Game plan

Daniil Medvedev v Yannick Hanfmann

Every number combines what Daniil Medvedev does well with what Yannick Hanfmann allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Daniil Medvedev wins, best of 3 83%90%: 61%–95% · best of 5: 89%

Serve points won 65.4% / 57.8% Daniil / Yannick · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 80%serve 64.9% / 58.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Daniil Medvedev's record against Yannick Hanfmann's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.8 on serve, ±0.0 on return vs expectation (2942 points); head-to-head: −7.5 on serve, +20.1 on return vs expectation (115 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Daniil	Yannick
Direction choice	+0.01 ±0.04 better than 58%	+0.01 ±0.14 better than 58%
Shot selection	−0.06 ±0.04 better than 46%	+0.22 ±0.32 better than 74%
Execution	+1.24 ±0.16 better than 98%	−0.66 ±0.91 better than 38%
Points left on the table	2.31 ±0.06 lower than 84%	2.68 ±0.23 lower than 41%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniil Medvedev serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Yannick	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	74%	76%	77.4%±5.0	62% ▲
Body	4%	63%	63%	63.1%±10.3	0% ▼
T	46%	78%	73%	76.4%±5.3	38% ▼

Optimal v Yannick Hanfmann: +0.7±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniil wins	v Yannick	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	78%	75%	80.1%±4.6	40% ▼
Body	5%	60%	71%	67.9%±10.5	0% ▼
T	47%	74%	78%	79.3%±5.4	60% ▲

Optimal v Yannick Hanfmann: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Yannick Hanfmann serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Yannick wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	61%	69%	56.2%±6.2	36% ▼
Body	9%	53%	58%	47.4%±10.1	0% ▼
T	51%	73%	71%	68.1%±5.9	64% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Yannick wins	v Daniil	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	64%	69%	59.5%±6.2	42% ▼
Body	8%	55%	58%	50.3%±11.0	7%
T	38%	68%	70%	65.8%±6.3	51% ▲

Optimal v Daniil Medvedev: +0.8±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniil Medvedev returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.3	+1.4	+3.5	+9.1±2.0
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+3.4	+2.6	+11.5±3.4
FH down the line	15%	+1.7	−0.5	+0.3	+1.4±3.5
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−1.1	−0.3	−5.6±1.8
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	−0.1	±0.0	−4.4±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (5958 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.4	+3.1	+2.8	+12.3±1.9
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	+2.4	+3.1	+14.3±2.7
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+1.6	+1.1	+6.9±3.7
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−1.9	+0.1	−5.9±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−4.5	+1.1	−2.9±2.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (4981 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.5	+1.6	+0.3	−1.6±2.3
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	−1.0	+3.6	+2.3±3.6
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	+1.7	+2.4	+2.3±4.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	±0.0	−13.5±1.7
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+1.2	+1.6	+2.9±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +3.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1558 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Yannick	Value
BH through the middle	51%	−2.9	+2.9	+1.6	+1.6±1.9
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	+1.9	−0.5	+2.4±2.5
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.2	−2.7	−1.7±4.0
FH through the middle	1%	−2.9	−1.0	+0.3	−3.6±2.4
FH inside-in	1%	+0.6	−2.8	+3.6	+1.3±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.9±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2951 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Yannick Hanfmann returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	60%	+4.3	+1.0	+1.6	+6.8±2.1
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	−0.2	±0.0	+5.3±3.4
FH down the line	9%	+1.7	−0.4	−0.7	+0.5±3.2
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.1	+1.1	−3.0±1.5
FH slice down the line	3%	−4.3	−1.0	−0.7	−6.0±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +1.9±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (186 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+8.8	−1.8	+1.0	+8.0±2.8
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+0.5	+2.0	+8.9±2.1
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−0.1	−0.6	−4.9±1.7
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+0.8	+1.1	+6.1±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	−1.9	−2.6	−4.0±2.2

Lean BH through the middle: +2.7±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (208 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
FH through the middle	64%	−3.5	−1.5	+1.1	−3.9±2.2
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	+5.7	−1.3	+4.1±3.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.1±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (64 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniil	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.4	−1.6±1.9
BH crosscourt	39%	+1.0	+0.2	+0.6	+1.9±2.5
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+1.5	+1.6	+2.8±3.6
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	+0.5	+1.1	−1.3±1.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.7±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (151 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Daniil Medvedev

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+6.9±3.4	+2.7	+4.2
BH to the middle · return	+6.5±1.6	+2.9	+3.6
FH to the middle · return	+5.4±1.8	+2.0	+3.4
FH to their forehand · return +1	+4.6±3.1	+2.0	+2.6
BH to their backhand · return	+3.3±2.3	+1.6	+1.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.6±2.2	+2.2	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.8±2.9	−1.3	−2.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.8±2.4	−0.7	−2.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.9±2.6	−2.0	+0.1
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.4±2.5	+1.5	−2.9
BH to the middle · return +1	−0.2±1.9	+2.1	−2.3

Yannick Hanfmann

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+3.1±3.4	+4.1	−0.9
BH to the middle · return	+2.1±1.7	+1.0	+1.2
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.5±2.0	−0.4	+1.8
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.2±1.9	+0.2	+1.0
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.1±3.2	−0.7	+1.7
FH to the middle · rally	+1.0±1.7	−0.5	+1.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.8±2.4	−5.6	+1.8
BH to their backhand · return +1	−2.5±2.6	−3.6	+1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.4±2.1	−4.0	+1.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.3±1.7	−2.2	−0.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.1±2.6	−1.3	+0.2

Against Yannick Hanfmann-like opponents

Daniil Medvedev v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.1%	39.4%
Players most similar to Yannick Hanfmann	18	65.9%	36.5%
Yannick Hanfmann (charted head-to-head)	1	57.4%	60.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Ben Shelton, Arthur Rinderknech, Carlos Alcaraz, Fabian Marozsan, Alejandro Tabilo, Nuno Borges, Zizou Bergs, Gabriel Diallo, Nick Kyrgios, Marco Cecchinato. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.

Charted head-to-head

Yannick Hanfmann v Daniil Medvedev Rome Masters QF · Clay · 18 May 2023