Game plan

Goran Ivanisevic v Carlos Alcaraz

Every number combines what Goran Ivanisevic does well with what Carlos Alcaraz allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Goran Ivanisevic wins, best of 3 24%90%: 10%–44% · best of 5: 19%

Serve points won 62.4% / 68.2% Goran / Carlos · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 24%serve 62.4% / 68.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Goran Ivanisevic's record against Carlos Alcaraz's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Goran	Carlos
Direction choice	−0.30 ±0.08 better than 5%	+0.08 ±0.03 better than 77%
Shot selection	+0.24 ±0.16 better than 75%	+0.20 ±0.07 better than 73%
Execution	−0.76 ±0.38 better than 34%	+0.54 ±0.21 better than 85%
Points left on the table	4.76 ±0.30 lower than 1%	2.43 ±0.05 lower than 70%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Goran Ivanisevic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Goran wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	82%	66%	77.1%±3.1	34% ▼
Body	5%	63%	61%	61.0%±8.0	0% ▼
T	53%	81%	68%	74.7%±2.9	66% ▲

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.3±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Goran wins	v Carlos	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	81%	67%	76.4%±2.7	44% ▼
Body	3%	66%	58%	61.7%±9.5	0% ▼
T	43%	88%	65%	84.4%±2.7	56% ▲

Optimal v Carlos Alcaraz: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Carlos Alcaraz serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Goran	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	46%	73%	79%	79.1%±2.3	59% ▲
Body	18%	67%	68%	71.3%±5.2	4% ▼
T	37%	77%	84%	85.4%±2.4	37%

Optimal v Goran Ivanisevic: +0.6±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Carlos wins	v Goran	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	78%	77.4%±2.9	50%
Body	16%	66%	63%	65.4%±5.4	3% ▼
T	34%	72%	78%	78.2%±2.8	47% ▲

Optimal v Goran Ivanisevic: +0.8±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Goran Ivanisevic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	−3.9	+0.5	+0.8±1.5
FH down the line	25%	+1.7	−3.1	+0.8	−0.6±2.9
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+0.8	+1.0	+7.3±3.0
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	−0.2	−2.8	−4.6±1.5
BH inside-in	1%	+7.7	±0.0	+0.1	+7.8±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.4±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (827 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH slice through the middle	27%	−4.2	−1.7	−2.8	−8.7±1.5
BH through the middle	23%	+6.4	−6.1	+0.4	+0.7±1.5
BH down the line	16%	+4.2	−6.9	+0.7	−2.0±2.7
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−2.2	−1.8	−3.5±2.7
BH slice down the line	11%	−8.4	+2.6	−0.4	−6.1±2.8
FH through the middle	1%	+7.7	−3.1	+0.5	+5.1±1.7

Lean FH through the middle: +8.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1565 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
FH through the middle	48%	−3.5	−1.3	+0.1	−4.6±2.0
FH crosscourt	35%	−0.2	+2.9	−2.0	+0.7±3.4
FH down the line	16%	−1.8	+3.8	−1.0	+1.0±4.0
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	−0.6	−1.6	+0.3±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +2.8±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (355 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Carlos	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	−1.7	−1.2	−5.8±1.2
BH down the line	21%	−0.2	+1.4	−0.2	+1.0±3.0
BH crosscourt	20%	+1.0	−3.6	−1.6	−4.2±2.3
FH through the middle	3%	−2.9	−0.4	+0.1	−3.2±1.9
BH slice through the middle	3%	−11.3	−0.5	−3.6	−15.4±2.4
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+4.6	−1.0	+4.5±3.0

Lean FH inside-out: +8.5±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1106 returns charted)

Carlos Alcaraz returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	+1.2	−1.9	+3.6±1.6
FH crosscourt	24%	+5.5	+1.3	+1.8	+8.6±2.8
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	+1.2	−4.4	−1.5±3.5
FH slice through the middle	8%	−4.2	+0.2	−3.2	−7.2±2.0
FH slice down the line	2%	−4.3	+0.8	−0.4	−3.9±2.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (4205 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.0	−2.0	+5.4±1.6
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	+1.5	−1.2	+9.1±2.5
BH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.3	−2.0	−8.5±1.6
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	−0.5	−4.7	−1.0±3.5
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−1.3	+6.7	+5.9±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (4723 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
FH through the middle	42%	−3.5	−1.0	−2.8	−7.3±1.9
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	−0.2	+0.6	+0.1±3.0
FH down the line	17%	−1.8	−1.0	−6.2	−9.0±4.1
FH slice through the middle	2%	−12.7	−0.8	+1.0	−12.5±1.9
FH slice down the line	1%	−9.4	−1.6	±0.0	−11.0±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.0±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (1132 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Goran	Value
BH crosscourt	45%	+1.0	+0.1	−0.5	+0.6±2.0
BH through the middle	27%	−2.9	−2.1	−1.1	−6.0±1.3
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	+1.4	+1.6	+2.8±3.7
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	±0.0	−2.8	−5.7±1.8
FH inside-in	5%	+0.6	−1.5	+0.6	−0.3±3.5

Lean BH down the line: +4.7±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (2787 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Goran Ivanisevic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+5.7±4.8	+10.7	−5.0
BH slice to their forehand · return	+3.6±3.0	+5.2	−1.6
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+3.0±5.0	+4.6	−1.6
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+2.4±5.1	+5.4	−3.0
Smash to their forehand · rally	+2.2±3.9	+1.3	+0.9
BH to the middle · serve +1	+1.6±2.1	+1.2	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−12.1±4.6	−5.7	−6.4
FH volley to the middle · rally	−9.7±5.5	−5.6	−4.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−8.2±2.1	−6.0	−2.2
FH to their forehand · return +1	−8.2±2.6	−6.8	−1.3
FH volley to their forehand · serve +1	−7.9±4.5	−8.3	+0.4

Carlos Alcaraz

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+12.6±4.8	+4.9	+7.7
FH volley to their backhand · rally	+8.5±4.7	+2.9	+5.6
Smash to their forehand · rally	+5.9±4.0	+4.1	+1.8
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+5.3±4.7	+0.3	+5.1
BH lob to their backhand · return +1	+4.5±4.2	+3.8	+0.7
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+4.4±2.5	±0.0	+4.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−7.0±4.5	+2.0	−9.1
FH to their forehand · return	−6.7±2.8	+0.4	−7.1
BH slice to their backhand · return	−4.7±2.1	−1.1	−3.6
BH to the middle · return +1	−4.0±1.7	+0.6	−4.7
BH slice to the middle · return	−4.0±1.5	−1.7	−2.3

Against Carlos Alcaraz-like opponents

Goran Ivanisevic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	68.5%	31.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, Fabian Marozsan, Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Tabilo, Pablo Carreno Busta, Zizou Bergs, Lorenzo Sonego, Francisco Cerundolo, Luca Nardi. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.