Game plan
Carlos Alcaraz v Andy Murray
Every number combines what Carlos Alcaraz does well with what Andy Murray allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Carlos Alcaraz's record against Andy Murray's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.6 on serve, −0.8 on return vs expectation (3617 points); head-to-head: −7.1 on serve, −2.8 on return vs expectation (197 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Carlos | Andy |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.08 ±0.03 better than 77% | +0.14 ±0.03 better than 87% |
| Shot selection | +0.20 ±0.07 better than 73% | −0.45 ±0.05 better than 13% |
| Execution | +0.54 ±0.21 better than 85% | +0.94 ±0.16 better than 95% |
| Points left on the table | 2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70% | 2.23 ±0.05 lower than 90% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Structural compatibility
Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Carlos Alcaraz +1.42, Andy Murray +0.07. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Carlos Alcaraz serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Andy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 73% | 70% | 70.1%±1.9 | 46% |
| Body | 18% | 67% | 59% | 63.3%±3.5 | 4% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 77% | 76% | 77.2%±2.0 | 50% ▲ |
Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.6±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Carlos wins | v Andy | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 49% | 72% | 71% | 69.7%±2.0 | 50% |
| Body | 16% | 66% | 57% | 60.3%±4.0 | 3% ▼ |
| T | 34% | 72% | 68% | 68.4%±2.3 | 47% ▲ |
Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.9±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Andy Murray serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Andy wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 71% | 66% | 64.0%±2.0 | 43% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 67% | 61% | 65.0%±4.4 | 21% ▲ |
| T | 46% | 80% | 68% | 73.2%±2.0 | 36% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: ±0.0±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Andy wins | v Carlos | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 77% | 67% | 71.5%±2.1 | 60% ▲ |
| Body | 8% | 61% | 58% | 56.7%±4.9 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 45% | 70% | 65% | 62.9%±2.3 | 40% ▼ |
Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.2±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Carlos Alcaraz returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +6.6±0.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 24% | +5.5 | +1.3 | +1.3 | +8.1±1.9 |
| FH down the line | 14% | +1.7 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +3.2±2.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 8% | −4.2 | +0.2 | +1.4 | −2.6±1.4 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +0.8 | +1.1 | −2.4±2.9 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 40% | +6.4 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +7.3±1.0 |
| BH crosscourt | 34% | +8.8 | +1.5 | +0.9 | +11.2±1.5 |
| BH slice through the middle | 10% | −4.2 | −2.3 | −0.4 | −6.9±1.3 |
| BH down the line | 7% | +4.2 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +3.9±2.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 6% | +0.5 | −1.3 | +0.5 | −0.2±2.0 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +5.3±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | −3.5 | −1.0 | +0.7 | −3.7±1.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 36% | −0.2 | −0.2 | +1.5 | +1.1±2.4 |
| FH down the line | 17% | −1.8 | −1.0 | +2.6 | −0.2±3.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −13.8±2.3 |
| FH slice down the line | 1% | −9.4 | −1.6 | −1.4 | −12.4±2.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Andy | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +2.9±1.2 |
| BH through the middle | 27% | −2.9 | −2.1 | +1.1 | −3.8±1.0 |
| BH down the line | 9% | −0.2 | +1.4 | +1.3 | +2.5±3.1 |
| FH through the middle | 7% | −2.9 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −2.2±1.5 |
| FH inside-in | 5% | +0.6 | −1.5 | +1.5 | +0.6±3.1 |
| FH inside-out | 4% | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +2.6 | +3.5±2.8 |
