Game plan

Johanna Larsson v Arantxa Rus

Every number combines what Johanna Larsson does well with what Arantxa Rus allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Johanna Larsson wins, best of 3 2%90%: 0%–10% · best of 5: 1%

Serve points won 50.3% / 66.2% Johanna / Arantxa · tour 56.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 2%serve 50.3% / 66.2%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Johanna Larsson's record against Arantxa Rus's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Johanna	Arantxa
Direction choice	−0.20 ±0.22 better than 16%	−0.45 ±0.06 better than 1%
Shot selection	−0.07 ±0.27 better than 38%	+0.06 ±0.09 better than 52%
Execution	−0.86 ±0.93 better than 22%	+0.02 ±0.34 better than 62%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Johanna Larsson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Arantxa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	59%	61%	52.7%±9.1	44%
Body	17%	54%	55%	51.5%±11.5	2% ▼
T	39%	60%	69%	61.5%±9.7	54% ▲

Optimal v Arantxa Rus: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Arantxa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	54%	60%	48.9%±8.8	52%
Body	17%	53%	56%	53.1%±11.9	1% ▼
T	32%	60%	64%	59.2%±10.6	47% ▲

Optimal v Arantxa Rus: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Arantxa Rus serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Arantxa wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	32%	64%	72%	69.8%±8.5	36% ▲
Body	28%	56%	68%	66.8%±11.3	13% ▼
T	40%	59%	69%	60.6%±9.5	51% ▲

Optimal v Johanna Larsson: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Arantxa wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	52%	62%	65%	61.2%±9.0	52%
Body	24%	57%	58%	59.3%±11.0	9% ▼
T	24%	63%	70%	68.3%±9.4	39% ▲

Optimal v Johanna Larsson: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Johanna Larsson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	−1.0	−0.2	+3.0±2.5
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+1.4	+3.1	+9.8±3.8
FH slice through the middle	18%	−6.7	−0.6	−2.9	−10.2±2.4
FH down the line	7%	+1.5	+1.8	−3.5	−0.1±3.5
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	−1.0	+1.7	−6.0±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +8.0±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (101 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	+0.1	+1.0	+7.1±2.3
BH crosscourt	27%	+7.7	−0.8	+3.1	+10.0±2.9
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	−0.5	−1.1	+0.5±3.5
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+0.4	+1.0	−4.9±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.7±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (93 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Arantxa	Value
BH through the middle	29%	−2.6	+1.0	−0.5	−2.1±2.4
FH through the middle	29%	−2.7	+0.5	+0.7	−1.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.5	+0.5	−2.4	−0.4±3.2
FH inside-out	17%	+1.4	+1.6	−3.2	−0.2±3.2

Arantxa Rus returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	49%	+4.2	+2.7	+0.7	+7.6±2.7
FH down the line	27%	+1.5	+1.1	−1.6	+1.0±4.1
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.3	−0.5	+0.1	+4.9±4.0
FH slice through the middle	6%	−6.7	−3.6	+0.9	−9.5±2.2
FH slice down the line	2%	−10.5	−2.1	+1.2	−11.4±2.5

Lean FH through the middle: +3.9±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (711 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	54%	+6.0	+1.1	+0.1	+7.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	20%	+7.7	−3.4	±0.0	+4.3±3.2
BH down the line	19%	+2.2	−1.7	+2.3	+2.7±4.3
BH slice through the middle	3%	−6.2	−2.1	+0.5	−7.9±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−1.8	±0.0	−5.9±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +2.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1042 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+1.7	+0.4	−1.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	30%	+0.5	+0.3	±0.0	+0.9±3.1
FH down the line	24%	−0.6	+0.4	−0.9	−1.0±4.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.6	+1.3	+0.5	−0.8±2.6
BH crosscourt	22%	+1.5	−3.1	+0.5	−1.1±3.0
FH through the middle	17%	−2.7	+1.2	+0.4	−1.1±2.5
BH down the line	8%	−0.5	−0.4	−1.1	−2.1±5.2
FH inside-in	8%	+0.7	−3.8	±0.0	−3.1±3.3

Lean BH through the middle: +0.3±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (445 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on hard. Each player's hard record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Johanna Larsson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+5.1±3.2	+1.2	+3.8
BH to the middle · rally	+0.6±2.5	−0.5	+1.0
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.1±3.5	−0.2	+0.1
FH to the middle · rally	−1.2±2.6	−1.6	+0.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±4.8	−2.7	+0.7
FH to the middle · return	−2.7±3.4	−2.0	−0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	−6.2±5.8	+0.9	−7.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−3.9±3.8	−2.0	−1.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.1±3.6	−1.3	−1.9
FH to the middle · return	−2.7±3.4	−2.0	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.0±4.8	−2.7	+0.7

Arantxa Rus

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.5±5.3	+1.1	+6.4
BH to the middle · return	+4.7±3.1	+3.3	+1.4
BH to the middle · rally	+4.0±2.6	+1.6	+2.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.8±5.4	+0.2	+2.6
FH to the middle · return	+2.7±3.6	+1.9	+0.8
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.2±4.1	+0.9	+1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−4.2±3.6	−3.6	−0.6
BH to their backhand · return	−2.6±4.6	−3.3	+0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−1.1±3.7	−3.0	+1.9
FH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.7	+2.2	−0.7
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.0±5.2	−1.4	+3.4

Against Arantxa Rus-like opponents

Johanna Larsson v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	49.2%	35.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Elina Svitolina, Jasmine Paolini, Daria Kasatkina, Jil Teichmann, Nao Hibino, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Lesia Tsurenko, Angelique Kerber. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.