Game plan

Alexandre Muller v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Every number combines what Alexandre Muller does well with what Alejandro Davidovich Fokina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Alexandre Muller wins, best of 3 17%90%: 5%–41% · best of 5: 12%

Serve points won 57.7% / 65.1% Alexandre / Alejandro · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 16%serve 57.2% / 64.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Alexandre Muller's record against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +5.6 on serve, −2.8 on return vs expectation (309 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Alexandre	Alejandro
Direction choice	−0.14 ±0.16 better than 20%	−0.06 ±0.06 better than 42%
Shot selection	−0.44 ±0.31 better than 14%	−0.04 ±0.10 better than 48%
Execution	−0.70 ±0.65 better than 36%	−0.44 ±0.30 better than 47%
Points left on the table	2.74 ±0.37 lower than 36%	2.43 ±0.11 lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Alexandre Muller serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alexandre wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	65%	71%	62.9%±6.3	48% ▼
Body	12%	55%	59%	50.1%±11.2	0% ▼
T	39%	64%	74%	63.3%±7.4	52% ▲

Optimal v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: +0.5±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alexandre wins	v Alejandro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	67%	71%	64.1%±7.0	59% ▲
Body	11%	55%	61%	53.2%±12.0	10%
T	44%	63%	68%	58.1%±7.3	31% ▼

Optimal v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Alexandre	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	69%	79%	75.8%±5.9	60% ▲
Body	24%	59%	62%	58.2%±11.0	11% ▼
T	29%	66%	80%	71.8%±7.5	29%

Optimal v Alexandre Muller: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Alejandro wins	v Alexandre	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	62%	79%	69.0%±7.2	48% ▲
Body	22%	63%	71%	70.7%±10.7	9% ▼
T	43%	65%	75%	69.2%±8.0	43%

Optimal v Alexandre Muller: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Alexandre Muller returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	+0.4	+1.1	+5.8±2.4
FH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	+0.4	−1.7	−5.6±2.3
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	−1.7	−0.5	−0.6±3.9
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−3.1	−1.4	+1.1±3.5
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	+1.1	−0.6	−3.8±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +4.9±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (169 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	47%	+6.4	+1.0	+1.6	+9.0±2.2
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−1.3	+0.5	+7.9±3.0
BH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−2.4	−3.2	−9.8±2.4
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	+1.1	+0.3	+5.6±4.1
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−1.6	−0.2	−1.2±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +3.6±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (178 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	−0.8	−1.1	−5.4±2.3
FH down the line	24%	−1.8	−0.6	+1.6	−0.8±3.9
FH crosscourt	22%	−0.2	+3.0	+1.8	+4.5±3.4
FH slice through the middle	15%	−12.7	+0.8	−0.5	−12.4±1.8

Lean FH through the middle: −2.3±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (55 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alejandro	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.9	−0.7	−0.8	−4.4±2.2
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	+0.6	−0.1	+1.5±3.0
BH down the line	25%	−0.2	−0.5	+0.2	−0.5±4.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (115 returns charted)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.4	+2.4	+7.1±2.3
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−2.5	+1.1	+0.3±4.1
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	+0.4	−0.7	+5.2±4.1
FH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−0.3	−0.3	−4.8±2.0
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.2	±0.0	−4.4±2.3

Lean FH through the middle: +4.2±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1084 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
BH through the middle	42%	+6.4	+2.6	+0.6	+9.6±2.3
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	+2.0	+1.3	+12.1±3.2
BH slice through the middle	15%	−4.2	−2.1	±0.0	−6.3±2.4
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	−0.8	+0.2	+3.6±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−3.0	+0.7	−1.8±2.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.1±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (962 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	−0.8	+1.2	−3.1±2.8
FH down the line	27%	−1.8	+1.1	−0.6	−1.4±4.7
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	−5.7	−0.6	−6.5±4.4
FH slice through the middle	4%	−12.7	−0.9	±0.0	−13.6±1.2

Lean FH down the line: +2.5±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (220 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Alexandre	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.9	+0.1	+1.4	−1.3±2.2
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.0	+0.1	+2.4	+3.5±2.9
BH down the line	18%	−0.2	−3.4	−2.1	−5.7±4.6
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	+0.1	±0.0	−11.1±1.4
FH inside-out	1%	+1.0	+0.4	−0.6	+0.7±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (669 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Alexandre Muller

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.7±3.7	+0.7	+2.0
BH to the middle · return	+2.3±1.8	−0.1	+2.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±2.7	+1.5	±0.0
BH to their backhand · return	+1.5±2.7	−0.2	+1.7
BH to their forehand · return	+1.2±4.1	+0.2	+1.0
FH to the middle · return	+0.4±2.2	−0.1	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−5.6±3.5	−3.7	−1.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.6±2.9	−2.3	−1.3
FH slice to the middle · rally	−1.8±2.7	−1.4	−0.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	−1.6±2.3	−2.7	+1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±1.8	−1.2	−0.4

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+2.8±1.9	+0.6	+2.2
BH to the middle · return +1	+2.7±2.2	+1.6	+1.1
BH to their backhand · return	+2.6±2.6	±0.0	+2.6
BH to the middle · return	+2.6±1.9	+1.1	+1.5
FH to their forehand · rally	+0.4±2.2	−2.4	+2.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	+0.4±2.8	+0.3	+0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.3±3.6	−1.4	−2.0
FH to their forehand · return	−2.0±3.9	−1.3	−0.7
FH to the middle · serve +1	−1.9±2.3	−2.1	+0.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−1.8±3.3	−5.3	+3.4
FH to their backhand · return	−1.3±3.5	−1.6	+0.3

Against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina-like opponents

Alexandre Muller v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	55.2%	29.6%
Players most similar to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2	60.8%	28.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Carlos Alcaraz, Fabian Marozsan, Tommy Paul, Alexander Shevchenko, Laslo Djere, Holger Rune, Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori, Lukas Rosol. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.