Game plan

Rinky Hijikata v Albert Ramos

Every number combines what Rinky Hijikata does well with what Albert Ramos allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Rinky Hijikata wins, best of 3 50%90%: 21%–79% · best of 5: 50%

Serve points won 60.6% / 60.5% Rinky / Albert · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 50%serve 60.6% / 60.5%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Rinky Hijikata's record against Albert Ramos's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Rinky	Albert
Direction choice	+0.05 ±0.09 better than 70%	+0.07 ±0.10 better than 76%
Shot selection	+0.25 ±0.27 better than 75%	+0.07 ±0.17 better than 61%
Execution	−0.22 ±0.71 better than 57%	+0.14 ±0.35 better than 74%
Points left on the table	2.53 ±0.15 lower than 57%	2.58 ±0.15 lower than 50%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Rinky Hijikata +1.05, Albert Ramos +0.67. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rinky Hijikata serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rinky wins	v Albert	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	67%	74%	68.4%±6.7	61% ▲
Body	8%	53%	71%	62.3%±13.2	0% ▼
T	43%	69%	76%	71.1%±7.5	39% ▼

Optimal v Albert Ramos: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rinky wins	v Albert	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	77%	70%	74.1%±7.0	43% ▼
Body	6%	63%	58%	58.1%±14.4	0% ▼
T	44%	72%	73%	73.2%±7.2	57% ▲

Optimal v Albert Ramos: +0.3±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Albert Ramos serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Albert wins	v Rinky	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	68%	75%	71.2%±7.6	44% ▲
Body	10%	60%	65%	62.0%±13.2	9%
T	60%	61%	71%	56.6%±7.6	47% ▼

Optimal v Rinky Hijikata: +0.8±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +9.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Albert wins	v Rinky	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	60%	65%	75%	67.2%±7.4	56% ▼
Body	8%	61%	58%	56.2%±15.4	0% ▼
T	31%	69%	74%	71.8%±7.6	44% ▲

Optimal v Rinky Hijikata: +0.7±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rinky Hijikata returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Albert	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	−0.6	−0.1	+3.5±2.7
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.5	+1.0	+3.8	+10.3±4.3
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−1.0	−2.7	−2.0±4.5
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	+0.8	+0.6	−2.8±2.0

Lean FH crosscourt: +5.9±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Albert	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+2.1	+1.7	+10.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	−2.7	+2.5	+8.6±3.4
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−2.2	−1.0	+1.1±4.2
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−0.6	+0.9	−4.0±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.3	+0.4	−0.4±2.7

Lean BH through the middle: +4.7±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Albert	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	+0.6	+0.4	−2.5±2.8
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	+1.2	+0.5	+1.5±4.3
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	±0.0	+2.6	+0.8±4.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (77 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Albert	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	−0.1	−0.3	−3.3±2.4
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+2.4	+0.6	+4.0±3.2
BH down the line	22%	−0.2	+0.6	+1.3	+1.6±4.9
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	+0.5	+2.6	+4.0±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.4±2.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (153 returns charted)

Albert Ramos returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
FH through the middle	40%	+4.3	+1.2	+1.1	+6.6±2.7
FH crosscourt	33%	+5.5	+3.8	−0.7	+8.6±4.3
FH down the line	11%	+1.7	+1.2	−0.2	+2.7±4.5
FH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−2.1	+0.9	−5.4±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	+0.3	±0.0	−4.0±1.8

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.4±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (339 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	±0.0	+1.7	+8.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	18%	+8.8	−1.5	−1.9	+5.4±3.5
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−2.1	+0.1	−6.2±2.4
BH down the line	11%	+4.2	+1.6	+1.2	+7.0±4.6
BH slice crosscourt	5%	+0.5	−2.2	−0.9	−2.6±2.5

Lean BH through the middle: +4.2±1.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (504 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
FH crosscourt	47%	−0.2	+0.7	−3.1	−2.6±4.4
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	±0.0	+1.6	−1.8±2.9
FH down the line	9%	−1.8	+0.8	+0.6	−0.4±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +0.2±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (129 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
BH through the middle	42%	−2.9	+0.2	+3.3	+0.7±2.4
BH crosscourt	23%	+1.0	−0.8	+1.9	+2.1±3.3
FH through the middle	14%	−2.9	+1.2	+1.6	±0.0±2.4
FH inside-in	8%	+0.6	−0.8	−3.1	−3.3±4.3
BH down the line	7%	−0.2	−1.2	+3.1	+1.7±4.7

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.4±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (314 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Rinky Hijikata

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+5.9±3.4	+3.0	+3.0
BH to the middle · return	+3.9±2.0	+2.0	+1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	+3.9±3.0	+3.0	+0.9
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.8±3.5	+2.5	+1.3
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.4±2.2	+1.7	+1.7
FH to their backhand · return	+3.3±3.8	+0.7	+2.7

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · rally	−3.2±2.0	−2.4	−0.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	−2.0±3.7	−3.3	+1.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.9±2.4	−2.4	+0.6
BH to the middle · serve +1	−1.8±2.6	−0.3	−1.5
BH slice to the middle · rally	−1.5±2.3	−1.0	−0.5

Albert Ramos

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+3.9±2.0	+1.1	+2.8
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.6±3.5	+2.6	+1.0
BH to the middle · rally	+2.6±1.9	+1.0	+1.6
BH to their backhand · return	+2.3±3.2	−0.2	+2.5
FH to the middle · return	+1.7±2.2	±0.0	+1.7
FH to their backhand · rally	+1.5±2.2	+2.1	−0.6

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.6±3.4	−3.4	−0.1
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−2.8±3.4	−3.8	+1.1
FH to their forehand · return +1	−2.5±4.2	−2.6	+0.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−2.5±2.7	−0.5	−2.0
BH to their backhand · rally	−1.0±2.1	−1.6	+0.6

Against Albert Ramos-like opponents

Rinky Hijikata v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.6%	35.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Cameron Norrie, Gael Monfils, Juncheng Shang, Daniel Elahi Galan, Yoshihito Nishioka, Rafael Nadal, Federico Delbonis, Pablo Cuevas, Thomas Muster, Juan Carlos Ferrero. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.