Game plan

Dominic Thiem v Marton Fucsovics

Every number combines what Dominic Thiem does well with what Marton Fucsovics allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Dominic Thiem wins, best of 3 56%90%: 42%–69% · best of 5: 57%

Serve points won 61.9% / 60.7% Dominic / Marton · tour 63.8%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 47%serve 61.4% / 62.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Dominic Thiem's record against Marton Fucsovics's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.3 on serve, +3.4 on return vs expectation (1665 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Dominic	Marton
Direction choice	+0.12 ±0.03 better than 83%	−0.08 ±0.08 better than 36%
Shot selection	−0.28 ±0.08 better than 25%	−0.45 ±0.12 better than 13%
Execution	+0.04 ±0.20 better than 71%	−0.38 ±0.31 better than 49%
Points left on the table	2.48 ±0.05 lower than 63%	2.57 ±0.09 lower than 53%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Dominic Thiem −0.86, Marton Fucsovics −1.00. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Dominic Thiem serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Dominic wins	v Marton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	73%	74%	74.6%±3.2	60% ▲
Body	5%	61%	56%	53.9%±7.8	0% ▼
T	48%	74%	72%	70.9%±3.7	40% ▼

Optimal v Marton Fucsovics: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Dominic wins	v Marton	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	71%	69%	67.0%±3.6	47% ▼
Body	7%	64%	56%	56.6%±8.5	0% ▼
T	40%	71%	73%	72.2%±3.8	53% ▲

Optimal v Marton Fucsovics: +0.5±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Marton Fucsovics serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marton wins	v Dominic	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	69%	73%	68.5%±3.9	52% ▲
Body	14%	68%	63%	67.5%±6.2	1% ▼
T	47%	69%	73%	66.1%±3.8	47%

Optimal v Dominic Thiem: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marton wins	v Dominic	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	68%	72%	66.8%±3.7	54%
Body	13%	63%	65%	64.7%±6.7	0% ▼
T	33%	71%	72%	71.6%±4.4	46% ▲

Optimal v Dominic Thiem: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Dominic Thiem returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−1.4	+0.1	+2.9±1.6
FH down the line	22%	+1.7	−1.0	−3.3	−2.6±3.4
FH crosscourt	17%	+5.5	−1.0	+2.3	+6.9±3.3
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−1.0	+1.1	−4.1±2.1
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	−3.2	+0.7	−6.8±3.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.4±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (2907 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
BH through the middle	34%	+6.4	−1.0	+0.3	+5.7±1.4
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−2.3	−1.5	−8.0±1.7
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	−1.5	+0.4	+7.7±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	13%	+0.5	−2.3	−1.6	−3.4±2.3
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−4.1	−2.8	−2.7±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (3946 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−0.5	−0.2	−4.2±2.1
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	+0.8	+0.9	+1.5±3.8
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−0.8	−3.6	−6.1±4.3
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.5	±0.0	−13.2±1.8
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−0.3	±0.0	−9.7±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.6±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (802 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marton	Value
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	−1.0	+1.2	−2.6±1.4
BH crosscourt	27%	+1.0	+1.2	−1.6	+0.6±1.9
FH through the middle	13%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.2	−2.2±1.8
FH inside-out	9%	+1.0	+0.2	−3.6	−2.4±3.3
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−5.1	+1.6	−3.7±4.3
FH inside-in	4%	+0.6	+0.8	+0.9	+2.3±4.2

Lean FH inside-in: +4.6±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2564 returns charted)

Marton Fucsovics returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
FH through the middle	50%	+4.3	+0.8	−1.2	+3.8±1.5
FH down the line	18%	+1.7	−1.8	−1.3	−1.5±3.1
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	−0.8	−1.6	−6.6±2.0
FH crosscourt	11%	+5.5	−2.1	−1.6	+1.9±3.4
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	−2.4	+1.2	−5.4±3.2

Lean FH through the middle: +3.3±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (913 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+2.0	−1.1	+7.3±1.5
BH crosscourt	22%	+8.8	+1.8	+0.8	+11.4±2.2
BH slice through the middle	19%	−4.2	−1.9	−1.9	−8.1±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.2	−1.4	−2.1±2.5
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+1.9	−4.4	+1.7±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (925 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
FH through the middle	60%	−3.5	+0.5	−0.9	−3.8±2.1
FH down the line	21%	−1.8	+2.2	−0.8	−0.3±3.9
FH crosscourt	18%	−0.2	−0.7	−3.1	−4.0±3.7

Lean FH down the line: +2.8±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (197 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Dominic	Value
BH through the middle	43%	−2.9	+0.4	±0.0	−2.5±1.5
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+0.7	±0.0	+1.8±2.0
BH down the line	11%	−0.2	−0.4	−0.4	−1.0±4.0
FH through the middle	4%	−2.9	+0.9	−0.9	−2.8±1.8
FH inside-in	3%	+0.6	−0.4	−3.1	−3.0±3.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (602 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Dominic Thiem

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their backhand · rally	+6.0±7.6	+1.8	+4.2
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.9±7.8	+4.9	±0.0
FH to their forehand · return	+3.3±4.1	−0.2	+3.5
BH to the middle · return +1	+1.2±2.2	+1.6	−0.4
FH to the middle · return +1	+1.2±2.5	+1.3	−0.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.1±3.4	+1.2	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−10.5±7.1	−5.3	−5.3
BH to their forehand · return	−6.3±4.2	−5.4	−0.9
BH to their forehand · return +1	−6.2±5.5	−1.4	−4.8
FH to their backhand · return	−5.1±3.7	−0.4	−4.7
BH slice to their backhand · return	−4.0±2.7	−2.3	−1.8

Marton Fucsovics

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+5.0±7.4	+7.7	−2.7
BH to their backhand · return	+3.5±2.0	+1.9	+1.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.4±2.3	+2.1	+1.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.0±2.9	+1.8	+1.3
FH to the middle · return +1	+2.8±2.4	+1.9	+0.9
BH to the middle · return	+2.0±1.4	+2.1	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−10.9±7.3	−6.1	−4.8
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−8.1±7.1	−4.6	−3.5
BH to their forehand · rally	−8.0±3.1	−5.2	−2.7
BH slice to their forehand · return +1	−7.8±5.0	−4.4	−3.4
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−7.0±3.5	−0.9	−6.0

Against Marton Fucsovics-like opponents

Dominic Thiem v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	64.6%	36.3%
Players most similar to Marton Fucsovics	10	67.5%	40.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, Marcos Giron, Miomir Kecmanovic, Radu Albot, Robin Haase, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Paolo Lorenzi, Guillermo Garcia Lopez. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.