Game plan

Marion Bartoli v Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Every number combines what Marion Bartoli does well with what Elisabetta Cocciaretto allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marion Bartoli wins, best of 3 24%90%: 3%–69% · best of 5: 19%

Serve points won 57.4% / 62.9% Marion / Elisabetta · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 24%serve 57.4% / 62.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marion Bartoli's record against Elisabetta Cocciaretto's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marion	Elisabetta
Direction choice	−0.05 ±0.28 better than 45%	+0.03 ±0.16 better than 58%
Shot selection	+0.45 ±0.27 better than 93%	+0.06 ±0.24 better than 53%
Execution	+0.11 ±1.26 better than 66%	+0.11 ±1.13 better than 66%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marion Bartoli serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marion wins	v Elisabetta	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	63%	70%	67.5%±10.7	62% ▲
Body	16%	49%	51%	42.0%±13.1	1% ▼
T	34%	61%	64%	57.3%±12.6	37% ▲

Optimal v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: +1.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marion wins	v Elisabetta	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	27%	63%	70%	67.3%±11.8	42% ▲
Body	28%	52%	58%	54.2%±13.0	13% ▼
T	45%	58%	60%	53.7%±12.2	45%

Optimal v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: +0.9±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Elisabetta Cocciaretto serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elisabetta wins	v Marion	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	66%	75%	74.7%±9.5	50% ▲
Body	24%	58%	54%	54.5%±13.5	9% ▼
T	40%	71%	66%	69.7%±11.0	41%

Optimal v Marion Bartoli: +1.1±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elisabetta wins	v Marion	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	20%	58%	73%	66.1%±13.9	35% ▲
Body	25%	50%	62%	56.5%±13.4	10% ▼
T	55%	57%	71%	63.5%±11.1	55%

Optimal v Marion Bartoli: +0.8±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marion Bartoli returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elisabetta	Value
FH through the middle	60%	+4.2	+0.5	−1.7	+2.9±3.1
FH crosscourt	34%	+5.3	−2.2	−0.7	+2.4±4.3
FH down the line	5%	+1.5	−0.6	+1.2	+2.1±3.7

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (93 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elisabetta	Value
BH through the middle	57%	+6.0	+0.6	+1.6	+8.2±2.8
BH crosscourt	36%	+7.7	+2.5	−0.3	+9.9±3.6
BH slice through the middle	7%	−6.2	−0.7	+0.9	−6.0±1.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.2±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (67 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marion	Value
FH through the middle	46%	+4.2	+0.3	−2.2	+2.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.3	+2.2	−0.5	+7.0±4.0
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+0.7	+2.8	+5.0±4.4
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	+0.6	±0.0	−6.0±1.4
FH slice through the middle	7%	−6.7	+1.4	−0.7	−6.0±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.3±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (116 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marion	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	±0.0	+0.3	+6.3±3.0
BH down the line	16%	+2.2	±0.0	−0.5	+1.6±4.2
BH crosscourt	14%	+7.7	−0.9	+1.5	+8.3±3.4
BH slice through the middle	10%	−6.2	+1.0	+0.7	−4.5±2.0
FH through the middle	8%	+5.1	+0.6	−2.2	+3.5±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.2±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (128 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marion	Value
BH through the middle	54%	−2.6	+1.4	−0.9	−2.1±2.7
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.5	+1.6	−1.1	+1.9±3.1
BH down the line	17%	−0.5	−4.5	+1.1	−4.0±3.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (71 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Marion Bartoli

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.4±3.8	+1.9	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	+2.0±3.7	+2.1	−0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.3±4.7	+0.9	+0.4
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.8±5.1	+1.1	−0.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.4±4.8	−2.0	+2.5
FH to the middle · return	+0.3±4.3	+2.1	−1.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−5.2±5.9	−2.4	−2.8
BH to their backhand · return	−3.5±5.2	−0.2	−3.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−2.8±5.7	−3.3	+0.4
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.0±5.3	+2.1	−4.1
BH to the middle · return	−0.4±4.0	−1.0	+0.6

Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+9.3±4.2	−0.2	+9.5
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+8.8±5.2	+0.6	+8.2
BH to their forehand · rally	+7.4±6.3	+2.1	+5.3
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.0±5.1	+2.4	−0.4
BH to the middle · rally	+0.6±3.4	−0.6	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.4±5.6	+0.3	+0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−5.0±3.8	−4.2	−0.8
BH to the middle · return	−1.2±4.1	−1.8	+0.6
FH to the middle · return	−0.7±4.3	+2.3	−3.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.4±5.6	+0.3	+0.1
BH to the middle · rally	+0.6±3.4	−0.6	+1.2

Against Elisabetta Cocciaretto-like opponents

Marion Bartoli v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	50.9%	37.5%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Ashlyn Krueger, Jessica Pegula, Shuai Zhang, Heather Watson, Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, Qiang Wang, Andrea Petkovic, Carla Suarez Navarro, Dominika Cibulkova. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.