Game plan

Jimmy Connors v Andy Murray

Every number combines what Jimmy Connors does well with what Andy Murray allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Jimmy Connors wins, best of 3 13%90%: 4%–30% · best of 5: 8%

Serve points won 54.9% / 63.8% Jimmy / Andy · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 13%serve 54.9% / 63.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Jimmy Connors's record against Andy Murray's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Jimmy	Andy
Direction choice	±0.00 ±0.09 better than 56%	+0.14 ±0.03 better than 87%
Shot selection	−0.39 ±0.17 better than 17%	−0.45 ±0.05 better than 13%
Execution	+0.08 ±0.41 better than 72%	+0.94 ±0.16 better than 95%
Points left on the table	2.88 ±0.22 lower than 26%	2.23 ±0.05 lower than 90%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Jimmy Connors serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jimmy wins	v Andy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	26%	62%	70%	58.4%±4.5	39% ▲
Body	15%	57%	59%	52.3%±5.8	2% ▼
T	60%	59%	76%	60.1%±3.2	59%

Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jimmy wins	v Andy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	55%	64%	71%	61.8%±3.3	61% ▲
Body	15%	59%	57%	53.4%±6.2	2% ▼
T	30%	67%	68%	62.8%±4.9	37% ▲

Optimal v Andy Murray: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Andy Murray serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Andy wins	v Jimmy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	71%	70%	67.8%±3.4	41% ▼
Body	8%	67%	59%	62.7%±7.6	0% ▼
T	46%	80%	71%	76.6%±3.4	59% ▲

Optimal v Jimmy Connors: +0.3±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Andy wins	v Jimmy	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	77%	73%	76.7%±3.4	42% ▼
Body	8%	61%	56%	54.7%±7.8	0% ▼
T	45%	70%	70%	67.6%±3.7	58% ▲

Optimal v Jimmy Connors: +0.4±0.5 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Jimmy Connors returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.3	−2.8	+1.2	+2.6±1.6
FH crosscourt	33%	+5.5	+2.3	+0.2	+8.0±2.8
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.6	+1.3	+0.3±3.3
BH through the middle	1%	+6.6	+1.2	−0.1	+7.6±1.6
FH slice through the middle	1%	−4.2	−2.3	+1.4	−5.2±1.4

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.0±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (612 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	−1.7	−0.1	+4.6±1.5
BH down the line	22%	+4.2	+5.3	+0.9	+10.5±3.1
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	−1.5	+0.1	+7.4±2.7
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	−4.1	−0.4	−8.7±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	+3.9	−3.5	+1.0±2.7

Lean BH down the line: +6.0±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (866 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
FH crosscourt	47%	−0.2	+2.0	+2.6	+4.3±2.9
FH through the middle	37%	−3.5	+0.7	+0.7	−2.1±1.9
FH down the line	12%	−1.8	+1.4	+1.5	+1.1±3.7
BH through the middle	2%	+0.1	+0.9	+1.1	+2.1±1.2
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	−0.5	+1.3	+3.3±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (417 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Andy	Value
BH crosscourt	41%	+1.0	+3.9	+1.3	+6.3±2.1
BH through the middle	32%	−2.9	+2.6	+1.1	+0.9±1.6
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+7.0	+1.8	+8.6±3.7
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.0	+0.4	+0.6	−3.0±2.5
BH slice through the middle	3%	−11.3	+1.9	+1.7	−7.6±1.9

Lean BH down the line: +4.8±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (512 returns charted)

Andy Murray returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
FH through the middle	42%	+4.3	+1.4	+0.6	+6.2±1.5
FH down the line	17%	+1.7	+6.2	−0.4	+7.4±3.0
FH crosscourt	16%	+5.5	+1.9	+5.3	+12.7±2.7
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+2.7	+4.2	+2.6±1.8
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+3.1	+1.8	+0.6±2.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (5314 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	+4.6	+4.5	+17.8±2.2
BH through the middle	25%	+6.4	+2.2	+1.3	+9.9±1.5
BH slice through the middle	25%	−4.2	+2.7	+4.8	+3.3±1.3
BH slice crosscourt	15%	+0.5	+2.4	+9.0	+11.9±2.1
BH slice down the line	4%	−8.4	+0.9	+1.9	−5.6±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (4642 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	+1.6	+1.0	−0.9±2.0
FH down the line	28%	−1.8	+2.5	−0.8	−0.1±3.7
FH crosscourt	23%	−0.2	+1.9	+5.2	+6.9±3.6
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−1.3	+2.4	+1.2±1.9
BH inside-in	1%	+2.5	+2.7	+2.5	+7.7±3.2

Lean BH inside-in: +6.4±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1297 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jimmy	Value
BH crosscourt	57%	+1.0	+1.7	+2.5	+5.2±2.2
BH through the middle	29%	−2.9	+0.1	+2.4	−0.4±1.8
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	+2.4	+2.2	+4.4±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.0	−1.9	+2.7	−3.1±2.6
BH slice through the middle	2%	−11.3	−1.4	+0.9	−11.8±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Jimmy Connors

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · serve +1	+7.8±5.3	+4.3	+3.4
BH to their forehand · return	+4.9±2.4	+4.6	+0.2
FH to their backhand · return	+4.6±2.0	+3.4	+1.2
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.3±4.4	+4.7	−0.5
BH to their backhand · return	+4.0±1.8	+3.4	+0.6
BH slice to their forehand · return	+3.1±3.0	+6.0	−2.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−6.1±4.1	−6.8	+0.8
Smash to their backhand · rally	−4.6±3.6	−2.5	−2.1
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−4.1±4.4	−4.2	+0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±1.2	−3.6	+0.4
Smash to their forehand · rally	−2.5±3.6	−2.2	−0.3

Andy Murray

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	+10.3±2.2	+4.1	+6.3
BH to their forehand · return	+8.1±2.6	+3.5	+4.6
BH slice to the middle · return +1	+8.0±1.6	+1.7	+6.3
BH slice to their forehand · return	+7.9±2.6	±0.0	+7.9
FH slice to the middle · return	+7.8±1.9	+3.5	+4.3
BH slice to the middle · return	+7.5±1.2	+2.9	+4.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
Smash to their backhand · rally	−8.1±4.3	−0.8	−7.3
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.5±2.3	−1.1	−2.3
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.2±2.6	+1.6	−4.8
FH volley to their backhand · rally	−3.1±5.0	−1.1	−2.0
BH volley to their backhand · rally	−2.5±5.0	+0.8	−3.4

Against Andy Murray-like opponents

Jimmy Connors v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.4%	38.8%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Learner Tien, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic, Karen Khachanov, Laslo Djere, Nishesh Basavareddy, Richard Gasquet, Andreas Seppi, Marcos Baghdatis, David Nalbandian. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.