Game plan
Roger Federer v Grigor Dimitrov
Every number combines what Roger Federer does well with what Grigor Dimitrov allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective
Forecast
Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Roger Federer's record against Grigor Dimitrov's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads (lookalikes: +1.4 on serve, −0.6 on return vs expectation (5959 points); head-to-head: +4.5 on serve, +2.2 on return vs expectation (734 points)). A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.
Head to head, per 100 shots
| Career | Roger | Grigor |
|---|---|---|
| Direction choice | +0.04 ±0.02 better than 68% | −0.07 ±0.05 better than 38% |
| Shot selection | +0.18 ±0.03 better than 72% | −0.42 ±0.09 better than 15% |
| Execution | +0.08 ±0.09 better than 72% | −0.13 ±0.23 better than 61% |
| Points left on the table | 2.74 ±0.04 lower than 35% | 2.78 ±0.07 lower than 32% |
Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.
Serve plan
The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.
Roger Federer serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Grigor | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 76% | 72% | 76.0%±1.7 | 41% ▼ |
| Body | 8% | 68% | 64% | 69.5%±3.5 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 46% | 81% | 74% | 80.5%±1.5 | 59% ▲ |
Optimal v Grigor Dimitrov: +0.4±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Roger wins | v Grigor | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 56% | 78% | 74% | 79.7%±1.5 | 69% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 64% | 65% | 65.9%±4.2 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 38% | 76% | 72% | 75.3%±1.9 | 31% ▼ |
Optimal v Grigor Dimitrov: +0.6±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.5 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Grigor Dimitrov serving
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Now | Grigor wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 74% | 69% | 70.5%±1.8 | 40% ▼ |
| Body | 7% | 67% | 63% | 66.6%±4.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 47% | 79% | 70% | 75.2%±1.9 | 60% ▲ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.4±0.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving T every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Now | Grigor wins | v Roger | Matchup | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 76% | 68% | 72.0%±2.0 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 10% | 64% | 61% | 62.0%±4.1 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 72% | 67% | 66.6%±2.2 | 37% ▼ |
Optimal v Roger Federer: +0.4±0.4 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +3.1 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.
Return plan
Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.
Roger Federer returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Grigor | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 49% | +4.3 | +0.3 | −0.5 | +4.0±0.9 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +1.2±1.9 |
| FH crosscourt | 17% | +5.5 | −0.6 | +0.5 | +5.4±1.8 |
| FH slice through the middle | 5% | −4.2 | +2.8 | +0.3 | −1.1±1.5 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.9 | −0.6 | −2.9±2.9 |
| BH through the middle | 0% | +6.6 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +7.8±2.1 |
Lean BH through the middle: +4.7±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (11918 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Grigor | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 26% | −4.2 | +2.2 | −0.2 | −2.2±1.1 |
| BH through the middle | 25% | +6.4 | −0.8 | +0.7 | +6.4±0.9 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 23% | +0.5 | +3.3 | +1.4 | +5.2±1.6 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +8.8 | −2.0 | −0.2 | +6.6±1.4 |
| BH down the line | 8% | +4.2 | +1.0 | −4.7 | +0.5±2.5 |
| FH inside-out | 0% | +8.6 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +9.0±2.9 |
Lean FH inside-out: +6.3±3.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (16185 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Grigor | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 45% | −3.5 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −3.8±1.4 |
| FH down the line | 28% | −1.8 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +0.3±2.7 |
| FH crosscourt | 20% | −0.2 | −1.5 | −2.4 | −4.1±2.8 |
| BH slice through the middle | 2% | −6.9 | +1.5 | −0.8 | −6.2±2.2 |
| BH through the middle | 1% | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.2±1.6 |
Lean FH down the line: +3.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (3030 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Grigor | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 25% | −4.0 | +1.4 | −0.8 | −3.4±1.8 |
| BH through the middle | 22% | −2.9 | −1.4 | −0.3 | −4.5±0.9 |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | −11.3 | +1.0 | −0.8 | −11.1±1.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 14% | +1.0 | −2.3 | +0.2 | −1.1±1.2 |
