Game plan

Pedro Martinez v Sumit Nagal

Every number combines what Pedro Martinez does well with what Sumit Nagal allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Pedro Martinez wins, best of 3 45%90%: 15%–79% · best of 5: 44%

Serve points won 58.9% / 59.7% Pedro / Sumit · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 45%serve 58.9% / 59.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Pedro Martinez's record against Sumit Nagal's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Pedro Martinez serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Pedro wins	v Sumit	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	65%	73%	65.8%±10.7	39% ▼
Body	11%	59%	62%	57.5%±13.8	0% ▼
T	48%	68%	66%	57.4%±11.7	61% ▲

Optimal v Sumit Nagal: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Pedro wins	v Sumit	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	54%	63%	66%	55.9%±10.9	54%
Body	16%	59%	63%	58.7%±14.0	3% ▼
T	30%	62%	74%	64.7%±11.9	43% ▲

Optimal v Sumit Nagal: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Sumit Nagal serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Sumit wins	v Pedro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	75%	71.1%±8.9	63% ▲
Body	12%	59%	70%	65.7%±13.7	0% ▼
T	38%	69%	76%	69.7%±10.4	37%

Optimal v Pedro Martinez: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Sumit wins	v Pedro	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	67%	63%	71%	61.5%±9.0	61% ▼
Body	6%	59%	56%	51.9%±15.6	0% ▼
T	26%	67%	73%	67.9%±11.5	39% ▲

Optimal v Pedro Martinez: +0.6±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +5.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Pedro Martinez returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sumit	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+2.1	±0.0	+6.4±2.8
FH crosscourt	21%	+5.5	+1.1	+3.1	+9.8±4.0
FH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	+1.7	±0.0	−2.5±1.7
FH down the line	12%	+1.7	+1.9	−0.9	+2.6±4.3
FH slice crosscourt	8%	−4.3	+0.6	±0.0	−3.7±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.4±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (426 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sumit	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.4	+2.2	+2.5	+11.0±2.6
BH crosscourt	27%	+8.8	−3.4	+0.6	+6.0±3.4
BH down the line	13%	+4.2	−0.4	+0.4	+4.2±4.1
BH slice through the middle	12%	−4.2	−1.5	±0.0	−5.7±1.8
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.5	±0.0	−1.0±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +5.4±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (517 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sumit	Value
FH through the middle	52%	−3.5	+1.2	−0.6	−2.8±2.7
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	−0.4	+4.1	+3.4±3.7
FH down the line	10%	−1.8	+0.6	+2.1	+0.9±4.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.5±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (107 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Sumit	Value
BH through the middle	41%	−2.9	−0.2	+0.5	−2.6±2.4
BH crosscourt	30%	+1.0	±0.0	−0.1	+0.9±3.0
BH down the line	14%	−0.2	+5.2	−0.9	+4.1±4.3
FH inside-out	7%	+1.0	−0.7	+2.1	+2.4±3.5
FH through the middle	5%	−2.9	−0.7	−0.6	−4.2±2.1

Lean BH down the line: +4.2±4.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (340 returns charted)

Sumit Nagal returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pedro	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	+1.6	+1.7	+7.6±2.6
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	+0.1	+1.6	+3.4±4.0
FH crosscourt	22%	+5.5	+2.1	+6.1	+13.7±3.8

Lean FH through the middle: −0.4±1.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (58 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Pedro	Value
BH through the middle	52%	+6.4	+0.9	+1.6	+8.9±2.3
BH crosscourt	48%	+8.8	±0.0	+1.7	+10.5±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.8±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (52 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Pedro Martinez

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+5.4±3.0	+2.6	+2.7
BH to their backhand · rally	+4.1±2.5	+1.5	+2.6
BH to the middle · return	+4.0±2.3	+1.5	+2.5
FH to the middle · rally	+2.9±2.2	+3.5	−0.7
BH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.0	+2.2	−0.1
BH to their backhand · return	+1.4±3.0	−0.1	+1.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.2±2.8	+0.6	+0.7
BH to their backhand · return	+1.4±3.0	−0.1	+1.5
BH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.0	+2.2	−0.1
FH to the middle · rally	+2.9±2.2	+3.5	−0.7
BH to the middle · return	+4.0±2.3	+1.5	+2.5

Sumit Nagal

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+4.3±2.7	+3.6	+0.7
FH to the middle · return	+3.1±2.5	+1.1	+2.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.1±2.8	+0.6	+1.5
FH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.2	+1.7	+0.4
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.8±2.4	+0.1	+1.6
BH to the middle · rally	+1.7±2.0	+1.2	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.0±3.7	−2.9	+1.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+0.9±3.4	−0.6	+1.5
BH to the middle · rally	+1.7±2.0	+1.2	+0.5
BH to their backhand · rally	+1.8±2.4	+0.1	+1.6
FH to the middle · rally	+2.1±2.2	+1.7	+0.4

Against Sumit Nagal-like opponents

Pedro Martinez v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	58.3%	34.6%