Game plan

Raphael Collignon v Steve Darcis

Every number combines what Raphael Collignon does well with what Steve Darcis allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Raphael Collignon wins, best of 3 53%90%: 14%–89% · best of 5: 54%

Serve points won 58.0% / 57.3% Raphael / Steve · tour 61.3%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 53%serve 58.0% / 57.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Raphael Collignon's record against Steve Darcis's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Raphael	Steve
Direction choice	±0.00 ±0.08 better than 56%	−0.13 ±0.11 better than 25%
Shot selection	+0.31 ±0.27 better than 81%	−1.67 ±0.63 better than 0%
Execution	−0.34 ±0.59 better than 52%	−0.22 ±1.15 better than 57%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Raphael Collignon serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Raphael wins	v Steve	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	42%	72%	75%	74.2%±9.4	55% ▲
Body	12%	67%	65%	68.5%±14.1	12%
T	46%	72%	69%	65.8%±11.3	33% ▼

Optimal v Steve Darcis: +0.9±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +4.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Raphael wins	v Steve	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	74%	72%	73.3%±10.7	35% ▼
Body	10%	59%	62%	58.5%±15.4	0% ▼
T	52%	72%	77%	77.3%±9.7	65% ▲

Optimal v Steve Darcis: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Steve Darcis serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Steve wins	v Raphael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	68%	75%	70.5%±10.4	42%
Body	14%	65%	67%	69.2%±13.4	1% ▼
T	44%	75%	76%	76.0%±9.9	57% ▲

Optimal v Raphael Collignon: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Steve wins	v Raphael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	75%	70%	72.9%±10.9	47% ▼
Body	8%	64%	62%	63.4%±16.2	0% ▼
T	40%	65%	67%	58.6%±11.7	53% ▲

Optimal v Raphael Collignon: +0.1±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Raphael Collignon returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Steve	Value
FH through the middle	61%	+4.3	+1.9	−1.2	+5.0±3.0
FH crosscourt	25%	+5.5	+0.9	−0.6	+5.8±3.8
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−0.3	+2.6	+4.1±3.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +0.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (150 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Steve	Value
BH through the middle	43%	+6.4	+1.4	+0.9	+8.7±2.9
BH crosscourt	30%	+8.8	+3.3	−2.0	+10.1±3.4
BH slice crosscourt	9%	+0.5	−1.2	−0.2	−0.9±2.4
BH slice through the middle	9%	−4.2	+0.1	+2.2	−2.0±2.2
BH slice down the line	5%	−8.4	+0.7	+0.4	−7.2±2.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.6±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (122 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Steve	Value
BH through the middle	49%	−2.9	+1.4	+0.5	−1.1±2.6
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+0.2	+3.2	+4.4±3.1
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	+0.6	+2.6	+3.0±3.8
FH through the middle	8%	−2.9	+0.3	+1.8	−0.7±2.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.2±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (65 returns charted)

Steve Darcis returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
FH slice through the middle	65%	−4.2	−0.3	+0.7	−3.9±2.3
FH slice crosscourt	13%	−4.3	+0.1	−1.0	−5.2±2.0
FH through the middle	12%	+4.3	+0.3	+3.1	+7.6±2.6
FH crosscourt	9%	+5.5	−0.6	−2.9	+2.0±3.6

Lean FH slice through the middle: −1.8±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (75 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
BH slice through the middle	53%	−4.2	+3.0	−0.8	−2.0±2.1
BH slice crosscourt	26%	+0.5	+0.3	+1.1	+1.9±2.6
BH slice down the line	16%	−8.4	−0.1	±0.0	−8.5±2.1
BH through the middle	5%	+6.4	+0.6	+2.3	+9.4±2.3

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +3.4±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (93 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Raphael	Value
BH slice through the middle	38%	−11.3	−1.0	±0.0	−12.3±1.6
BH slice crosscourt	28%	−4.0	−1.0	±0.0	−5.0±1.6
BH through the middle	20%	−2.9	+0.3	+0.7	−1.8±2.3
BH slice down the line	15%	−9.3	+0.4	±0.0	−9.0±2.2

Lean BH slice crosscourt: +2.7±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (61 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on clay. Each player's clay record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Raphael Collignon

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	+4.1±2.9	+2.7	+1.3
BH to the middle · rally	+2.9±2.8	+2.9	±0.0
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.7±4.6	+2.5	+0.2
BH to the middle · return	+2.4±3.1	+2.3	+0.1
FH to the middle · return	+1.9±3.4	+2.0	−0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.9±3.2	+2.7	−1.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−7.0±5.1	+0.8	−7.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.5±4.2	+0.8	−4.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.4±4.0	+0.1	−1.5
BH to their forehand · rally	−1.3±4.5	+0.6	−1.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.9±3.2	+2.7	−1.7

Steve Darcis

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+7.5±4.3	+4.8	+2.6
FH to the middle · rally	+4.2±3.0	+0.8	+3.4
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.6±4.5	−0.5	+3.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±4.0	−2.8	+0.6
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.8±5.2	−0.7	−2.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.8±5.2	−0.7	−2.2
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.2±4.0	−2.8	+0.6
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+2.6±4.5	−0.5	+3.0
FH to the middle · rally	+4.2±3.0	+0.8	+3.4
FH to their forehand · rally	+7.5±4.3	+4.8	+2.6

Against Steve Darcis-like opponents

Raphael Collignon v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	61.5%	37.1%