Game plan
Nao Hibino v Arantxa Rus
Every number combines what Nao Hibino does well with what Arantxa Rus allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Nao Hibino's record against Arantxa Rus's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (head-to-head: +7.3 on serve, +10.0 on return vs expectation (135 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Nao | Arantxa |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | −0.14 ±0.10 better than 27% | −0.45 ±0.06 better than 1% |
| Shot selection | −0.13 ±0.14 better than 34% | +0.06 ±0.09 better than 52% |
| Execution | −0.86 ±0.99 better than 22% | +0.02 ±0.34 better than 62% |
| Points left on the table | 2.71 ±0.21 lower than 32% | 3.21 ±0.11 lower than 5% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Nao Hibino serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Nao wins | v Arantxa | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 37% | 63% | 61% | 57.2%±8.3 | 22% ▼ |
| Body | 33% | 60% | 55% | 57.4%±8.5 | 33% |
| T | 30% | 55% | 69% | 56.1%±9.5 | 45% ▲ |
Optimal v Arantxa Rus: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving body every time would read +0.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Nao wins | v Arantxa | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 66% | 60% | 60.5%±8.3 | 46% |
| Body | 17% | 55% | 56% | 55.2%±10.6 | 2% ▼ |
| T | 37% | 60% | 64% | 60.0%±8.4 | 52% ▲ |
Optimal v Arantxa Rus: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Arantxa Rus serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Arantxa wins | v Nao | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 32% | 64% | 70% | 67.7%±8.3 | 47% ▲ |
| Body | 28% | 56% | 55% | 53.6%±9.3 | 13% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 59% | 68% | 59.5%±8.2 | 40% |
Optimal v Nao Hibino: +0.6±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +7.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Arantxa wins | v Nao | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 52% | 62% | 65% | 60.9%±7.3 | 52% |
| Body | 24% | 57% | 62% | 62.8%±8.9 | 9% ▼ |
| T | 24% | 63% | 68% | 66.7%±9.5 | 39% ▲ |
Optimal v Nao Hibino: +0.4±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Nao Hibino returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Arantxa | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 40% | +4.2 | +0.6 | −0.2 | +4.6±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 22% | +1.5 | +1.5 | −3.5 | −0.4±4.1 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.3 | −1.9 | +3.1 | +6.5±3.6 |
| FH slice through the middle | 15% | −6.7 | −2.5 | −2.9 | −12.1±2.4 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 6% | −6.6 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | −5.0±2.3 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +5.8±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (108 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Arantxa | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 47% | +6.0 | −0.4 | +1.0 | +6.6±2.2 |
| BH crosscourt | 30% | +7.7 | −1.5 | +3.1 | +9.3±3.0 |
| BH down the line | 13% | +2.2 | −1.8 | −1.1 | −0.8±3.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 5% | −4.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −3.1±2.7 |
| BH slice through the middle | 5% | −6.2 | +1.3 | +1.0 | −3.9±2.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +3.9±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (186 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Arantxa | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 52% | −3.2 | −0.8 | +0.7 | −3.2±2.5 |
| FH down the line | 34% | −0.6 | −4.0 | −3.2 | −7.7±4.4 |
| FH crosscourt | 14% | +0.5 | +0.6 | −1.1 | ±0.0±3.2 |
Lean FH through the middle: +1.1±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (44 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Arantxa | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 43% | +1.5 | −2.8 | −2.4 | −3.8±3.5 |
| BH through the middle | 36% | −2.6 | −1.6 | −0.5 | −4.7±2.5 |
| BH down the line | 21% | −0.5 | −1.5 | −3.0 | −5.1±4.6 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +0.6±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (47 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
Arantxa Rus returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nao | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.2 | +2.7 | −1.3 | +5.6±2.6 |
| FH down the line | 27% | +1.5 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +4.4±4.3 |
| FH crosscourt | 14% | +5.3 | −0.5 | +2.8 | +7.7±4.2 |
| FH slice through the middle | 6% | −6.7 | −3.6 | +0.5 | −9.8±2.5 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −10.5 | −2.1 | −0.7 | −13.3±2.6 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +3.7±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (711 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nao | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 54% | +6.0 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +7.5±2.3 |
| BH crosscourt | 20% | +7.7 | −3.4 | −0.3 | +4.0±3.3 |
| BH down the line | 19% | +2.2 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −1.5±4.3 |
| BH slice through the middle | 3% | −6.2 | −2.1 | −0.6 | −9.0±2.2 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 2% | −4.2 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −5.9±1.9 |
Lean BH through the middle: +3.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (1042 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nao | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 46% | −3.2 | +1.7 | −0.9 | −2.4±3.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 30% | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.9 | ±0.0±4.2 |
| FH down the line | 24% | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.7±5.2 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +1.3±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (236 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Nao | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 42% | −2.6 | +1.3 | +2.8 | +1.6±2.5 |
| BH crosscourt | 22% | +1.5 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6±3.5 |
| FH through the middle | 17% | −2.7 | +1.2 | −0.9 | −2.4±2.7 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −1.4±5.1 |
| FH inside-in | 8% | +0.7 | −3.8 | −0.9 | −3.9±4.5 |
Lean BH through the middle: +2.0±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (445 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.
Nao Hibino
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their forehand · rally | +4.4±4.7 | +2.0 | +2.4 |
| BH to the middle · return | +4.2±2.8 | +2.1 | +2.1 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +2.5±3.5 | +1.9 | +0.6 |
| BH to the middle · return +1 | +1.5±3.0 | +1.6 | −0.1 |
| BH to the middle · serve +1 | +1.2±3.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.0±4.5 | +2.1 | −1.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −5.6±4.5 | −3.5 | −2.1 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −3.9±3.7 | −0.8 | −3.1 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −3.7±4.2 | −3.1 | −0.7 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.9±4.8 | −1.9 | −1.1 |
| BH to their forehand · return | −2.8±5.2 | −5.4 | +2.7 |
Arantxa Rus
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to the middle · return | +4.4±2.7 | +2.0 | +2.4 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +4.3±3.4 | +0.9 | +3.4 |
| BH to the middle · return +1 | +3.6±2.9 | +1.3 | +2.3 |
| FH to their backhand · return +1 | +2.9±4.7 | ±0.0 | +2.9 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.9±4.2 | +2.1 | +0.8 |
| FH to the middle · rally | +1.7±2.6 | +1.0 | +0.7 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH to their backhand · serve +1 | −4.7±4.5 | −3.2 | −1.5 |
| BH to their backhand · return | −4.0±4.2 | −4.0 | ±0.0 |
| FH to their forehand · return | −2.6±5.2 | −1.8 | −0.9 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −2.2±4.7 | +1.2 | −3.4 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.6±3.7 | −2.6 | +1.0 |
Against Arantxa Rus-like opponents
| Nao Hibino v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 53.3% | 41.1% |
| Arantxa Rus (charted head-to-head) | 1 | 62.1% | 52.2% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Elina Svitolina, Jasmine Paolini, Daria Kasatkina, Jil Teichmann, Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Lesia Tsurenko, Angelique Kerber, Johanna Larsson. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.