| BH down the line | 8% | −0.2 | −0.3 | +2.0 | +1.5±2.8 |
Lean BH down the line: +5.7±2.6 per 100 returns v the current mix (11907 returns charted)
Grigor Dimitrov returning
1st serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 51% | +4.3 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +3.8±0.9 |
| FH down the line | 25% | +1.7 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −0.7±1.8 |
| FH crosscourt | 13% | +5.5 | −0.9 | −0.8 | +3.8±2.3 |
| FH slice through the middle | 7% | −4.2 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −4.5±1.5 |
| FH slice down the line | 2% | −4.3 | +1.0 | −0.4 | −3.7±2.7 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.1±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (2614 returns charted)
1st serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice through the middle | 45% | −4.2 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −4.6±0.8 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 19% | +0.5 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5±1.4 |
| BH through the middle | 14% | +6.4 | −2.7 | −1.4 | +2.3±1.3 |
| BH slice down the line | 9% | −8.4 | +1.8 | −1.9 | −8.5±2.2 |
| BH down the line | 7% | +4.2 | −0.8 | −3.0 | +0.5±2.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 5% | +8.8 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +8.0±2.2 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +9.7±2.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (3178 returns charted)
2nd serve to the forehand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH through the middle | 53% | −3.5 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −4.3±1.5 |
| FH down the line | 25% | −1.8 | +3.1 | −1.4 | −0.1±3.0 |
| FH crosscourt | 18% | −0.2 | +1.9 | −1.5 | +0.1±3.1 |
| FH slice through the middle | 2% | −12.7 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −12.4±2.0 |
| FH slice crosscourt | 1% | −12.5 | +0.3 | −2.7 | −14.9±2.6 |
Lean FH crosscourt: +2.8±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (631 returns charted)
2nd serve to the backhand
| Return | Now | Tour | Own | v Roger | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BH through the middle | 24% | −2.9 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −4.7±1.1 |
| BH slice through the middle | 21% | −11.3 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −14.9±1.4 |
| BH slice crosscourt | 19% | −4.0 | −1.6 | −2.5 | −8.1±1.5 |
| BH down the line | 12% | −0.2 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −1.8±2.8 |
| BH crosscourt | 8% | +1.0 | +0.4 | −0.9 | +0.5±1.9 |
Lean BH crosscourt: +7.2±1.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (2339 returns charted)
Rally plan
Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.
Roger Federer
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smash to their forehand · rally | +4.5±3.3 | +3.2 | +1.3 |
| FH drop shot to their backhand · rally | +3.6±4.6 | +6.0 | −2.4 |
| FH slice to the middle · return | +3.2±1.4 | +2.5 | +0.7 |
| FH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | +2.8±3.9 | +3.2 | −0.4 |
| BH lob to the middle · return +1 | +2.6±2.2 | +1.1 | +1.6 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return | +2.4±1.4 | +1.4 | +1.1 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice to their backhand · serve +1 | −5.3±1.8 | +0.5 | −5.8 |
| BH to their forehand · return +1 | −4.1±2.3 | +0.2 | −4.4 |
| BH volley to their backhand · serve +1 | −4.0±3.8 | +1.0 | −5.0 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | −3.0±1.3 | −0.5 | −2.4 |
| BH to the middle · serve +1 | −2.9±1.1 | −0.4 | −2.4 |
Grigor Dimitrov
Favour
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smash to their forehand · rally | +1.1±3.1 | +1.8 | −0.7 |
| BH slice to their backhand · return +1 | +0.2±1.2 | +1.1 | −0.9 |
| FH slice to their backhand · return | ±0.0±2.5 | +1.0 | −0.9 |
| FH to the middle · serve +1 | −0.2±1.0 | +1.4 | −1.6 |
| FH slice to the middle · return | −0.3±1.4 | +0.3 | −0.6 |
| FH to the middle · return | −0.3±0.7 | +0.6 | −1.0 |
Avoid
| Shot | Edge | Own | Theirs |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH volley to their forehand · rally | −7.6±3.8 | −1.9 | −5.7 |
| BH to their forehand · serve +1 | −6.3±2.9 | −2.5 | −3.7 |
| BH slice to their forehand · return +1 | −5.6±2.4 | −0.5 | −5.1 |
| BH drop shot to their forehand · rally | −5.6±4.1 | −1.4 | −4.2 |
| BH drop shot to their backhand · rally | −5.5±4.4 | −1.7 | −3.8 |
Against Grigor Dimitrov-like opponents
| Roger Federer v | Matches | Serve pts won | Return pts won |
|---|---|---|---|
| All charted opponents | – | 69.4% | 39.1% |
| Players most similar to Grigor Dimitrov | 35 | 70.4% | 36.6% |
| Grigor Dimitrov (charted head-to-head) | 4 | 72.2% | 39.8% |
Similar by tactical fingerprint: Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Lorenzo Musetti, Matteo Berrettini, Marton Fucsovics, Stan Wawrinka, Christopher Oconnell, Dominic Thiem, Tim Van Rijthoven. When two players have rarely met, their records against these lookalikes fill the gap.