Game plan

Johanna Larsson v Suzan Lamens

Every number combines what Johanna Larsson does well with what Suzan Lamens allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Johanna Larsson wins, best of 3 3%90%: 0%–27% · best of 5: 1%

Serve points won 51.2% / 65.1% Johanna / Suzan · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 3%serve 51.2% / 65.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Johanna Larsson's record against Suzan Lamens's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Johanna	Suzan
Direction choice	−0.20 ±0.22 better than 16%	−0.13 ±0.09 better than 29%
Shot selection	−0.07 ±0.27 better than 38%	+0.27 ±0.13 better than 75%
Execution	−0.86 ±0.93 better than 22%	−0.34 ±0.45 better than 41%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Johanna Larsson serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Suzan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	44%	59%	63%	55.2%±9.7	59% ▲
Body	17%	54%	57%	53.9%±11.8	18%
T	39%	60%	62%	54.2%±10.6	23% ▼

Optimal v Suzan Lamens: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Johanna wins	v Suzan	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	54%	59%	47.8%±9.4	63% ▲
Body	17%	53%	52%	49.1%±12.3	1% ▼
T	32%	60%	62%	56.6%±11.4	36% ▲

Optimal v Suzan Lamens: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Suzan Lamens serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Suzan wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	67%	72%	72.5%±8.4	53% ▲
Body	19%	57%	68%	67.5%±11.9	4% ▼
T	43%	73%	69%	74.2%±8.2	43%

Optimal v Johanna Larsson: +0.6±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Suzan wins	v Johanna	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	71%	65%	70.5%±8.8	44% ▲
Body	21%	60%	58%	61.8%±11.6	6% ▼
T	37%	66%	70%	71.4%±9.1	50% ▲

Optimal v Johanna Larsson: +0.6±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Johanna Larsson returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Suzan	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	−1.0	−1.4	+1.7±2.8
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+1.4	−1.0	+5.7±4.2
FH slice through the middle	18%	−6.7	−0.6	−1.0	−8.3±2.4
FH down the line	7%	+1.5	+1.8	−2.4	+0.9±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−6.6	−1.0	+1.0	−6.6±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.2±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (101 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Suzan	Value
BH through the middle	55%	+6.0	+0.1	+0.6	+6.8±2.6
BH crosscourt	27%	+7.7	−0.8	−2.3	+4.7±3.4
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	−0.5	+1.1	+2.8±4.1
BH slice through the middle	8%	−6.2	+0.4	−1.3	−7.2±2.1

Lean BH through the middle: +2.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (93 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Suzan	Value
BH through the middle	29%	−2.6	+1.0	−0.8	−2.4±2.4
FH through the middle	29%	−2.7	+0.5	−1.0	−3.2±2.2
BH crosscourt	26%	+1.5	+0.5	−0.4	+1.7±3.2
FH inside-out	17%	+1.4	+1.6	−0.2	+2.8±3.5

Suzan Lamens returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	47%	+4.2	+2.0	+0.7	+6.9±2.9
FH down the line	21%	+1.5	−0.1	+0.1	+1.5±4.3
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+0.1	−1.6	+3.8±4.2
FH slice through the middle	9%	−6.7	−1.0	+0.9	−6.8±2.2
FH slice down the line	3%	−10.5	−1.5	±0.0	−12.0±2.0

Lean FH through the middle: +3.7±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (435 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+0.8	+0.1	+7.0±2.7
BH crosscourt	32%	+7.7	+1.2	+2.3	+11.2±3.5
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	−0.1	±0.0	+2.1±4.6
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	−1.8	+0.5	−7.6±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.2	−0.6	±0.0	−4.8±1.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (425 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
FH through the middle	47%	−3.2	+1.0	+0.4	−1.8±3.0
FH crosscourt	27%	+0.5	+0.8	−0.9	+0.5±4.0
FH down the line	20%	−0.6	−3.5	±0.0	−4.1±3.4
FH slice through the middle	5%	−15.2	−0.2	±0.0	−15.4±1.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (99 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Johanna	Value
BH through the middle	44%	−2.6	−0.3	+0.5	−2.4±2.7
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	−0.5	−1.1	−0.1±3.6
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	−2.8	+0.5	−2.8±4.3
FH through the middle	6%	−2.7	−0.2	+0.4	−2.5±2.3
FH inside-out	4%	+1.4	−1.0	±0.0	+0.4±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (257 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Johanna Larsson

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+1.9±3.5	+0.7	+1.2
BH to the middle · rally	+0.7±2.5	−0.3	+1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	−0.2±4.0	−0.9	+0.7
FH to their forehand · return	−0.4±4.2	+1.1	−1.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.8±3.1	−0.1	−0.7
FH to the middle · return	−1.0±3.4	−1.4	+0.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	−5.4±5.5	−0.9	−4.6
FH to the middle · rally	−2.8±3.4	−3.4	+0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.5±3.8	−1.4	−0.1
FH to the middle · return	−1.0±3.4	−1.4	+0.4
FH to the middle · serve +1	−0.8±3.1	−0.1	−0.7

Suzan Lamens

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.4±4.7	+2.2	+3.2
BH to the middle · rally	+4.8±2.7	+3.1	+1.7
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.6±4.8	+2.9	+0.7
BH to the middle · return	+3.4±3.1	+3.1	+0.3
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.0±4.1	−1.0	+4.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+2.7±4.6	+0.8	+1.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−1.3±3.9	−2.0	+0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−1.1±2.7	−0.4	−0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.4±4.3	+1.0	−0.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.1±4.4	+1.2	−0.1
FH to the middle · return	+1.7±4.0	+0.8	+1.0

Against Suzan Lamens-like opponents

Johanna Larsson v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	49.2%	35.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Elina Svitolina, Eva Vedder, Jasmine Paolini, Nadia Podoroska, Jil Teichmann, Maria Sakkari, Lucia Bronzetti, R, Andrea Petkovic. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.