Game plan

Marketa Vondrousova v Elina Svitolina

Every number combines what Marketa Vondrousova does well with what Elina Svitolina allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marketa Vondrousova wins, best of 3 56%90%: 31%–80% · best of 5: 58%

Serve points won 55.4% / 54.2% Marketa / Elina · tour 56.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 51%serve 55.0% / 54.8%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marketa Vondrousova's record against Elina Svitolina's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +0.9 on serve, +0.4 on return vs expectation (179 points); head-to-head: +3.9 on serve, +5.1 on return vs expectation (384 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marketa	Elina
Direction choice	−0.04 ±0.07 better than 47%	−0.09 ±0.04 better than 37%
Shot selection	−0.68 ±0.17 better than 7%	−0.08 ±0.06 better than 36%
Execution	+0.63 ±0.43 better than 83%	+0.90 ±0.18 better than 88%
Points left on the table	2.99 ±0.12 lower than 11%	2.66 ±0.05 lower than 41%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Marketa Vondrousova +1.08, Elina Svitolina +0.34. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marketa Vondrousova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marketa wins	v Elina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	22%	68%	65%	67.4%±6.0	37% ▲
Body	21%	61%	57%	60.1%±6.1	19% ▼
T	57%	63%	68%	63.0%±4.1	44% ▼

Optimal v Elina Svitolina: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marketa wins	v Elina	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	51%	65%	64%	64.1%±4.2	51%
Body	17%	58%	58%	59.8%±6.4	2% ▼
T	32%	69%	66%	70.4%±5.1	47% ▲

Optimal v Elina Svitolina: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Elina Svitolina serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Elina wins	v Marketa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	39%	69%	61%	64.0%±4.2	54% ▲
Body	17%	56%	59%	57.2%±6.2	2% ▼
T	44%	70%	65%	67.1%±4.5	44%

Optimal v Marketa Vondrousova: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Elina wins	v Marketa	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	69%	64%	67.2%±4.8	44%
Body	15%	59%	56%	59.2%±6.4	0% ▼
T	41%	64%	63%	61.7%±4.5	56% ▲

Optimal v Marketa Vondrousova: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marketa Vondrousova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
FH slice through the middle	52%	−6.7	+2.4	−0.4	−4.8±1.8
FH slice crosscourt	21%	−6.6	+3.7	−0.5	−3.4±2.7
FH through the middle	10%	+4.2	−0.9	−0.3	+3.0±2.4
FH slice down the line	8%	−10.5	−2.1	−1.4	−14.0±3.3
FH crosscourt	5%	+5.3	−1.3	+2.2	+6.2±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +9.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (532 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	+1.3	−0.2	+7.1±1.6
BH crosscourt	19%	+7.7	+0.3	−0.5	+7.6±2.8
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	+0.7	−0.2	−5.7±2.2
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+2.0	−0.3	+3.8±3.7
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	+1.2	−0.9	−12.2±3.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (740 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.2	−0.7	−0.1	−3.9±2.5
FH crosscourt	35%	+0.5	+0.6	+1.8	+3.0±3.7
FH down the line	18%	−0.6	+1.6	±0.0	+1.0±4.1
FH slice through the middle	6%	−15.2	−1.1	±0.0	−16.3±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.4±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (142 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Elina	Value
BH through the middle	50%	−2.6	+2.6	−0.5	−0.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	36%	+1.5	+0.5	+2.0	+4.0±2.7
BH down the line	13%	−0.5	−1.8	−0.2	−2.5±4.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (351 returns charted)

Elina Svitolina returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
FH through the middle	48%	+4.2	+2.2	−2.2	+4.2±1.8
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.3	+1.2	+1.9	+8.4±3.6
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	−0.5	−5.7	−4.7±3.8
FH slice through the middle	12%	−6.7	+1.1	+1.0	−4.6±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−6.6	−1.1	+0.8	−6.9±2.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.7±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2739 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
BH through the middle	48%	+6.0	+1.7	+1.3	+9.1±1.5
BH crosscourt	29%	+7.7	+1.4	−1.7	+7.4±2.6
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+1.5	−2.5	+1.1±3.7
BH slice through the middle	5%	−6.2	−1.8	+1.1	−7.0±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−2.2	+1.2	−5.2±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: +3.3±1.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (2082 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.2	+0.7	+1.6	−0.9±2.4
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	+1.8	−1.0	+1.3±4.1
FH down the line	19%	−0.6	−1.8	−5.3	−7.6±5.0
FH slice through the middle	3%	−15.2	+0.6	+2.0	−12.6±2.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (613 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marketa	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.6	+1.3	−0.2	−1.5±1.8
BH crosscourt	42%	+1.5	+1.5	+1.6	+4.5±2.6
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	−0.3	+0.9	+0.1±4.8
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	−0.5	+1.6	−1.6±2.3
FH inside-out	1%	+1.4	−0.6	−5.3	−4.5±3.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (1205 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.