Game plan

Marta Kostyuk v Caroline Wozniacki

Every number combines what Marta Kostyuk does well with what Caroline Wozniacki allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Marta Kostyuk wins, best of 3 25%90%: 8%–52% · best of 5: 20%

Serve points won 57.0% / 62.2% Marta / Caroline · tour 58.1%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 26%serve 57.1% / 62.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Marta Kostyuk's record against Caroline Wozniacki's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −1.1 on serve, −4.3 on return vs expectation (198 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Marta	Caroline
Direction choice	−0.06 ±0.05 better than 43%	+0.03 ±0.05 better than 59%
Shot selection	+0.13 ±0.09 better than 60%	+0.06 ±0.06 better than 52%
Execution	−0.34 ±0.29 better than 41%	+2.22 ±0.16 better than 100%
Points left on the table	2.69 ±0.07 lower than 36%	2.40 ±0.07 lower than 76%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Marta Kostyuk +1.09, Caroline Wozniacki +1.34. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Marta Kostyuk serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Marta wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	36%	70%	60%	65.1%±3.7	51% ▲
Body	24%	60%	50%	52.8%±5.0	9% ▼
T	40%	72%	63%	66.8%±4.2	40%

Optimal v Caroline Wozniacki: +1.1±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Marta wins	v Caroline	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	73%	60%	67.9%±3.8	62% ▲
Body	26%	58%	47%	49.5%±5.1	11% ▼
T	27%	64%	59%	58.2%±4.6	27%

Optimal v Caroline Wozniacki: +1.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +7.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Caroline Wozniacki serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Marta	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	67%	63%	65.0%±3.4	57% ▲
Body	25%	62%	57%	61.4%±4.8	10% ▼
T	33%	71%	68%	70.9%±3.8	33%

Optimal v Marta Kostyuk: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Caroline wins	v Marta	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	35%	68%	64%	65.9%±4.0	50% ▲
Body	24%	59%	58%	60.3%±5.3	9% ▼
T	41%	63%	61%	59.8%±3.8	41%

Optimal v Marta Kostyuk: +0.4±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.8 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Marta Kostyuk returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.2	+0.6	+0.9	+5.6±1.5
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.3	+0.5	+1.4	+7.2±2.7
FH slice through the middle	17%	−6.7	+1.4	+0.3	−5.0±2.0
FH down the line	12%	+1.5	+4.8	+3.6	+9.9±3.4
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−6.6	+0.9	−1.1	−6.8±2.7

Lean FH down the line: +6.6±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (1346 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.0	−0.2	±0.0	+5.8±1.4
BH crosscourt	29%	+7.7	−2.1	+1.2	+6.8±2.3
BH down the line	10%	+2.2	−1.1	−1.1	−0.1±3.6
BH slice through the middle	4%	−6.2	−0.1	−1.3	−7.6±2.3
BH slice crosscourt	3%	−4.2	−0.7	−0.1	−5.0±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (969 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
FH through the middle	41%	−3.2	+1.5	+1.8	+0.1±2.2
FH crosscourt	28%	+0.5	−1.0	+0.8	+0.3±3.5
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	+0.7	+1.5	+1.6±4.3
FH slice through the middle	4%	−15.2	+0.6	+1.8	−12.8±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−14.9	+0.6	+0.9	−13.4±2.1

Lean FH down the line: +1.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (362 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Caroline	Value
BH through the middle	46%	−2.6	−2.6	+1.8	−3.3±1.9
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.5	−1.1	+0.3	+0.6±2.7
BH down the line	19%	−0.5	+1.0	+2.9	+3.3±4.4
FH inside-out	2%	+1.4	±0.0	+1.5	+2.9±3.0
FH through the middle	1%	−2.7	−0.2	+1.8	−1.0±1.6

Lean BH down the line: +4.0±3.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (471 returns charted)

Caroline Wozniacki returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
FH through the middle	52%	+4.2	+3.4	+0.7	+8.2±1.5
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.3	+3.9	−3.9	+5.3±2.8
FH down the line	16%	+1.5	+6.2	−2.7	+5.0±3.2
FH slice through the middle	7%	−6.7	−1.5	−0.7	−8.9±2.2
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−6.6	−1.7	−3.3	−11.6±2.8

Lean FH through the middle: +3.0±1.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2852 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
BH through the middle	45%	+6.0	+2.8	−0.2	+8.7±1.5
BH crosscourt	36%	+7.7	+4.0	−1.5	+10.2±2.2
BH slice through the middle	9%	−6.2	−1.9	−2.3	−10.4±2.3
BH down the line	5%	+2.2	+5.0	−2.8	+4.3±4.1
BH slice down the line	3%	−12.5	−2.1	−1.6	−16.2±3.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.0±1.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (1809 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.2	+3.7	+0.3	+0.9±1.9
FH down the line	29%	−0.6	+2.5	−2.4	−0.4±3.9
FH crosscourt	26%	+0.5	+3.0	−2.3	+1.3±3.2
BH inside-out	1%	+2.2	+0.3	−1.3	+1.2±3.8
BH through the middle	1%	−1.0	−0.3	−0.1	−1.3±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.9±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (983 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Marta	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.5	+3.5	−2.8	+2.1±2.6
BH through the middle	35%	−2.6	+4.1	−0.1	+1.4±2.0
BH down the line	12%	−0.5	+2.0	−1.3	+0.2±5.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.5±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (834 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Marta Kostyuk

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+8.3±4.6	+3.7	+4.6
FH to their backhand · return	+6.0±5.2	+2.1	+3.9
FH to their backhand · rally	+5.0±4.3	+2.2	+2.8
BH volley to their forehand · rally	+4.6±6.9	−0.2	+4.8
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.8±3.6	+3.5	+0.3
FH slice to the middle · return	+3.6±3.2	+3.0	+0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	−8.4±6.0	+0.2	−8.6
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−6.0±4.4	−5.3	−0.7
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−4.8±4.1	−5.1	+0.3
BH to their backhand · return +1	−3.8±4.3	−5.3	+1.5
BH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±4.9	−2.7	−0.5

Caroline Wozniacki

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+5.6±4.3	+4.6	+1.0
BH to the middle · return +1	+4.9±3.1	+3.8	+1.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.8±3.6	+2.9	+1.9
BH to their backhand · return +1	+4.5±4.3	+2.5	+2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.0±3.6	+1.4	+2.6
FH to the middle · rally	+3.5±2.9	+3.6	−0.1

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	−7.5±4.7	−1.7	−5.8
BH slice to their backhand · rally	−4.0±3.7	−1.3	−2.7
BH slice to the middle · return	−3.1±3.3	−1.7	−1.4
FH slice to the middle · return	−2.6±3.4	−2.5	−0.1
FH slice to the middle · rally	−1.8±3.0	+1.3	−3.2

Against Caroline Wozniacki-like opponents

Marta Kostyuk v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.2%	44.7%
Players most similar to Caroline Wozniacki	2	57.1%	39.4%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Marie Bouzkova, Daria Kasatkina, Emma Navarro, Emma Raducanu, Victoria Azarenka, Linda Fruhvirtova, Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, Alize Cornet, Alison Riske Amritraj, Agnieszka Radwanska. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.