Game plan

Jason Kubler v Raphael Collignon

Every number combines what Jason Kubler does well with what Raphael Collignon allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jason Kubler wins, best of 3 19%90%: 2%–63% · best of 5: 13%

Serve points won 54.4% / 61.2% Jason / Raphael · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 19%serve 54.4% / 61.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jason Kubler's record against Raphael Collignon's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jason	Raphael
Direction choice	+0.03 ±0.10 better than 66%	±0.00 ±0.08 better than 56%
Shot selection	+0.26 ±0.30 better than 77%	+0.31 ±0.27 better than 81%
Execution	+0.04 ±0.34 better than 70%	−0.34 ±0.59 better than 52%
Points left on the table	2.17 ±0.12 lower than 95%	2.32 ±0.21 lower than 82%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jason Kubler serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jason wins	v Raphael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	70%	75%	72.2%±9.6	39% ▼
Body	11%	62%	67%	66.4%±13.8	0% ▼
T	48%	74%	76%	75.1%±8.8	61% ▲

Optimal v Raphael Collignon: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jason wins	v Raphael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	64%	70%	61.0%±11.4	61% ▲
Body	8%	62%	62%	61.6%±15.8	8%
T	44%	60%	67%	54.2%±10.7	31% ▼

Optimal v Raphael Collignon: +0.2±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Raphael Collignon serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Raphael wins	v Jason	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	72%	69%	67.8%±9.3	52% ▲
Body	12%	67%	59%	62.4%±14.5	0% ▼
T	46%	72%	80%	77.5%±8.7	48% ▲

Optimal v Jason Kubler: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Raphael wins	v Jason	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	74%	74%	75.1%±9.3	51% ▲
Body	10%	59%	54%	50.5%±15.9	0% ▼
T	52%	72%	66%	65.7%±10.3	49% ▼

Optimal v Jason Kubler: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jason Kubler returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
FH through the middle	51%	+4.3	+2.6	+3.1	+10.0±3.0
FH down the line	28%	+1.7	+2.4	+6.0	+10.1±4.5
FH crosscourt	15%	+5.5	−2.1	−2.9	+0.4±4.1
FH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	+0.6	+0.7	−2.9±2.0

Lean FH down the line: +2.3±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (161 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.4	−0.1	+2.3	+8.6±2.8
BH crosscourt	26%	+8.8	+2.7	+1.6	+13.0±3.6
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−0.4	+0.8	+4.6±4.1
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−1.7	−0.8	−6.7±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−0.7	+1.1	+0.9±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (164 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
BH crosscourt	49%	+1.0	+1.0	−2.8	−0.8±3.2
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	+0.9	+0.7	−1.3±2.6
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	−1.4	+1.2	−0.4±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Raphael Collignon returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jason	Value
FH through the middle	61%	+4.3	+1.9	±0.0	+6.2±3.0
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+0.9	+1.5	+7.9±4.2
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−0.3	+1.7	+3.2±4.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.7±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jason	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+1.4	+0.9	+8.7±2.8
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	+3.3	+0.3	+12.4±3.6
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	−1.2	+2.0	+1.4±2.4
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.1	−0.9	−5.0±2.1
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	+0.7	±0.0	−7.7±1.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jason	Value
BH through the middle	49%	−2.9	+1.4	−1.1	−2.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+0.2	+0.9	+2.1±3.2
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+0.6	−2.6	−2.1±3.6
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.3	−1.7	−4.2±1.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Jason Kubler

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+7.2±3.7	+2.4	+4.8
FH to the middle · rally	+6.7±3.4	+3.3	+3.4
BH to the middle · return	+2.4±3.5	+0.2	+2.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.6±4.3	+1.0	+0.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.5±5.1	−1.1	+2.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.5±5.1	−1.5	+3.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−5.0±4.2	−2.8	−2.2
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.9±5.4	−6.6	+1.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.1±5.9	−0.9	−2.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−0.7±3.6	+0.9	−1.6
BH to the middle · rally	+0.9±3.1	−0.4	+1.3

Raphael Collignon

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.5±5.8	+0.8	+4.8
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.4±5.1	+2.5	+2.9
BH to the middle · rally	+4.7±3.1	+2.9	+1.8
FH to the middle · rally	+4.2±3.4	+2.7	+1.5
BH to their backhand · return	+3.5±3.9	+2.6	+0.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.4±5.4	+0.6	+2.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.8±4.5	+0.1	+0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.0±4.9	+0.8	+0.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+1.9±4.1	+0.7	+1.2
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.0±3.6	+2.7	−0.7
FH to the middle · return	+2.6±3.9	+2.0	+0.5

Against Raphael Collignon-like opponents

Jason Kubler v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.4%	36.3%