Lean FH inside-out: +3.1±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)
Andy Murray returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 42% | +4.3 | +1.4 | +0.5 | +6.1±0.9 |
| FH down the line | 17% | +1.7 | +6.2 | +1.0 | +8.8±2.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 16% | +5.5 | +1.9 | +0.8 | +8.2±2.0 |
| FH slice through the middle | 14% | −4.2 | +2.7 | −1.5 | −3.1±1.4 |
| FH slice down the line | 5% | −4.3 | +3.1 | +0.9 | −0.3±2.6 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.8±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (5314 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 27% | +8.8 | +4.6 | +0.7 | +14.0±1.3 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | +2.2 | +0.4 | +9.0±1.0 |
| BH slice through the middle | 25% | −4.2 | +2.7 | −2.8 | −4.3±1.3 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 15% | +0.5 | +2.4 | −0.4 | +2.6±2.0 |
| BH slice down the line | 4% | −8.4 | +0.9 | −1.8 | −9.3±3.1 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +8.8±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (4642 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 43% | −3.5 | +1.6 | +0.1 | −1.8±1.5 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +2.5 | −2.0 | −1.3±3.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | −0.2 | +1.9 | −1.0 | +0.6±3.0 |
| BH through the middle | 3% | +0.1 | −1.3 | −1.2 | −2.3±1.6 |
| BH inside-in | 1% | +2.5 | +2.7 | −0.2 | +5.0±2.5 |
Lean BH inside-in: +6.0±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (1297 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Carlos | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 57% | +1.0 | +1.7 | −0.2 | +2.5±1.2 |
| BH through the middle | 29% | −2.9 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −3.9±1.1 |
| BH down the line | 7% | −0.2 | +2.4 | −1.6 | +0.6±3.6 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 3% | −4.0 | −1.9 | −2.1 | −7.9±2.6 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −11.3 | −1.4 | −3.6 | −16.3±2.4 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±0.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Carlos Alcaraz
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH drop shot to their forehand · rally | +11.7±4.8 | +6.3 | +5.5 |
| FH drop shot to their backhand · rally | +10.0±3.9 | +3.6 | +6.4 |
| FH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +8.5±4.5 | +5.2 | +3.3 |
| FH volley to the middle · rally | +8.4±4.9 | +5.3 | +3.1 |
| FH drop shot to their backhand · serve +1 | +8.4±4.4 | +2.7 | +5.6 |
| FH volley to their forehand · serve +1 | +5.5±4.4 | +3.2 | +2.3 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their forehand · return | −8.1±2.9 | −5.2 | −2.9 |
| Smash to their backhand · rally | −3.5±3.5 | −1.4 | −2.1 |
| BH slice to the middle · rally | −3.1±1.1 | −3.8 | +0.7 |
| FH slice to their backhand · rally | −3.0±2.6 | −0.9 | −2.1 |
| Smash to the middle · rally | −2.4±4.5 | −0.3 | −2.1 |
Andy Murray
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH slice to their backhand · return +1 | +4.8±3.3 | +3.4 | +1.5 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return | +4.6±2.5 | +3.3 | +1.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return | +4.2±1.5 | +4.1 | +0.1 |
| FH slice to their forehand · return | +3.7±2.6 | +4.2 | −0.6 |
| BH to their forehand · return | +3.1±2.0 | +3.5 | −0.4 |
| FH to the middle · return | +2.9±0.7 | +1.8 | +1.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH drop shot to their backhand · serve +1 | −6.4±5.0 | −5.7 | −0.7 |
| FH drop shot to their forehand · serve +1 | −5.8±5.4 | −3.2 | −2.5 |
| BH slice to the middle · serve +1 | −4.1±2.4 | −1.7 | −2.3 |
| Smash to their backhand · rally | −4.0±3.7 | −0.8 | −3.2 |
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −3.5±3.8 | +1.5 | −5.0 |
Against Andy Murray-like opponents
| Carlos Alcaraz v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 66.5% | 41.2% |
| Players most similar to Andy Murray | 20 | 65.1% | 38.2% |
| Andy Murray (charted head-to-head) | 1 | 56.3% | 37.6% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Nishesh Basavareddy, Richard Gasquet, Andreas Seppi, Marcos Baghdatis, David Nalbandian. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.