Game plan

Petra Martic v Svetlana Kuznetsova

Every number combines what Petra Martic does well with what Svetlana Kuznetsova allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Petra Martic wins, best of 3 24%90%: 7%–53% · best of 5: 18%

Serve points won 55.2% / 60.6% Petra / Svetlana · tour 55.0%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 27%serve 55.6% / 60.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Petra Martic's record against Svetlana Kuznetsova's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: −10.3 on serve, −11.1 on return vs expectation (105 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Petra	Svetlana
Direction choice	+0.06 ±0.09 better than 64%	+0.24 ±0.09 better than 90%
Shot selection	±0.00 ±0.22 better than 45%	+0.19 ±0.15 better than 64%
Execution	+0.40 ±0.47 better than 75%	+0.37 ±0.49 better than 75%
Points left on the table	2.71 ±0.13 lower than 31%	2.35 ±0.12 lower than 81%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Petra Martic serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Svetlana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	65%	63%	62.3%±6.1	35% ▼
Body	14%	57%	64%	63.8%±8.9	14%
T	36%	72%	71%	75.2%±5.9	51% ▲

Optimal v Svetlana Kuznetsova: +0.8±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +8.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Petra wins	v Svetlana	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	68%	63%	65.5%±6.3	65% ▲
Body	19%	58%	57%	59.3%±9.1	4% ▼
T	32%	60%	62%	56.7%±7.4	31%

Optimal v Svetlana Kuznetsova: +0.7±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Svetlana Kuznetsova serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Svetlana wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	47%	66%	72%	72.4%±5.4	63% ▲
Body	12%	55%	59%	56.2%±8.9	0% ▼
T	40%	61%	67%	60.7%±6.7	37% ▼

Optimal v Petra Martic: +0.9±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +6.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Svetlana wins	v Petra	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	63%	64%	61.3%±6.1	65% ▲
Body	12%	56%	59%	59.2%±9.0	0% ▼
T	38%	59%	69%	64.8%±7.0	35% ▼

Optimal v Petra Martic: +0.3±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Petra Martic returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
FH through the middle	55%	+4.2	+1.1	+1.0	+6.3±2.4
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.3	+2.5	−0.6	+7.1±3.9
FH down the line	14%	+1.5	+0.7	+1.1	+3.3±4.4
FH slice through the middle	2%	−6.7	+0.8	+1.6	−4.2±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.3±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (364 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
BH through the middle	41%	+6.0	−1.3	+1.3	+6.0±2.2
BH crosscourt	21%	+7.7	+0.6	+1.6	+9.9±3.2
BH slice through the middle	18%	−6.2	+0.7	−1.1	−6.6±2.5
BH slice crosscourt	9%	−4.2	−0.4	+1.1	−3.5±3.0
BH down the line	7%	+2.2	+2.0	+3.4	+7.6±4.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.8±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (441 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
FH crosscourt	40%	+0.5	−1.2	±0.0	−0.7±4.3
FH down the line	38%	−0.6	+2.0	−3.9	−2.4±5.1
FH through the middle	22%	−3.2	−1.8	+0.9	−4.1±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.4±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (90 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Svetlana	Value
BH crosscourt	33%	+1.5	+1.7	+0.4	+3.6±3.3
BH through the middle	28%	−2.6	−0.4	+1.1	−1.9±2.6
FH through the middle	13%	−2.7	−1.7	+0.9	−3.5±2.4
FH inside-in	12%	+0.7	−1.2	±0.0	−0.4±4.4
BH down the line	9%	−0.5	−1.6	+2.6	+0.5±4.8

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (189 returns charted)

Svetlana Kuznetsova returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.2	+1.4	+0.6	+6.2±2.4
FH crosscourt	27%	+5.3	+2.0	+3.7	+11.0±4.0
FH slice through the middle	11%	−6.7	+1.2	−0.5	−6.0±2.6
FH down the line	10%	+1.5	+2.3	−2.1	+1.8±4.6
FH slice crosscourt	7%	−6.6	−0.3	+0.4	−6.6±2.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +6.4±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (597 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH through the middle	36%	+6.0	+1.7	+1.1	+8.9±2.4
BH crosscourt	30%	+7.7	−2.6	+2.7	+7.8±3.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−6.2	+0.3	±0.0	−6.0±2.6
BH down the line	11%	+2.2	+0.6	+1.1	+3.8±4.7
BH slice crosscourt	6%	−4.2	+0.2	−1.1	−5.0±2.8

Lean BH through the middle: +4.5±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (541 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
FH through the middle	46%	−3.2	+2.0	+1.9	+0.7±3.0
FH crosscourt	29%	+0.5	−0.1	+0.9	+1.3±4.5
FH down the line	25%	−0.6	+3.8	−3.4	−0.2±5.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.6±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (129 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Petra	Value
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.5	+1.6	+0.5	+3.6±3.1
BH through the middle	25%	−2.6	±0.0	+0.7	−1.9±2.5
BH down the line	10%	−0.5	+4.1	−1.1	+2.4±5.3
FH through the middle	10%	−2.7	+0.7	+1.9	−0.1±2.6
FH inside-in	9%	+0.7	−6.1	+0.9	−4.4±4.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (437 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Petra Martic

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH slice to their forehand · rally	+5.8±4.9	+3.9	+1.8
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.9±3.4	−0.6	+4.5
FH to the middle · serve +1	+3.8±3.3	+1.3	+2.6
FH to their forehand · rally	+3.5±3.5	+2.9	+0.7
BH to the middle · return +1	+3.1±3.4	+1.4	+1.7
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.1±5.3	+0.7	+2.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−3.8±4.6	−1.1	−2.6
FH to their backhand · return	−3.8±5.2	−2.1	−1.6
FH to their forehand · return +1	−3.1±5.0	−2.3	−0.8
BH slice to the middle · return	−1.4±3.4	+0.1	−1.5
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−0.8±4.7	−4.2	+3.4

Svetlana Kuznetsova

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · serve +1	+3.3±3.3	+3.2	+0.1
FH to their backhand · return +1	+3.0±5.1	+2.0	+1.0
BH to their backhand · return +1	+2.5±4.3	+1.8	+0.7
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±3.1	+0.7	+1.8
FH to the middle · return	+1.9±3.2	−0.1	+2.0
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.7±3.6	+0.9	+0.8

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.4±3.4	−4.4	+1.0
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.9±4.8	−4.3	+1.4
BH slice to the middle · rally	−2.9±3.2	−1.5	−1.4
BH to the middle · rally	−2.8±2.8	−2.0	−0.8
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.9±5.2	−3.8	+1.9

Against Svetlana Kuznetsova-like opponents

Petra Martic v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	57.8%	40.3%
Players most similar to Svetlana Kuznetsova	1	45.2%	30.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cristina Bucsa, Sorana Cirstea, Daria Kasatkina, Victoria Azarenka, Shelby Rogers, Simona Halep, Kim Clijsters, Christina Mchale, Ana Ivanovic, Elena Dementieva. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.