Game plan

Michael Stich v Pablo Carreno Busta

Every number combines what Michael Stich does well with what Pablo Carreno Busta allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Michael Stich wins, best of 3 41%90%: 21%–64% · best of 5: 39%

Serve points won 63.2% / 64.9% Michael / Pablo · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 41%serve 63.2% / 64.9%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Michael Stich's record against Pablo Carreno Busta's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Michael	Pablo
Direction choice	−0.23 ±0.10 better than 10%	−0.01 ±0.09 better than 54%
Shot selection	+0.53 ±0.16 better than 95%	−0.04 ±0.12 better than 48%
Execution	−1.39 ±0.40 better than 13%	+0.75 ±0.44 better than 90%
Points left on the table	4.51 ±0.30 lower than 2%	2.31 ±0.13 lower than 82%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Michael Stich serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Michael wins	v Pablo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	40%	77%	77%	80.6%±3.5	53% ▲
Body	10%	60%	62%	58.8%±9.9	0% ▼
T	51%	80%	78%	82.8%±3.4	47% ▼

Optimal v Pablo Carreno Busta: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Michael wins	v Pablo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	77%	75%	78.9%±3.8	54% ▲
Body	8%	68%	62%	67.4%±9.3	0% ▼
T	51%	75%	74%	76.9%±4.1	46% ▼

Optimal v Pablo Carreno Busta: +0.6±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Pablo Carreno Busta serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pablo wins	v Michael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	70%	75%	72.2%±4.0	61% ▲
Body	19%	65%	71%	72.1%±5.8	20%
T	32%	68%	77%	70.1%±5.0	19% ▼

Optimal v Michael Stich: +0.1±0.6 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +0.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pablo wins	v Michael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	71%	77%	74.6%±4.2	48%
Body	14%	66%	70%	72.5%±6.7	27% ▲
T	38%	66%	75%	68.5%±4.9	25% ▼

Optimal v Michael Stich: +0.4±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Michael Stich returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	−1.1	+1.7	+4.9±1.8
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	+1.1	−1.9	+4.7±3.6
FH down the line	20%	+1.7	−1.3	+0.4	+0.9±3.8
FH slice through the middle	2%	−4.2	−1.0	−0.3	−5.6±2.2
BH slice through the middle	1%	−1.6	+0.5	+1.4	+0.3±1.8

Lean FH through the middle: +1.1±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (949 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
BH slice through the middle	26%	−4.2	−2.0	+1.4	−4.8±2.1
BH through the middle	26%	+6.4	−4.8	−0.3	+1.3±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	20%	+0.5	−1.5	±0.0	−1.0±2.8
BH crosscourt	11%	+8.8	−1.0	+1.6	+9.4±3.0
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	±0.0	+2.4	+6.7±4.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +9.2±2.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (1006 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
FH through the middle	35%	−3.5	−0.3	+0.7	−3.1±2.6
FH down the line	32%	−1.8	−1.7	−0.1	−3.5±4.6
FH crosscourt	25%	−0.2	−0.5	+3.3	+2.6±4.3
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.4	+0.6	+0.3±1.5
FH slice through the middle	3%	−12.7	+0.9	−0.4	−12.1±1.7

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.4±3.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (279 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pablo	Value
BH through the middle	37%	−2.9	−0.1	+0.6	−2.4±1.9
BH crosscourt	21%	+1.0	+1.2	+1.3	+3.5±2.8
BH down the line	19%	−0.2	−2.1	−1.4	−3.7±4.7
BH slice crosscourt	11%	−4.0	±0.0	±0.0	−4.0±1.8
BH slice through the middle	8%	−11.3	−1.2	−1.4	−13.9±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.3±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (639 returns charted)

Pablo Carreno Busta returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+1.3	−1.9	+3.6±2.1
FH slice through the middle	20%	−4.2	−0.3	+1.1	−3.4±1.9
FH crosscourt	18%	+5.5	+0.9	+2.3	+8.7±3.8
FH down the line	11%	+1.7	+2.0	−2.3	+1.4±3.9
FH slice down the line	5%	−4.3	+0.8	±0.0	−3.5±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.5±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (638 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
BH through the middle	40%	+6.4	+1.6	−3.1	+5.0±2.0
BH crosscourt	25%	+8.8	−0.1	+1.9	+10.7±3.0
BH slice through the middle	18%	−4.2	−1.1	−2.0	−7.3±2.2
BH down the line	8%	+4.2	+3.0	−2.0	+5.2±4.3
BH slice crosscourt	6%	+0.5	−2.3	−0.9	−2.6±2.9

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.3±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (665 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	+0.7	−0.6	−3.3±2.6
FH crosscourt	29%	−0.2	−1.4	+1.7	+0.1±4.3
FH down the line	19%	−1.8	−0.1	−2.2	−4.1±4.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (195 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
BH crosscourt	40%	+1.0	−1.7	+1.7	+1.0±2.4
BH through the middle	36%	−2.9	+0.2	−2.5	−5.2±1.8
BH down the line	12%	−0.2	+3.3	±0.0	+3.1±4.4
FH through the middle	7%	−2.9	−1.3	−0.6	−4.8±2.2
FH inside-out	3%	+1.0	−0.5	−2.2	−1.7±3.2

Lean BH down the line: +4.6±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (495 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Michael Stich

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH volley to their forehand · rally	+13.4±8.2	+10.2	+3.2
BH to their backhand · serve +1	+4.8±4.4	+2.1	+2.7
BH slice to the middle · return	+3.3±2.8	+0.3	+3.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	+3.1±3.6	+1.3	+1.7
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+2.9±3.0	+3.8	−0.9
BH slice to their backhand · return +1	+2.9±3.7	+2.2	+0.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH volley to their forehand · rally	−5.7±8.3	−7.0	+1.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−4.9±4.6	−8.5	+3.6
FH to their backhand · return +1	−3.8±4.4	−4.2	+0.4
BH to the middle · return	−3.6±2.3	−2.8	−0.8
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.6±4.8	−4.5	+0.9

Pablo Carreno Busta

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · return	+5.4±5.2	+3.2	+2.2
BH to their backhand · return	+3.8±3.0	+1.0	+2.8
BH to their forehand · return +1	+3.7±6.2	+2.6	+1.1
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.2±3.2	+2.8	+0.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.1±4.6	+2.0	+1.1
FH to the middle · serve +1	+2.9±3.2	+0.8	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · return	−5.7±5.2	−0.5	−5.2
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.8±4.2	+0.6	−4.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−2.9±3.4	+0.6	−3.5
BH to the middle · return	−2.3±2.2	+1.7	−3.9
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.1±2.9	+0.4	−2.5

Against Pablo Carreno Busta-like opponents

Michael Stich v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	66.2%	33.7%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Brandon Nakashima, Valentin Vacherot, Tommy Paul, Alejandro Tabilo, Karen Khachanov, Jaume Munar, Miomir Kecmanovic, Luca Nardi, Bernabe Zapata Miralles. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.