RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 56 charted matches · 2019–2025

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.4% ±2.5 raw 59.4% · tour 63.4% · 4,951 points
Return points won 40.3% ±2.5 raw 37.5% · tour 36.6% · 4,753 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.06 ±0.06 better than 42% of ATP · raw −0.06
Shot selection −0.04 ±0.10 better than 48% of ATP · raw −0.04
Execution −0.44 ±0.30 better than 47% of ATP · raw −0.46
Tactical adaptability +0.12 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 55 matches
Adaptation speed +0.13 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.13 ±0.54 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,779 shots · better than 60% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.43 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 70% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 25,046 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,691 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 51% 50.7%±2.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 16% 40.1%±4.8 43.7%
BH down the line 13% 45.8%±5.2 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 45.3%±7.6 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 38.4%±8.6 35.1%
FH inside-out 4% 53.0%±9.2 51.8%
FH inside-in 3% 52.9%±10.1 54.7%
FH through the middle 2% 34.1%±11.4 45.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,354 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 53.0%±4.3 52.7%
FH down the line 21% 49.3%±4.7 51.5%
BH crosscourt 18% 46.4%±5.1 49.1%
FH through the middle 14% 45.5%±5.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 9% 47.0%±7.0 46.8%
BH down the line 4% 52.4%±9.8 48.3%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 41.1%±10.7 47.0%
FH down the line + approach 2% 71.7%±11.4 70.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,083 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 46.2%±3.9 46.6%
FH down the line 27% 46.4%±4.7 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 41.1%±5.1 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 6% 30.4%±8.4 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 2% 62.5%±12.1 69.3%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 31.4%±11.8 30.9%
FH slice down the line 2% 29.3%±12.1 25.6%
FH drop shot crosscourt 2% 61.8%±13.0 52.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 819 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 44.1%±4.2 48.0%
BH down the line 20% 44.6%±6.1 46.5%
BH through the middle 16% 36.6%±6.4 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 51.9%±9.6 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 4% 36.4%±10.7 35.1%
BH slice down the line 3% 34.5%±12.2 35.8%
FH inside-in 2% 52.1%±13.0 54.3%
FH inside-out 2% 61.3%±12.7 52.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 489 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 54% 69% / 73%
Body 24% 23% 59% / 63%
T 29% 23% 66% / 75%

2,459 normal · 114 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 36% 62% / 73%
Body 23% 20% 63% / 63%
T 43% 44% 65% / 72%

1,991 normal · 375 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 62.3%±2.3 n=1,203 60% ▲
Body24% 57.5%±3.2 n=624 11% ▼
T29% 61.0%±2.9 n=746 29%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.09).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide35% 57.2%±2.8 n=821 35%
Body22% 56.8%±3.4 n=531 9% ▼
T43% 59.2%±2.5 n=1,014 56% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.52).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.46 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.2±2.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,581 repeats, 3,246 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 123 39% +1.6±6.5
1stAd courtT 565 32% +4.0±3.1
1stAd courtWide 693 29% +2.3±2.8
1stDeuce courtBody 163 41% +4.2±5.8
1stDeuce courtT 664 26% +0.5±2.7
1stDeuce courtWide 765 29% +2.3±2.7
2ndAd courtBody 350 47% −2.1±4.2
2ndAd courtT 140 49% −0.6±6.3
2ndAd courtWide 380 47% −1.2±4.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 338 51% +1.7±4.3
2ndDeuce courtT 401 54% +4.1±4.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 147 49% +0.8±6.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 56% · −6.3±7.2 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 56% · −5.9±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 56% · −6.3±6.3 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 54% · −7.7±6.4 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.6% · won 54% · −7.9±5.9 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.4% · won 57% · +16.3±7.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.7% · won 52% · +11.1±6.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.3% · won 54% · +12.9±7.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.0% · won 50% · +9.2±6.2 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 48% · +7.5±7.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.2% · won 53% · +5.5±5.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 55% · +6.9±8.5 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 52% · +3.8±6.0 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 51% · +3.6±7.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 50% · +2.0±4.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Body serve → BH crosscourt return, mid → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 60% · +11.5±9.3 vs own baseline · +16.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Casper Ruud (3/6), Novak Djokovic (5/8)
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 58% · +9.2±8.2 vs own baseline · +6.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Casper Ruud (4/6), Alex De Minaur (6/9)
  3. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.1% · won 66% · +16.8±11.9 vs own baseline · +29.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.6% · won 56% · +7.2±8.0 vs own baseline · +5.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alex De Minaur (2/6), Casper Ruud (6/9)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 54% · +5.0±6.3 vs own baseline · +1.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (7/17), Hubert Hurkacz (8/17)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.3% · won 58% · +9.6±10.3 vs own baseline · +10.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · return +1+2.4236
BH to their forehand · serve +1+1.7249
BH to the middle · return +1+1.6310
Body 2nd serve · ad court+1.2424
BH to the middle · return+1.1992

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−2.3979
FH to their forehand · return +1−2.0374
BH to their backhand · return−1.7634
FH to their forehand · rally−1.51,305
FH to their backhand · return +1−1.2311

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.68, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.65, Roberto Bautista Agut +1.36, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.35, Casper Ruud +1.33

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +0.64, Fabian Marozsan +0.55, Pedro Martinez +0.53, Alexander Shevchenko +0.46, Roberto Carballes Baena +0.44

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in67%
Drop shots / shot3.1%
FH down the line36%
Deep returns33%
Unforced errors / shot11.6%
T serves · ad43%
Wide serves · deuce47%
Point-ending shots25.4%
Avg rally length4.1
BH down the line20%
Chipped returns14%
Forehand share52%
Run-around forehands16%
Serve & volley2%
Backhand slice14%
Points at net8%
Through the middle22%
Wide serves · ad35%
T serves · deuce29%

Plays most like

  1. Fabian Marozsan 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025 plan v
  3. Alexandre Muller 2023–2025 plan v
  4. Lukas Rosol 2012–2019 plan v
  5. Alexander Shevchenko 2023–2026 plan v
  6. Holger Rune 2019–2025 plan v
  7. Carlos Alcaraz 2019–2026 plan v
  8. Fabio Fognini 2012–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  2. Jiri Novak 1996–2004
  3. Andy Roddick 2001–2012

Charted matches