Game plan

Daria Kasatkina v Claudia Kohde Kilsch

Every number combines what Daria Kasatkina does well with what Claudia Kohde Kilsch allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daria Kasatkina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daria wins	v Claudia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	63%	66%	62.8%±12.1	45% ▲
Body	25%	57%	61%	60.4%±11.4	10% ▼
T	32%	65%	66%	63.1%±11.5	45% ▲

Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daria wins	v Claudia	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	57%	60%	50.6%±10.5	40%
Body	22%	52%	55%	50.9%±13.6	7% ▼
T	38%	61%	67%	63.5%±13.5	53% ▲

Optimal v Claudia Kohde Kilsch: +0.7±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +7.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Claudia Kohde Kilsch serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Claudia wins	v Daria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	63%	66.9%±11.2	43% ▲
Body	40%	54%	52%	47.8%±11.2	25% ▼
T	26%	59%	67%	58.1%±12.5	32% ▲

Optimal v Daria Kasatkina: +1.1±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +10.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Claudia wins	v Daria	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	20%	67%	60%	61.6%±13.9	25% ▲
Body	42%	55%	56%	54.6%±11.4	27% ▼
T	39%	56%	63%	54.5%±11.9	48% ▲

Optimal v Daria Kasatkina: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daria Kasatkina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
FH through the middle	39%	+4.2	+3.2	−1.0	+6.4±2.5
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+2.1	−0.1	+7.4±3.8
FH slice through the middle	17%	−6.7	+0.9	±0.0	−5.8±1.5
FH down the line	12%	+1.5	+6.0	+0.1	+7.7±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	9%	−6.6	+1.7	±0.0	−4.9±1.9

Lean FH down the line: +4.5±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (1118 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.0	+2.8	−1.6	+7.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	28%	+7.7	+2.8	+0.1	+10.7±2.6
BH down the line	12%	+2.2	+3.5	±0.0	+5.7±3.0
BH slice through the middle	6%	−6.2	+1.6	+0.9	−3.7±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−1.0	+0.7	−4.4±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1078 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+3.7	±0.0	+0.4±2.6
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+0.6	+0.2	+1.4±4.1
FH down the line	21%	−0.6	+2.6	−1.9	+0.1±4.8
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+1.3	±0.0	−13.9±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (226 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Claudia	Value
BH through the middle	35%	−2.6	+1.9	−0.1	−0.8±2.0
BH crosscourt	31%	+1.5	+1.1	±0.0	+2.6±2.1
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	+0.7	±0.0	+0.2±3.6
FH inside-out	9%	+1.4	+0.4	−1.9	−0.2±3.9
FH through the middle	7%	−2.7	+1.3	±0.0	−1.4±2.3
FH inside-in	4%	+0.7	+3.3	+0.2	+4.2±4.2

Lean FH inside-in: +3.7±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (596 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Claudia Kohde Kilsch returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daria	Value
BH slice crosscourt	67%	−4.2	+3.8	−1.1	−1.4±3.0
BH slice through the middle	33%	−6.2	−0.1	+2.1	−4.3±2.4

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +0.9±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Daria Kasatkina

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+7.5±3.0	+3.1	+4.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.0±5.2	+3.8	+0.2
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+2.7±4.2	+0.7	+2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±5.0	−0.9	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.4±5.0	−0.9	+0.5
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+2.7±4.2	+0.7	+2.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.0±5.2	+3.8	+0.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+7.5±3.0	+3.1	+4.3

Claudia Kohde Kilsch

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.0±3.6	+3.8	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.1±5.3	−7.4	+3.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.6±4.9	−5.7	+0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.6±4.9	−5.7	+0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−4.1±5.3	−7.4	+3.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+5.0±3.6	+3.8	+1.2

Against Claudia Kohde Kilsch-like opponents

Daria Kasatkina v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	52.8%	45.4%