Game plan

David Ferrer v Carlos Alcaraz

Every number combines what David Ferrer does well with what Carlos Alcaraz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

David Ferrer wins, best of 3 18%90%: 9%–29% · best of 5: 12%

Serve points won 55.3% / 62.4% David / Carlos · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 18%serve 55.3% / 62.4%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by David Ferrer's record against Carlos Alcaraz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	David	Carlos
Direction choice	−0.03 ±0.06 better than 48%	+0.08 ±0.03 better than 77%
Shot selection	+0.44 ±0.08 better than 89%	+0.20 ±0.07 better than 73%
Execution	+0.21 ±0.29 better than 76%	+0.54 ±0.21 better than 85%
Points left on the table	2.21 ±0.08 lower than 92%	2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

David Ferrer serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	67%	66%	59.9%±3.2	44%
Body	20%	61%	61%	59.0%±5.0	33% ▲
T	36%	67%	68%	58.8%±3.7	23% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.3±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	David wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	67%	67%	61.1%±3.5	51% ▲
Body	17%	57%	58%	52.5%±5.6	18%
T	44%	63%	65%	55.4%±3.4	31% ▼

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Carlos Alcaraz serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	73%	74%	74.0%±2.7	59% ▲
Body	18%	67%	60%	63.7%±5.4	4% ▼
T	37%	77%	73%	74.8%±2.9	37%

Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v David	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	71%	70.1%±3.0	50%
Body	16%	66%	62%	64.6%±5.7	3% ▼
T	34%	72%	74%	74.6%±3.2	47% ▲

Optimal v David Ferrer: +0.9±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

David Ferrer returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	45%	+4.3	−0.9	+0.5	+3.8±1.4
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−0.8	+0.8	+5.5±2.8
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−0.6	+1.0	+2.0±2.9
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.6	−1.5	−6.4±1.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.5	+0.9	−2.8±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (1210 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−0.5	+0.4	+6.3±1.3
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	+3.1	+0.7	+12.6±1.9
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−0.3	−2.8	−7.3±1.9
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	+2.6	+0.1	+6.8±3.4
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	−3.6	−1.8	−13.8±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1260 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	+1.5	+0.1	−1.9±2.1
FH down the line	35%	−1.8	+3.0	−2.0	−0.7±3.7
FH crosscourt	19%	−0.2	−0.2	−1.0	−1.5±3.7
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−1.0	−0.5	−14.2±2.0
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.1	−1.2	−0.9±1.1

Lean FH down the line: +1.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.0	+0.4	−0.2	+1.2±1.6
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	−0.1	−1.2	−4.2±1.4
BH down the line	4%	−0.2	+1.9	−1.6	+0.1±4.1
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.4	+0.1	−2.4±1.9
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	+2.4	−2.0	+1.3±3.0
FH inside-in	2%	+0.6	+3.1	−1.0	+2.6±3.5

Lean FH inside-in: +3.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (945 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Carlos Alcaraz returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+1.2	+1.4	+6.9±1.2
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.3	−0.6	+6.2±2.7
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+1.2	+4.2	+7.1±2.7
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+0.2	+0.8	−3.3±2.0
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.8	−1.1	−4.6±3.1

Lean FH down the line: +1.7±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.0	+1.1	+8.5±1.2
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+1.5	+1.4	+11.7±1.8
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.3	+1.5	−5.0±1.7
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.5	+1.1	+4.8±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.3	+2.6	+1.9±2.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.7±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	−1.0	+1.1	−3.4±1.9
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.2	+1.4	+0.9±3.6
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−1.0	+1.0	−1.7±3.8
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	−0.3	−13.8±1.8
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−1.6	±0.0	−11.0±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v David	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+0.1	+1.4	+2.5±1.7
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−2.1	±0.0	−5.0±1.3
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.4	−0.1	+1.1±3.7
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	±0.0	+1.1	−1.8±1.9
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	−1.5	+1.4	+0.5±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

David Ferrer

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+6.5±7.3	+5.6	+0.9
BH to their forehand · return	+4.0±3.8	+5.3	−1.3
Smash to their forehand · rally	+4.0±6.1	+1.4	+2.5
FH slice to their backhand · return	+2.8±4.1	+2.1	+0.7
BH to the middle · serve +1	+2.4±2.2	+2.2	+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.1±2.6	+2.1	±0.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−10.9±7.4	−2.6	−8.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−6.4±2.7	−5.2	−1.2
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−5.7±4.4	−3.0	−2.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.5±2.5	−2.5	−3.0
BH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.5±5.1	−3.3	−2.2

Carlos Alcaraz

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+11.5±6.9	+6.5	+5.0
Smash to their forehand · rally	+9.2±6.1	+6.0	+3.2
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+9.1±7.5	+3.3	+5.8
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+6.6±7.5	+5.9	+0.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+4.6±2.7	+2.9	+1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.1±1.4	+1.5	+2.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to the middle · rally	−4.1±2.4	−4.0	−0.2
BH slice to the middle · return	−3.2±2.6	−2.7	−0.5
FH slice to the middle · rally	−2.8±3.3	−2.2	−0.6
FH to the middle · return +1	−2.6±2.5	−0.3	−2.2
BH slice to their backhand · return	−2.4±3.3	−3.4	+1.0

Against Carlos Alcaraz-like opponents

David Ferrer v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.3%	36.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, Fabian Marozsan, Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Tabilo, Pablo Carreno Busta, Zizou Bergs, Lorenzo Sonego, Francisco Cerundolo, Luca Nardi. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.