Game plan

Leylah Fernandez v Francesca Schiavone

Every number combines what Leylah Fernandez does well with what Francesca Schiavone allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Leylah Fernandez wins, best of 3 71%90%: 32%–94% · best of 5: 76%

Serve points won 61.8% / 57.4% Leylah / Francesca · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 69%serve 61.8% / 58.1%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Leylah Fernandez's record against Francesca Schiavone's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −0.1 on serve, +10.7 on return vs expectation (179 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Leylah	Francesca
Direction choice	−0.17 ±0.06 better than 23%	+0.21 ±0.11 better than 86%
Shot selection	+0.22 ±0.11 better than 69%	−0.36 ±0.28 better than 18%
Execution	+0.34 ±0.42 better than 74%	+0.31 ±0.80 better than 72%
Points left on the table	3.33 ±0.10 lower than 3%	2.64 ±0.18 lower than 46%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Leylah Fernandez serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Leylah wins	v Francesca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	69%	60%	63.5%±7.4	49% ▲
Body	19%	57%	63%	62.3%±9.9	4% ▼
T	45%	64%	68%	64.7%±7.5	47% ▲

Optimal v Francesca Schiavone: +0.3±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Leylah wins	v Francesca	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	69%	67%	70.0%±6.2	69% ▲
Body	16%	55%	60%	59.2%±11.2	1% ▼
T	30%	71%	69%	75.2%±6.9	30%

Optimal v Francesca Schiavone: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Francesca Schiavone serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Francesca wins	v Leylah	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	73%	67%	73.6%±6.5	56% ▲
Body	13%	59%	58%	60.1%±10.6	0% ▼
T	46%	60%	69%	61.2%±7.8	44% ▼

Optimal v Leylah Fernandez: +1.0±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Francesca wins	v Leylah	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	61%	69%	65.2%±6.9	48% ▼
Body	9%	57%	53%	53.1%±12.3	0% ▼
T	37%	66%	66%	67.3%±7.9	52% ▲

Optimal v Leylah Fernandez: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Leylah Fernandez returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	+2.6	−3.2	+3.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+1.3	−0.5	+6.1±4.0
FH down the line	20%	+1.5	−3.0	−0.9	−2.4±4.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	−0.4	−0.1	−7.2±2.1
FH slice down the line	1%	−10.5	−1.0	+0.9	−10.5±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (626 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	−1.6	+1.5	+5.9±2.3
BH crosscourt	24%	+7.7	+0.7	−2.0	+6.4±3.3
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	−1.0	+1.3	+2.4±4.5
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	−0.3	−1.1	−7.6±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	−1.9	+0.8	−5.2±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (845 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
FH crosscourt	44%	+0.5	±0.0	−2.0	−1.5±4.4
FH through the middle	39%	−3.2	+3.1	+0.8	+0.8±3.1
FH down the line	17%	−0.6	+0.6	−1.4	−1.3±5.2

Lean FH through the middle: +1.3±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (186 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Francesca	Value
BH through the middle	45%	−2.6	+1.0	−0.9	−2.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.5	±0.0	−0.7	+0.8±3.4
BH down the line	15%	−0.5	+1.5	−0.6	+0.3±5.2
FH through the middle	3%	−2.7	+0.1	+0.8	−1.7±2.4
BH slice through the middle	1%	−11.7	−0.9	±0.0	−12.6±1.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.8±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (406 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Francesca Schiavone returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Leylah	Value
FH through the middle	37%	+4.2	+1.9	±0.0	+6.0±2.6
FH down the line	31%	+1.5	+1.7	−1.5	+1.7±4.4
FH slice through the middle	15%	−6.7	+0.4	−0.5	−6.8±2.5
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.3	+0.3	+0.9	+6.5±3.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−10.5	−1.1	−1.2	−12.8±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.9±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (224 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Leylah	Value
BH slice through the middle	29%	−6.2	+0.8	−1.7	−7.2±2.5
BH through the middle	26%	+6.0	+0.8	+1.2	+8.0±2.4
BH crosscourt	18%	+7.7	−1.7	+2.6	+8.6±3.2
BH slice crosscourt	15%	−4.2	+0.6	−1.9	−5.5±3.0
BH down the line	9%	+2.2	+0.7	−3.0	−0.1±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +8.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (242 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Leylah	Value
FH through the middle	50%	−3.2	+1.6	+0.2	−1.4±2.8
FH down the line	19%	−0.6	+2.0	−4.7	−3.2±4.6
FH crosscourt	18%	+0.5	+1.8	−0.3	+2.1±3.9
FH slice through the middle	13%	−15.2	+0.4	+0.3	−14.5±1.9

Lean FH through the middle: +1.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (62 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Leylah	Value
BH through the middle	40%	−2.6	+0.1	+1.7	−0.8±2.4
BH crosscourt	15%	+1.5	+1.2	−2.1	+0.6±3.2
FH through the middle	12%	−2.7	+0.2	+0.2	−2.3±2.1
BH down the line	11%	−0.5	−0.2	−2.0	−2.8±4.5
FH inside-out	10%	+1.4	+0.9	−4.7	−2.4±3.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.8±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (102 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Leylah Fernandez

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.7±3.5	+1.3	+2.5
BH to the middle · rally	+2.7±3.4	−0.5	+3.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.3±5.3	+1.1	+1.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.0±5.5	+2.8	−0.8
FH to their forehand · rally	+1.9±4.8	+3.4	−1.4
BH to the middle · return	+1.3±3.6	+1.8	−0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return +1	−4.4±4.7	−5.2	+0.8
BH to their forehand · return	−4.2±6.2	+1.6	−5.8
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.0±2.8	−5.1	+1.0
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.7±4.8	−2.4	−1.4
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.5±5.4	−1.2	−1.3

Francesca Schiavone

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.1±5.0	+3.2	+3.9
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.4±5.3	+2.5	+2.9
FH to their backhand · return	+3.5±6.0	+2.1	+1.4
BH to the middle · return	+2.2±3.5	−0.6	+2.8
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+1.8±4.3	+1.8	−0.1
FH to the middle · rally	+1.7±3.5	−1.8	+3.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return +1	−5.5±5.9	−4.1	−1.3
BH to the middle · rally	−3.4±3.2	−2.7	−0.8
BH slice to the middle · return	−2.1±3.0	−0.8	−1.3
BH to their backhand · return	−2.0±4.1	+1.0	−3.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.0±5.3	−3.7	+2.7

Against Francesca Schiavone-like opponents

Leylah Fernandez v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.9%	41.8%
Players most similar to Francesca Schiavone	1	57.5%	50.0%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Magdalena Frech, Karolina Muchova, Marta Kostyuk, Petra Martic, Ashleigh Barty, Kiki Bertens, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Saisai Zheng, Amelie Mauresmo. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.