Game plan

Rinky Hijikata v Jakub Mensik

Every number combines what Rinky Hijikata does well with what Jakub Mensik allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Rinky Hijikata wins, best of 3 29%90%: 7%–67% · best of 5: 25%

Serve points won 59.1% / 63.3% Rinky / Jakub · tour 65.7%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 29%serve 59.1% / 63.3%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. Both were charted enough in the last three seasons, so those carry the most weight. The result is then nudged by Rinky Hijikata's record against Jakub Mensik's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Rinky	Jakub
Direction choice	+0.05 ±0.09 better than 70%	−0.17 ±0.05 better than 18%
Shot selection	+0.25 ±0.27 better than 75%	+0.08 ±0.14 better than 63%
Execution	−0.22 ±0.71 better than 57%	−0.62 ±0.61 better than 40%
Points left on the table	2.53 ±0.15 lower than 57%	2.72 ±0.10 lower than 38%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Structural compatibility

Expected edge per 100 rally shots from style alone: Rinky Hijikata +0.16, Jakub Mensik −0.04. Each player's shot mix weighted by their own skill with each shot and by how much the other gives up against it. This is why some rankings gaps don't hold in a given matchup.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Rinky Hijikata serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Rinky wins	v Jakub	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	48%	67%	74%	68.0%±6.5	44% ▼
Body	8%	53%	65%	54.9%±13.4	0% ▼
T	43%	69%	77%	72.1%±7.0	56% ▲

Optimal v Jakub Mensik: +0.5±0.8 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Rinky wins	v Jakub	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	77%	74%	77.3%±6.2	63% ▲
Body	6%	63%	67%	66.7%±13.3	0% ▼
T	44%	72%	72%	71.8%±7.0	37% ▼

Optimal v Jakub Mensik: +0.6±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +3.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Jakub Mensik serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Jakub wins	v Rinky	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	53%	76%	75%	78.2%±5.5	66% ▲
Body	3%	66%	65%	67.6%±14.3	0% ▼
T	44%	74%	71%	69.8%±6.9	34% ▼

Optimal v Rinky Hijikata: +0.7±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +4.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Jakub wins	v Rinky	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	80%	75%	81.8%±5.2	69% ▲
Body	3%	64%	58%	59.6%±16.5	0% ▼
T	41%	78%	74%	80.0%±5.7	31% ▼

Optimal v Rinky Hijikata: +0.3±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +1.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Rinky Hijikata returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jakub	Value
FH through the middle	53%	+4.3	−0.6	−0.6	+3.0±2.6
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.5	+1.0	−1.1	+5.5±4.4
FH down the line	14%	+1.7	−1.0	−3.3	−2.6±4.4
FH slice through the middle	4%	−4.2	+0.8	−1.4	−4.8±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jakub	Value
BH through the middle	38%	+6.4	+2.1	±0.0	+8.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	28%	+8.8	−2.7	+0.5	+6.6±3.4
BH down the line	12%	+4.2	−2.2	−0.9	+1.2±4.5
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−0.6	−2.0	−6.9±2.4
BH slice crosscourt	8%	+0.5	−1.3	−3.1	−4.0±2.9

Lean BH through the middle: +4.8±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (222 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jakub	Value
FH through the middle	49%	−3.5	+0.6	+0.5	−2.3±2.6
FH crosscourt	36%	−0.2	+1.2	+0.5	+1.5±4.3
FH down the line	14%	−1.8	±0.0	−4.6	−6.3±4.1

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.0±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (77 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Jakub	Value
BH through the middle	39%	−2.9	−0.1	−0.9	−3.8±2.3
BH crosscourt	35%	+1.0	+2.4	−2.5	+0.9±3.0
BH down the line	22%	−0.2	+0.6	+1.6	+1.9±4.9
FH inside-out	5%	+1.0	+0.5	−4.6	−3.1±3.0

Lean BH down the line: +2.9±4.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (153 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Jakub Mensik returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
FH through the middle	54%	+4.3	+1.7	+1.1	+7.1±2.4
FH down the line	19%	+1.7	−1.2	−0.7	−0.3±4.3
FH crosscourt	14%	+5.5	+0.4	−0.2	+5.7±4.3
FH slice through the middle	10%	−4.2	−2.4	+0.9	−5.7±1.9
FH slice crosscourt	2%	−4.3	−2.1	±0.0	−6.4±1.6

Lean FH through the middle: +3.3±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (667 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
BH through the middle	46%	+6.4	+1.0	+1.7	+9.1±2.5
BH down the line	18%	+4.2	−2.7	−1.9	−0.4±4.5
BH crosscourt	15%	+8.8	+1.2	+1.2	+11.2±3.6
BH slice through the middle	11%	−4.2	−1.0	+0.1	−5.1±2.4
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	−2.3	−0.9	−11.6±3.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +6.7±3.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (513 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
FH through the middle	71%	−3.5	+2.1	+1.6	+0.2±2.8
FH down the line	18%	−1.8	+0.2	−3.1	−4.7±4.7
FH crosscourt	11%	−0.2	−3.0	+0.6	−2.6±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +1.2±1.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (175 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Rinky	Value
BH through the middle	57%	−2.9	+1.3	+3.3	+1.8±2.3
BH down the line	22%	−0.2	+1.7	+1.9	+3.4±4.9
BH crosscourt	21%	+1.0	−0.4	+3.1	+3.7±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.2±3.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (301 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average on grass. Each player's grass record is shrunk toward their all-surface one, so a thin sample on it moves the numbers only a little.

Rinky Hijikata

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	+3.9±5.0	+2.5	+1.5
FH to their forehand · return	+3.7±5.5	+4.4	−0.7
FH to the middle · serve +1	+3.6±3.3	+3.8	−0.2
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+3.3±3.0	+2.6	+0.8
FH to their forehand · serve +1	+3.3±4.5	+5.2	−1.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.9±3.3	+2.1	+0.9

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · return	−4.7±5.2	+0.6	−5.4
FH to their backhand · return +1	−4.4±5.3	−5.4	+1.0
FH to their forehand · return +1	−2.9±5.1	−2.5	−0.4
BH to the middle · serve +1	−1.9±3.2	−0.8	−1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.8±3.9	−1.8	−0.1

Jakub Mensik

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to the middle · return	+5.2±3.0	+1.6	+3.5
BH to the middle · return	+4.3±2.9	+0.3	+4.0
BH slice to their backhand · rally	+3.3±3.2	+0.4	+2.9
BH to their backhand · rally	+3.1±3.2	+0.4	+2.6
BH to their backhand · return	+1.8±4.1	±0.0	+1.8
BH to the middle · rally	+1.5±2.6	−0.5	+2.0

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	−5.7±4.0	±0.0	−5.8
FH to their backhand · return +1	−4.2±5.1	−3.0	−1.2
FH to their backhand · return	−4.1±4.8	−1.9	−2.2
BH to their forehand · return	−3.7±5.5	−2.6	−1.1
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.4±4.3	−2.6	−0.9

Against Jakub Mensik-like opponents

Rinky Hijikata v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	59.6%	35.2%

Similar by tactical fingerprint: Hubert Hurkacz, Karen Khachanov, Alexander Shevchenko, Laslo Djere, Alexandre Muller, Arthur Cazaux, Holger Rune, Otto Virtanen, Gregoire Barrere. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.