	−9.4±1.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.5±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted)

Svetlana Kuznetsova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+1.4	−2.1	+3.5±2.3
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.3	+2.0	+1.3	+8.7±3.8
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+1.2	−0.4	−5.9±2.5
FH down the line	10%	+1.5	+2.3	+0.6	+4.5±4.6
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	−0.3	−0.3	−7.3±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (597 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.0	+1.7	+2.9	+10.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.6	+5.8	+11.0±3.1
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	+0.3	+1.5	−4.5±2.5
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+0.6	+1.4	+4.1±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.2	−3.8±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.8±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (541 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+2.0	−1.4	−2.5±2.9
FH crosscourt	29%	+0.5	−0.1	+3.2	+3.6±4.4
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	+3.8	+1.5	+4.8±5.1

Lean FH down the line: +3.7±4.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (129 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandra	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+1.6	−0.8	+2.3±3.3
BH through the middle	25%	−2.6	±0.0	+1.2	−1.4±2.6
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+4.1	+0.7	+4.3±5.3
FH through the middle	10%	−2.7	+0.7	−1.4	−3.4±2.5
FH inside-in	9%	+0.7	−6.1	+3.2	−2.1±4.7

Lean BH down the line: +3.6±5.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Alexandra Eala

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.3±5.1	+5.6	+1.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	+6.0±5.1	+3.6	+2.4
BH to their forehand · return +1	+5.6±6.4	+3.4	+2.2
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.7±3.9	+1.8	+2.9
BH to their forehand · return	+4.3±5.5	+1.9	+2.5
BH to the middle · serve +1	+4.0±3.1	−0.5	+4.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.8±4.2	−3.0	−1.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.6±4.6	−2.4	+0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.4±4.9	+1.2	−2.6
FH to the middle · rally	−0.9±3.1	−2.7	+1.8
BH to their backhand · return	−0.6±4.3	−0.4	−0.3

Svetlana Kuznetsova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+6.1±5.1	+2.7	+3.5
BH to their backhand · return +1	+5.8±4.4	+1.8	+4.0
FH to their backhand · return	+4.3±5.2	+0.8	+3.5
BH to the middle · return	+4.3±3.0	+0.7	+3.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	+4.2±3.3	+3.2	+1.0
FH to their backhand · return +1	+4.1±5.0	+2.0	+2.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−6.4±4.6	+1.3	−7.7
FH to the middle · return	−4.8±3.3	−0.1	−4.7
BH to the middle · rally	−3.7±2.9	−2.0	−1.7
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.7±3.1	−1.5	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.7±4.2	−4.4	+1.7

Against Svetlana Kuznetsova-like opponents

Alexandra Eala v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	54.2%	45.3%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cristina Bucsa, Sorana Cirstea, Daria Kasatkina, Victoria Azarenka, Shelby Rogers, Simona Halep, Kim Clijsters, Christina Mchale, Ana Ivanovic, Elena Dementieva. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.