Game plan

Gaston Gaudio v Corentin Moutet

Every number combines what Gaston Gaudio does well with what Corentin Moutet allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Gaston Gaudio wins, best of 3 82%90%: 53%–96% · best of 5: 87%

Serve points won 61.6% / 54.7% Gaston / Corentin · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 78%serve 61.0% / 55.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Gaston Gaudio's record against Corentin Moutet's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +24.8 on serve, +13.2 on return vs expectation (88 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Gaston	Corentin
Direction choice	−0.11 ±0.11 better than 28%	−0.08 ±0.13 better than 37%
Shot selection	−0.44 ±0.15 better than 15%	−1.02 ±0.20 better than 2%
Execution	−0.18 ±0.54 better than 58%	−0.24 ±0.41 better than 56%
Points left on the table	2.79 ±0.21 lower than 32%	3.10 ±0.17 lower than 16%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Gaston Gaudio serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Gaston wins	v Corentin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	33%	69%	75%	71.1%±7.7	46% ▲
Body	7%	65%	66%	68.2%±12.1	7%
T	60%	63%	71%	58.2%±8.4	47% ▼

Optimal v Corentin Moutet: +0.9±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Gaston wins	v Corentin	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	62%	68%	70%	65.5%±7.8	59% ▼
Body	10%	55%	62%	54.4%±13.6	0% ▼
T	28%	69%	74%	71.6%±8.6	41% ▲

Optimal v Corentin Moutet: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Corentin Moutet serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Corentin wins	v Gaston	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	26%	70%	66%	63.0%±9.2	39% ▲
Body	20%	56%	64%	56.9%±14.9	6% ▼
T	55%	67%	76%	68.8%±8.2	55%

Optimal v Gaston Gaudio: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Corentin wins	v Gaston	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	64%	63%	52.9%±8.4	39% ▼
Body	24%	66%	65%	67.5%±13.1	24%
T	24%	73%	67%	68.5%±9.7	37% ▲

Optimal v Gaston Gaudio: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +8.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Gaston Gaudio returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Corentin	Value
FH through the middle	63%	+4.3	+1.5	−1.4	+4.3±2.7
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	+3.2	−0.9	+4.0±4.5
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	+1.2	−1.2	+5.5±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±4.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (163 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Corentin	Value
BH slice through the middle	32%	−4.2	−1.4	−0.5	−6.1±2.5
BH through the middle	28%	+6.4	−0.5	+1.8	+7.7±2.4
BH crosscourt	19%	+8.8	−2.0	+0.9	+7.7±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	11%	+0.5	+0.5	+0.2	+1.2±2.7
BH down the line	6%	+4.2	−1.8	+0.3	+2.7±3.8

Lean BH through the middle: +6.2±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (172 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Corentin	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.5	+1.2	−0.1	−2.4±2.8
FH crosscourt	27%	−0.2	−1.6	+3.1	+1.2±4.2
FH down the line	27%	−1.8	+1.3	+0.4	−0.1±4.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (101 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Corentin	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.9	+1.5	+0.9	−0.5±2.3
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.0	−1.3	−0.7	−0.9±3.2
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−2.7	−1.3	−4.2±4.9
BH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.0	−1.1	±0.0	−5.1±1.3
BH slice through the middle	5%	−11.3	+0.6	−0.5	−11.2±1.7

Lean BH through the middle: +1.5±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (156 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Corentin Moutet returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gaston	Value
FH slice through the middle	37%	−4.2	+2.1	−0.3	−2.5±2.0
FH slice crosscourt	26%	−4.3	+4.6	±0.0	+0.3±2.0
FH through the middle	15%	+4.3	+0.7	+1.9	+6.8±3.1
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+0.7	−0.4	+5.8±4.4
FH slice down the line	7%	−4.3	−4.0	±0.0	−8.2±2.1

Lean FH through the middle: +6.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (335 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gaston	Value
BH through the middle	31%	+6.4	−0.4	+0.8	+6.8±2.5
BH slice through the middle	28%	−4.2	+1.2	+1.2	−1.9±2.4
BH slice down the line	15%	−8.4	+2.2	+1.1	−5.2±3.4
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+0.2	−1.2	+3.2±4.6
BH crosscourt	10%	+8.8	−3.6	±0.0	+5.2±3.6

Lean BH through the middle: +5.1±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (508 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gaston	Value
FH through the middle	40%	−3.5	−1.2	−0.8	−5.4±2.9
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−2.1	+1.5	−0.8±4.4
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	±0.0	±0.0	−1.8±4.5
FH slice through the middle	11%	−12.7	−0.3	±0.0	−12.9±1.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (161 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Gaston	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.6	−0.6	−3.0±2.5
BH crosscourt	17%	+1.0	−0.7	−0.9	−0.6±3.1
BH down the line	17%	−0.2	−3.5	−0.9	−4.6±5.0
FH inside-in	9%	+0.6	−0.8	+1.5	+1.3±4.3
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	+0.4	−0.8	−3.2±2.3

Lean FH inside-in: +4.2±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (268 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Gaston Gaudio

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+3.5±2.9	+1.7	+1.8
BH to the middle · return	+3.2±2.8	+0.6	+2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.6±3.7	+3.2	−0.5
FH to their forehand · return +1	+2.2±6.1	+1.0	+1.3
BH to their forehand · rally	+2.2±5.4	−2.4	+4.6
FH to the middle · return	+2.1±3.2	+2.7	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.6±4.5	−4.3	−0.3
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−2.5±3.7	+0.7	−3.2
BH to their backhand · return	−2.4±4.3	−4.2	+1.8
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.3±4.8	−0.7	−1.5
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.2±3.0	−1.8	−0.4

Corentin Moutet

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+3.4±2.9	+2.1	+1.2
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.3±3.7	+2.0	+1.3
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.6±3.7	+1.0	+1.6
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+1.8±3.6	−0.6	+2.3
FH to their forehand · return +1	+1.4±6.0	+0.3	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.3±3.2	+1.4	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−5.6±4.2	−2.9	−2.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.1±5.3	−2.2	−2.9
FH to their backhand · return	−3.6±5.1	−2.0	−1.6
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.0±4.9	−2.7	+0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±3.6	−3.2	+1.3

Against Corentin Moutet-like opponents

Gaston Gaudio v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	56.0%	39.8%
Players most similar to Corentin Moutet	1	80.0%	47.9%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Lorenzo Musetti, Pedro Martinez, Rafael Nadal, Gijs Brouwer, Daniel Evans, Robin Haase, Marco Cecchinato, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Guillermo Garcia Lopez. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.